Republicans want to move on from an expensive and unpopular war that could cost them in the midterms. Iran is making that very difficult. Hostilities in Iran intensified this week after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over.” The U.S. and Iran have engaged in two days of back-and-forth attacks, with the U.S. authorizing several airstrikes inside Iran, and Tehran targeting U.S. allies in the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. The renewed hostilities have sent previously declining oil prices on the rise again, though only modestly compared to pre-ceasefire levels. Despite the price uptick, the oil industry isn’t blinking yet, one executive who is in communication with the White House told POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre. “Didn’t even come up,” the industry executive said of the subject of Iran during recent conversations with White House officials. “From what I am seeing, there is a relief that the president finally understands what must be done. And is doing it. And the industry is silently approving the move. No phones ringing off the hook.” The executive said early in the course of the war with Iran, there were two main camps among the industry: one that favored a quick resolution to the conflict with guarantees that Iran would abandon its nuclear ambitions, and another that pushed for a more aggressive approach to cripple the Iranian regime. Since the ceasefire was put into effect, many in the industry who were among the first group have now come over to the second. “The president had been almost overly sensitive to the transitory rise in gasoline prices,” the oil industry executive said. “Prices will ultimately come down if a real, lasting and acceptable peace deal is effectuated. So just do it. Do what is necessary to prepare the peace.” Even so, many Republicans will wince at any increase after gas prices failed to drop as quickly as they’d hoped less than four months out from midterm elections. The U.S. authorized the attacks in retaliation “for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews,” according to U.S. Central Command. Iran earlier this week hit three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. said, provoking the U.S. to reinstate sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Transit through the waterway has once again slowed to a near halt. It’s a stunning turn that comes just weeks after the U.S. and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the U.S. blockade of the strait and negotiate toward an end to the war. Now, Trump is posting a slew of photos and videos to social media depicting fiery U.S. strikes as Iranians take to the streets carrying banners calling for Trump’s death during the funeral for their slain supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. It’s a liability for Republicans anytime headlines — or Trump’s own remarks — focus on the war rather than the president’s domestic policy. Amid rising prices and cost-of-living concerns, both Republicans and Democrats are trying to center affordability in their midterm campaigns — though the White House has struggled to get Trump to stay on message. And with renewed violence could come renewed congressional war powers votes — especially now that Trump himself has said the ceasefire is over. Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at isentner@politico.com.
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