| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Makayla Gray
|  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
The attacks in Iran have penetrated two of President Donald Trump’s major agendas. | AP | CRUDE REALITY: Over a week into the war in the Middle East, President Donald Trump is facing the reality of what prices must be paid for the “peace in the Middle East” that he’s championing. The attacks in Iran have penetrated two of Trump’s major agendas: it’s dominating his vast foreign policy portfolio and risks drowning out other conflicts, and it’s spiking prices on the home front just as the GOP is meeting to discuss how to tackle a challenging midterm year. Though the soaring oil prices came down from their overnight high point, few other indicators set off alarms like rising oil costs. The climbdown followed news that the U.S. and other major countries were considering tapping into oil reserves to stanch the spike. But the French government reversed course this morning, saying the G7 is “not there yet,” injecting more uncertainty. The global economy remains on edge, and the “grace period” given to Trump is now well over, analysts told POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre. “President Trump and his entire energy team have had a strong game plan to keep the energy markets stable well before Operation Epic Fury began, and they will continue to review all credible options,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Ben. In Trump’s mind, this is a “very small” price to pay, he said in a post to Truth Social yesterday, adding that oil prices will drop again once the conflict is over. But the tangible consequences are now in plain view: the price of gasoline jumped again today, reaching $3.48 a gallon — marking a 17-percent increase since the first attacks and hitting the highest levels since 2024, per NYT. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all recorded losses this morning, as the markets started pricing in the reality that this is no longer a short confrontation with Iran, Bloomberg’s Abhishek Vishnoi and Winnie Hsu write. Democrats, of course, have seized on the moment as the party coalesces around “affordability” as their campaign mantra. Escalating gas prices are the latest metric they’re using to point to a rising cost of living, NYT’s Tim Balk reports — messaging GOP officials dismissed as “fearmongering.” Trump, meanwhile, will take his latest swing at affordability during a visit to Ohio on Wednesday. But the backdrop of a gas hike — even as Trump touts his “Working Families Tax Cuts” — makes for a much more complicated picture than before the war.
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Learn more. | | | | There’s also the growing human toll. This morning the military released the name of the seventh servicemember killed — 26-year-old Army Sgt. Benjamin Pennington from Kentucky. And new footage of the deadly strike near an elementary school that killed more than 165 people in southern Iran indicates an American Tomahawk missile may have been responsible, despite Trump’s claims that Iran was to blame, AP’s Julia Frankel reports. “A U.S. official familiar with internal deliberations on the matter has told the AP that the strike was likely American.” Trump’s domineering foreign policy agenda is also on the backburner. Talks that would advance the second phase of the peace deal in Gaza are effectively halted, which could threaten the very fragile peace that has become a marquee achievement for the administration, Reuters’ Rami Ayyub and colleagues scoop. Meanwhile, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is pushing the EU to lift sanctions on Russia to allow for more Russian oil exports and ease concerns on oil prices, per AP. And the administration continues to push for an expanding energy sector in Venezuela, lobbying oil firms for increased investment — but their worries about uncertainty and return on investment will not be eased by the current market. Any one of these consequences is likely to be ripe for questions tonight as Trump addresses the House GOP conference at their annual retreat at his resort in Doral, Florida. The visible price of the war will be front and center there: signs near the retreat show gas prices above $3.50 and diesel at almost five dollars, POLITICO’s eagle-eyed Meredith Lee Hill notes on X. Good Monday afternoon — it’s a warm day in the Beltway with signs of spring emerging. This is Ali Bianco. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at abianco@politico.com.
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| | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. ANTHROPIC FIGHTS BACK: Anthropic has filed two separate lawsuits against the Trump administration today, requesting federal courts to reverse the Pentagon’s decision designating the artificial intelligence company a “supply chain risk” over its refusal to allow unrestricted military use of its technology, POLITICO’s Brendan Bordelon reports. “In a lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, Anthropic accused the government of violating its First Amendment rights, exceeding the legal scope of the supply-chain risk statute and circumventing the process through which the president and cabinet secretaries are allowed to cancel government contracts.” 2. TARIFFS FALLOUT: The already momentous Supreme Court decision striking down Trump’s global tariffs may soon have repercussions beyond import taxes, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein writes in. Businesses and universities challenging the president’s attempt to impose a $100,000 fee on applications for H-1B visas argued to the powerful D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals this morning that the high court ruling on tariffs last month dooms Trump’s attempt to discourage the import of specialized workers. “All we are asking the court to do is say the same thing here,” attorney Adam Unikowsky argued for those challenging the new fee. He urged the three-judge panel to reject the administration’s claim that Trump can impose the charge under his broad statutory authority to “impose … any restrictions” on any group of foreigners coming to the U.S., even though Congress explicitly set much lower fees for H-1B visas. DOJ attorney Tiberius Davis urged the judges not to apply the logic of the Supreme Court’s tariffs ruling to the new visa fee. “The Supreme Court made clear they were not touching any other statutes or interpreting any other statutes,” Davis said. At the arguments, Trump appointee Greg Katsas seemed to be doubtful of the challenge, while Biden appointee Michelle Childs sounded likely to block the $100,000 fee. Obama appointee Robert Wilkins’ stance was less clear. 3. YOU ARE NOW IN THE QUEUE: Live Nation, owner of Ticketmaster, is expected to announce a settlement of $200 million with the Justice Department in its antitrust case today, less than a week after the trial began, POLITICO’s Yasmin Khorram scooped. The settlement requires Ticketmaster to allow third-party ticketing companies to sell through its site, and puts a limit on venue contract lengths. “This will revolutionize the ticketing marketplace,” said one of the people who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “These are innovative technological solutions to a very difficult problem with prying open the marketplace.” 4. THE BACKBURNER WAR: Ukraine has responded to the Trump administration’s request to send interceptor drones and a team of drone experts to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told NYT’s Kim Baker. “The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran risks redirecting world attention away from the war in Ukraine. But it has also given Kyiv an opportunity to use its hard-won expertise and advanced technology on a new front,” Baker writes. “Kyiv is hoping to score points with the United States in American-brokered peace talks.”
| | | | POLITICO Policy Outlook: Powering 6G The next generation of mobile communications technology — commonly known as 6G — promises to unlock a bold new digital future. On Wednesday, March 18, POLITICO will convene decision makers from government and industry for incisive conversations that explore what’s next for the 6G rollout — and what stands in the way. Register now to join us. | | | | | 5. 2026 WATCH: There’s a growing slate of independent candidates mounting long-shot bids for Senate deep in Trump country — but the trend could cause a clash with Democratic candidates, which could lead to split votes and spell their downfall, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard writes. Look no further than Montana, where on the same day that GOP Sen. Steve Daines announced his retirement, Seth Bodnar launched his independent bid. “While Democrats privately aren’t thrilled with their candidate options in a state where they’ve had a long track record of success in spite of its rightward national lean, the state Democratic Party immediately was quick to reaffirm its commitment to only backing party members, ‘full stop.’” But the Democratic party still has plenty of intra-party clashes to worry about: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) is facing a serious challenger to his left that could bring an end to his career in tomorrow’s primary, NYT’s Emily Cochrane previews. And in a look at California’s 48th District race, NOTUS’ Oriana Gonzalez profiles perennial candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar, who has mounted three failed bids for Congress but believes the fourth time’s the charm under the state’s newly gerrymandered map — despite no official endorsement from his party. GOP vibe check: Speaker Mike Johnson is dealing with the slimmest possible margins in the House — and it’s made for awkward moments of asking sick members to show up to work or to “ditch their rides and hoof it to the Metro” if streets were closed in order to avoid failed votes, CNN’s Sarah Ferris reports. It could get even worse: “One of their members, Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales, is facing calls to resign his seat … GOP leaders are also closely monitoring the health of Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida, who some fear may need to leave his seat early … And there’s private concern among leadership that their members who lose statewide bids … could threaten to stop showing up altogether.” 6. TRUMP INC.: Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are throwing their support behind a new drone company that’s lobbying the Pentagon to fill a vacuum left by the ban on Chinese drones, WSJ’s Heather Somerville scoops. “Powerus, a drone roll-up company based in West Palm Beach, Fla., is merging with a publicly traded golf-course holding company backed by the Trumps … Investors in the deal include one of the Trumps’ investment vehicles, American Ventures, and Unusual Machines, a drone components company where Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder and advisory board member.” Dig in: ProPublica has published a full (searchable!) database of all of Trump’s financial disclosures, as well as 1,500 of his appointees. 7. IRONY, A CRUEL MISTRESS: “After slashing federal jobs, Trump administration ramps up hiring,” by WaPo’s Emily Davies and Meryl Kornfield: “A year after Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency allies purged hundreds of thousands of federal employees, the Trump administration is ramping up hiring — a reversal that reflects a quiet retreat from one of the president’s defining early priorities … ‘We probably have some skills that we now need to hire back, quite frankly,’ Scott Kupor, the head of the Office of Personnel Management, said in an interview … Even with the renewed hiring, officials expect the federal government to remain far smaller than when Trump took office and unleashed DOGE.” 8. THE MAHA AGENDA?: “Democrats woo MAHA moms ahead of the midterms,” by POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Ruth Reader: “Trump’s executive order on glyphosate, a chemical used in industrial farming, and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s defense of that move, drove a wedge into the Make America Healthy Again movement. … Many grassroots members are channeling that disappointment into action heading into November’s midterm elections. Democrats, meanwhile, are mobilizing to win over these disaffected MAHA voters as internal polling highlights the opportunity.”
| | | | Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | FOR YOUR RADAR — White House spokesman Kush Desai is citing Todd Inman for use of alcohol on the job, harassment of staff, misuse of government resources and failing to attend meetings as reasons he was fired from the National Transportation Safety Board, POLITICO’s Chris Marquette reports. Inman categorically denies “the allegations made in the White House statement,” he told Chris. “It has become increasingly obvious this action was a political hit job. While not my original intent, I look forward to defending my reputation through all legal means possible.” IT’S GOTTA BE THE SHOES — “Trump Is Obsessed With These $145 Shoes—and Won’t Let Anyone Leave Without a Pair,” by WSJ’s Alex Leary: “The hottest and most exclusive MAGA status symbol is a pair of leather oxfords. … Trump has been gifting footwear to agency heads, lawmakers, White House advisers and VIPs. … Trump has fallen in love with Florsheim, the American brand that’s been pairing comfort and style for more than a century. … The president has taken to guessing people’s shoe size in front of them. He asks an aide to put in an order and, a week later, a brown Florsheim box arrives at the White House. Trump sometimes signs the box or attaches a note of gratitude.” PLAYBOOK ARTS SECTION — “For Longtime Kennedy Center Patrons, a ‘Lifeline’ Has Been Cut,” by NYT’s Derrick Bryson Taylor: “Christine Smith, a retired art conservator in Alexandria, Va., has been a subscriber to the center for 25 years, taking in an untold number of ballet and modern dance shows. For the 2025-26 season, for instance, she paid a little more than $1,000 for tickets to a dozen dance performances. … Ms. Smith is far from the only Beltway resident who is worrying, amid all the recent turmoil at the area’s premier performing arts venue, if this beloved cultural institution will ever be the same.” MEDIA MOVES — Veteran CBS News correspondent Scott MacFarlane announced he is leaving the network. “For the next phase of my career, I look forward to some independence and finding new spaces to share my work in line with my personal goals,” he wrote on X. … Rashida Jones, former president of MSNBC, will be CEO of Piers Morgan‘s new media company Uncensored, per Deadline. POST SCRIPT — ESPN is hiring Kareem Copeland, Kent Babb, Chuck Culpepper, Robert Klemko, Tom Schad and Ben Strauss — all former WaPo sports reporters — to join its Investigative, Enterprise and Digital Journalism desk. TRANSITIONS — Keylin Lopez is now manager of federal affairs at the Data Center Coalition. She previously worked at Lot Sixteen. … Jace White is joining Advancing American Freedom as manager of government relations. He previously worked at the National Right to Work Committee. Gadai Bulgac is also joining AAF as a policy analyst in their center for statistical modeling and scientific analysis. He previously was at EPIC. … Kellie Chong has joined Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) as a senior policy adviser. She previously worked for Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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