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By Ali Bianco |
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With help from Eli Okun and Irie Sentner Good Sunday morning. This is Ali Bianco, in the driver’s seat today. Sending all my thoughts to the families in Venezuela’s capital, many of whom may still be searching for their relatives after last week’s earthquakes. Get in touch.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Immigration is the central issue defining the Democratic primary for one of the most competitive toss-up districts in the country this week — a race that could provide a window into how immigration politics will animate the midterms. The Tuesday primary in Colorado’s 8th District between Manny Rutinel and Shannon Bird is the biggest test case yet of whether channeling the explosion of anger from the Democratic base over the Trump administration’s sweeping ICE actions will translate to votes in a district Democrats are targeting as a prime flip opportunity to unseat GOP Rep. Gabe Evans. Immigration is not always a top five issue for voters, but it does have an outsized importance for Latinos, one of the swingiest voting blocs this cycle. Recent polling of Latino voters nationwide from Equis Research shows immigration peaking as a major concern — coming within four points of the economy — in February following the killings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti at the hands of immigration enforcement officers in Minnesota. By March, immigration dropped and was overtaken by concerns over the war with Iran. Yet in Colorado’s 8th — which is 40 percent Latino, with an influential base of Mexican American working class voters — immigration remains salient among the electorate. Past support for ICE has emerged as a bitter dividing line between Rutinel and Bird. Rutinel for months has slammed Bird for a vote she took as a state representative in 2025 — where in committee she was the lone Democrat to oppose advancing an immigration proposal that Rutinel co-sponsored to limit state and local cooperation with ICE. Bird missed the final vote, citing a family emergency, and the bill ultimately passed and was signed into law. The episode is the centerpiece of a blitz of attack ads Rutinel has deployed against Bird to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars. Rutinel accuses her of siding with Trump and allowing ICE to raid schools and hospitals. Bird said she voted “no” over concerns of employees getting hefty fines under the legislation if their bosses cooperated with ICE, and she called the ads “an utter fabrication” in an interview. But if Rutinel wins on Tuesday, three national Democratic operatives who spoke to Playbook said it will come down to Bird’s ICE vote. “That was the nail in the coffin for her,” one Dem operative who backs Rutinel said. ICE’s actions have echoed beyond Colorado, and Democrats have felt the pressure from their base to show resistance. Videos of ICE agents in masks conducting raids in immigrant epicenters set off a national outrage at the start of 2026 and relit a fire under Democrats to campaign on immigration — an issue they lost badly on in 2024. Despite Trump dominating the issue for the GOP for years, polling numbers earlier this year have shown Trump’s approval on immigration cratering. “I think a lot of folks feel like they've been lied to,” Rutinel told Playbook in an interview. “This is clearly not about safety. It's about cruelty and control.” Candidates like Brad Lander in New York’s 10th District grabbed national headlines after being arrested by ICE last year. Calls to reform ICE fueled an immigration funding standoff in Congress that saw DHS shut down for a record 76 days. And Democratic incumbents like Rep. Adriano Espaillat have been felled in part by attacks for being too soft on ICE. The Minnesota Democratic Senate primary between Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is poised to be the next flashpoint over past immigration votes. It echoes everywhere, Bird told Playbook, from farmers to small business workers. She recalled “hearing how their own employees have been targeted, and small businesses having their foot traffic into their stores and restaurants be decreased,” she added.
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It’s also clear in the dueling candidates’ campaign strategies that there’s little daylight on policy between Rutinel and Bird. Both emphasized in interviews the need to hold the administration accountable, implement reforms on the agency, support Dreamers and bolster border security. But the torrent of spending Rutinel has flooded the airwaves with on Bird’s vote attempts to set them clearly apart. Bird has hit back with what she called a record of defending immigrants, from being the first to publish a plan to overhaul the enforcement agency, establishing a legal defense fund and co-sponsoring bills to end arrests at courthouses. “What the district really wants is somebody who is there to be a problem solver, and that's the track record that I bring,” Bird told Playbook. She believes voters “have seen those ads as being over the top.” Yet Democratic operatives are convinced Rutinel’s attacks are landing in part because of Rutinel’s own ties to immigration — as the son of a single Latina immigrant. Voters will believe Rutinel a lot more given his personal history, the Dem operatives said. “I think Democratic primary voters across the district to this day — including Latinos, but not only Latinos — they resonate with that message because it's about who they can trust to stand up to Trump,” Rutinel told Playbook. The winner on Tuesday will ultimately face off against Evans in what's bound to be a nailbiter. Trump has managed to push the district four points towards the GOP since 2012, but Evans carried it in 2024 by just under 2,500 votes. While the cost of living is likely to dominate the general election, operatives still expect either winning candidate to tie Evans to Trump’s mass deportation agenda. And with the Supreme Court expected to rule on Trump’s crusade to end birthright citizenship this week, the issue is likely to get a renewed focus not just in Colorado, but nationally. “Out of touch Democrats Manny Rutinel and Shannon Bird have done nothing but race to the far left, fight amongst themselves, and throw cash out the window throughout their messy primary,” NRCC spokesperson Zach Bannon said in a statement. “Whoever escapes will be a bruised and broke liberal who will be rejected by Colorado voters this November.” SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) on Trump’s relationship with the legislative branch, and the GOP’s priorities looking to the midterms, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “Sometimes he acts as if Congress is merely an appendage, and, frankly, sometimes Congress acts like it’s an appendage. … If I were president, I would be focused on those people that they have, my people, our people, us at the kitchen table. How do you make their life better? And that’s what I think the president should be focused on.” More from POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels — Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) on the Trump administration’s efforts on the war in Iran, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I don't think the war is over. I think there's a détente going on right now … So I'm asking America to hang in there. This is a détente. This is a cease fire. And yeah, they broke the cease fire. We have to answer that as well. They only understand strength.” — Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on Trump’s push for the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “Why do I over the next four months have to try to pursue the impossible task of implementing a bill that simply can't be implemented in that time frame? Why are we doing more things to undermine our confidence in elections, rather than getting the strong message out that will win for Republicans this year? … Let's not mess with that between now and November.” On the pending nomination of Todd Blanche to be AG: “I've got a positive predisposition towards Blanche ... But if there's even a whiff of a lack of independence, then that could influence my vote.”
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9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. 2026 WATCH: Trump saw his preferred candidate cross the finish line last night in Louisiana, as Rep. Julia Letlow clinched the Republican nomination in the runoff for Senate, POLITICO’s Liz Crampton reports. It’s a win for Trump after shooting and missing in the Iowa and Georgia gubernatorial races, and it sets a clear path for another Trump ally to join him in Washington, Liz writes: “With Trump’s backing, Letlow overcame a late surge from rival John Fleming, the hardline conservative state treasurer who was also trying to rally the MAGA base behind him.” Coming attractions: Progressives fresh off their victories in New York are now looking to Colorado’s 1st District, where democratic socialist Melat Kiros is challenging incumbent Rep. Diana DeGette, who has served 15 terms, for the blue Denver seat, CNN’s Arit John writes. It’s the next primary day playing out a trend we’re seen across the country: Democrats are still figuring out what kind of candidate can win them out of the wilderness, while Republicans go all in on Trump, Liz and POLITICO’s Erin Doherty report. 2. WAR REPORT: Iran launched a fresh round of attacks this morning against Bahrain and Kuwait, responding to U.S. airstrikes this weekend in a back-and-forth that is rattling the shaky ceasefire and threatening to derail negotiations, AP’s Jon Gambrell And Melanie Lidman report. Trump accused Iran of violating the agreement and threatened to “complete the job.” But Iran is saber-rattling over the Strait of Hormuz, as it looks to gain complete control over the international waterway. Complicating the peace deal further are tensions over Hezbollah in Lebanon, with Trump now pushing Syria to take the lead in combatting, per AP. 3. THE POLITICO POLL: The latest installment of the POLITICO Poll captures the ranging divisions of opinion on what “MAHA” actually is, as the movement grows fractured ahead of the midterms, POLITICO’s Jessie Blaeser writes. “Some people who support the MAHA movement disagree on some of its major principles. Meanwhile, others who say they’re outside of the movement express views in line with its greatest supporters.” The TL;DR: Under one third of Americans identify as part of “MAHA,” and those that do disproportionately support Trump, a trend that’s held for months. But there’s people who support MAHA but don’t think they’re actively part of the health-focused movement, and the majority of those Americans did not vote for Trump. Vaccine skepticism remains the biggest division, with 65 percent of MAHA supporting reducing vaccines, while 20 percent are neutral and 14 percent do not support it. Pesticides and artificial dyes are the biggest point in common, with MAHA largely wanting it out of foods. 4. IN THE COURTS: The sizing of the Supreme Court’s police force protecting the justices is ballooning, with officials aiming to double its size as substantial threats of political violence continue against the judicial branch. POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein writes a sweeping look at the high court’s push that would see the justices flanked by increased security details, armoured cars and careful protocols that one former court staffer says the justices are “resigned to the need” for. Bending the law: The Trump administration laid the foundation behind the scenes for the obscure Merit Systems Protection Board, which oversees federal worker firings, to allow Trump to essentially erase protections for federal workers and make challenges to any dismissals all the more difficult, NYT’s Jonah Bromwich and colleagues report. “The story of how the ruling came about illustrates the intense effort by the Trump White House to advance its theory of the unitary executive, the belief among many conservatives that the president has sweeping authority over the entire executive branch,” they write.
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5. ICE ICE BABY: Trump announced yesterday that he’s tapping Lance Schroyer, a former state trooper from Oklahoma, to be the next director of ICE, POLITICO’s Ben Johansen and Eric Bazail-Eimil report. The pick of Schroyer, a longtime Oklahoma law enforcement officer, was praised by DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. But with an official nomination, Schroyer now heads to the Senate for confirmation — and ICE hasn’t had a Senate-confirmed director since the Obama administration. 6. BRAVE NEW WORLD: “The AI Politics of 2028 Are Starting Now,” by POLITICO’s Alexander Burns: “[Gina Raimondo] ruled out running for president in 2028 and teamed up with Eric Holcomb, the former Republican governor of Indiana, to launch a massively funded nonprofit to help workers meet the age of AI. … Raimondo and Holcomb said they would step away from frontline politics to build RAISE US. Yet if they succeed, they could soon wield a different kind of power … That is in part because they are collaborating with potential presidential candidates, including Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore — rising stars on the right and left who could have an outsized impact on how voters view AI.” 7. VENEZUELA LATEST: The U.S. is sending another nine-figure aid package to Caracas as the country searches for survivors of last week’s deadly earthquakes, with nearly 1,500 confirmed dead, per WaPo. More U.S. search-and-rescue teams have also been deployed, but the missions have faced complications landing due to significant damage to Venezuela’s biggest airport. Opposition leader MarÃa Corina Machado is planning to return as soon as possible, but U.S. officials are worried her return might set her in conflict with Venezuela’s acting leader Delcy Rodriguez and distract from rescue efforts, per Bloomberg’s Andreina Itriago and Eric Martin. 8. SOUTH OF THE BORDER: “Mexican Officials Have Become Informants for the Trump Administration,” by NYT’s Steve Fisher and colleagues: “At least a dozen elected officials in Mexico — including governors and members of Congress, many from the governing party — have reached out to discuss sharing information about fellow politicians … Mexican politicians aiding U.S. investigations into their colleagues is a deeply worrying sign for Mexico’s dominant political party and its leader, [Claudia Sheinbaum]. It signals that U.S. corruption investigations are gaining speed, just as Ms. Sheinbaum has made opposing them a central bet of her presidency.” 9. TRADING SPACES: “Inside Jamieson Greer’s Quiet Ascent as Trump’s Trade Architect,” by WSJ’s Gavin Bade: “[Jamieson Greer] has taken on a heightened role on Trump’s trade team in recent months after he was seen in Washington as more of a supporting character early in the administration. In nominating [Howard Lutnick] to lead the Commerce Department, Trump said he would have ‘direct responsibility’ over Greer’s office … Greer now takes a leading role in talks not only with India and other Asian nations, but also in the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement this summer.”
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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THE VIBES IN THE DISTRICT — “D.C. is about to get a big tourism bump from America 250,” by WaPo’s Sophia Solano: “Days out from America’s 250th birthday, some Washingtonians are getting ready for a spike in tourism expected to increase traffic, book out hotels and boost local business. Others are making escape plans.” SPOTTED: Tammy Haddad sitting outside Kemo Sabe in Aspen yesterday. OUT AND ABOUT — Kathy 'Coach' Kemper hosted a farewell pickleball round robin at the Congressional Country Club yesterday for the Luxembourg Ambassador and Institute for Education Blockchain Web 3 Diplomatic Steward, Nicole Bintner-Bakshian, followed by lunch on the tennis clubhouse terrace. SPOTTED: Labib Tazwar Rahman, Icelandic Ambassador Svanhildur Hólm Valsdóttir and Logi Bergmann Eiðsson, Victor Shiblie, Kyra Bakshian, R. David Edelman, Luxembourgish Ambassador Nicole Bintner-Bakshian, Shanel Fields, Geo Saba, Omani Ambassador Talal Al Rahbi, Joanne Ke Edelman, Ruth Berry and Finnish Ambassador Leena-Kaisa Mikkola. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Max Becker, SVP at Smith-Free Group, and Alyssa Anderson Becker, chief of staff for Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, welcomed Jeffrey Maxwell on June 19. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Elon Musk … Ziad Ojakli … POLITICO’s Scott Waldman and Amelia Davidson … CNN’s Eli Reyes … Alex Keeney … Erin McPike … Richard Walters of the White House … Carolyn Coda of Invariant … Paul Bonicelli … Allison Aprahamian of Senate Foreign Relations … Megan Bloomgren … Bill Hulse of MassMutual … Pete Nonis … Kate Mills of Monument Advocacy … Rob Tappan … Al-Monitor’s Elizabeth Hagedorn … Bill Greener III … former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta … Jesse Holland … former Reps. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) and Donna Edwards (D-Md.) … Marc Kasowitz … Laura Tyson … Yaffa Fredrick Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the year that Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary race. It was 2020.
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