The Supreme Court delivered an immigration double-whammy this morning, giving the Trump administration the green light to potentially deport over a million immigrants and turn away scores more at the southern border. The pair of rulings offered vindication for administration officials who’ve pushed President Donald Trump’s mass deportation campaign promise forward and beat back legal challenges since the start of Trump’s second term. The result is a dramatically shifted immigration landscape that will send large swaths of immigrants — whose home country conditions have seen little improvement — scrambling to find another status or risk being forced to leave, for some after decades of living and working in the U.S. It’s also the culmination of legal fights that have been playing out in some cases since Trump’s first term in office — and it’s bound to leave immigration advocates reeling. In advocates’ worst case scenario, the decisions could set the stage for one of the largest de-legalizations of immigrants with temporary status across the country. In a 6-3 decision, the justices ruled that U.S. immigration officials can turn away asylum seekers at the southern border, taking a literal definition of what it means to “arrive in” the U.S. and allowing a “metering” policy where officials post on bridges to turn back asylum seekers before they can enter. “We hold that an alien who is standing in Mexico does not ‘arriv[e] in the United States’ by attempting, and failing, to set foot in this country. An alien ‘arrives in the United States’ only when he crosses the border,” Justice Samuel Alito wrote for the majority. And immediately after, in another split decision along ideological lines, the high court ruled the administration could strip the temporary protected status of Haitians and Syrians, despite persistent challenges over how then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem went about ending the decadeslong protections. Alito wrote the courts didn’t have jurisdiction to weigh in on TPS, and dismissed the arguments on possible racial prejudice, per POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein. But the TPS decision is bound to reverberate beyond the roughly 350,000 Haitians and 6,000 Syrians central to the ruling. Top administration officials, chief among them homeland security adviser Stephen Miller, quickly marked the TPS designation as one of their first targets upon returning to the White House over a year ago. One of Noem’s initial moves leading DHS was to terminate TPS for countries, including Venezuela, Honduras, Nicaragua, Nepal and more — impacting more than a million immigrants in all. The case could clear hurdles for targeting all these TPS holders — ramping up the stakes for the administration’s immigration crackdown that’s already become a political lightning rod. The consequences for Haitian immigrants could penetrate deep into the health care workforce, with many serving in nursing roles or as at-home care workers. States like Florida are among those with the highest levels of Haitian immigrants, plus Venezuelans and Nicaraguans to boot. Reaction has been swift: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called it the “correct” decision. Any off-ramp now falls to Congress. TPS for Haitians has already attracted attention from some Republican lawmakers, who recently signed on to a Democrat-led discharge petition that rebuked the administration’s end to the protections. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) warned on X that ending TPS for Haitians will cause “crisis in our hospitals.” The dissent from vulnerable Republicans is notable given the flashpoint that immigration has become for voters at times during Trump’s presidency. It’ll be worth watching if other Republicans — like Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick or Maria Elvira Salazar, who also voted for the discharge petition — make similar calls. But with only days left in the Supreme Court’s opinion season before they recess, there’s room still for an even bigger shift to immigration policy: Trump’s crusade to end birthright citizenship. If today’s proceedings are any indication, the court could be primed to provide more drama. Justice Sonia Sotomayor read her dissent on the asylum case from the bench, a move that typically signals deep disagreement. But this apparently caught Alito off guard, who then took the unusual step of rebutting Sotomayor’s dissent off the cuff — adding he would have expanded his oral statement to address her points if he knew she would be reading from the bench, per Josh. The high court’s next decision day is Monday. Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Send me your tips at abianco@politico.com.
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1. MORE FROM SCOTUS: The Supreme Court struck down a Hawaii law that forced gun owners to get permission before bringing their guns into private establishments and businesses, siding with gun-rights advocates, Josh writes. The justices also dealt a blow to the Make America Healthy Again movement, blocking users of the Roundup weedkiller from suing the Monsanto company for not disclosing a possible cancer risk connected to it, POLITICO’s Pamela King and Marcia Brown report. 2. THE ECONOMY, STUPID: The core personal consumption expenditures price index released this morning showed inflation at an annual rate of 3.4 percent, rising 0.3 percent for the month in the highest reading since October 2023. The all-inclusive reading of the PCE index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, put inflation at 4.1 percent. This all may come crashing down on Trump’s push to keep interest rates low, as Wall Street braces for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to raise rates as early as September, POLITICO’s Sam Sutton writes. 3. BRAVE NEW WORLD: AI-linked super PACs were looking to New York to deliver a knockout blow to other would-be lawmakers calling for stricter state-led regulations. But Alex Bores’ loss wasn’t the hit the groups were aiming for and instead drew outsized attention to the influence of AI money in the race — with regulation supporters arguing the backlash against the gusher of pro-AI spending should embolden candidates to take on the industry, POLITICO’s Brendan Bordelon reports. A source familiar with Leading the Future, the pro-AI super PAC that had spearheaded the push for Bores’ defeat, said the group is unlikely to target another candidate this year with the same negative ad campaign it ran against Bores. 4. COMING ATTRACTIONS: With less than two weeks until NATO’s summit in Ankara, Turkey, NATO allies are preparing to pledge billions for a new arms contract and to scale up alliance-wide weapons production — their latest move to reaffirm their Article 5 commitment, POLITICO’s Laura Kayali and Victor Jack scoop. Trump is keeping the pressure on NATO allies to take on a larger defense role. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is wrapping up his stateside visit today. 5. RFK JR. ON THE LINE: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “urged a Libertarian congressional candidate in Iowa to drop out of a competitive House race to help Republicans keep control of Congress,” WaPo’s Dan Diamond reports, citing an audio recording of a conversation. RFK on the call said he was “acting as a ‘liaison’ with the White House, argued that a Democratic takeover of the House would undermine President Donald Trump’s agenda and suggested that he could help the candidate if he left the race. He also suggested that the candidate could ‘make an agreement’ that would accomplish more than a ‘symbolic run’ for office.” For the record: Rick Stewart, the candidate, told WaPo he “interpreted Kennedy’s roughly 12-minute call as an attempt at quid pro quo,” though he said no specific offer was made. He is not planning to exit the race. “Reached by phone Thursday, Kennedy declined to comment and referred questions to a spokesperson, who did not immediately respond.” 6. THE EPSTEIN SAGA: “The secret settlements protecting Jeffrey Epstein’s friends,” by Jacob Shamsian for the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network: “Members of the House Oversight Committee have discussed issuing subpoenas to people who could testify about secret settlements between some of Jeffrey Epstein’s friends and his accusers. Some of Epstein’s accusers have signed confidential prelitigation settlements with friends of the sex offender whom they have also accused of misconduct … Subpoenas could require witnesses to answer questions even if they have signed a nondisclosure agreement, though the committee would need the majority’s support to issue one.”
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DON THE BUILDER — “Funding for Trump’s Construction Spree Is Murky. Here’s What We Found Out,” by NYT’s Luke Broadwater and colleagues: “[Donald Trump] has claimed he is raising so much money for his ballroom that he could use surplus funds to finance a 250-foot Triumphal Arch that he is commissioning in Washington. … [A] New York Times analysis shows there will be significant taxpayer expense associated with all of Mr. Trump’s building and renovation initiatives. The 18 major construction projects Mr. Trump has undertaken during his second term come with a potential cost of more than $1 billion.” MARK YOUR CALENDAR — The NFL Draft is officially coming to D.C. from April 29-May 1 next year. WILL THEY, WON’T THEY? — The White House appears to be preparing to receive the NBA champion New York Knicks, after owner James Dolan reportedly accepted the invitation for the team to meet with the president. But NY Mag’s Tom Kludt writes in his latest profile that star Jalen Brunson has been non-commital: “We haven’t discussed it,” Brunson said. “But as a team, we’ll discuss it and we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.” BOOK CLUB — SPOTTED at a book party hosted by The New York Times in NYC last night for Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, for their best-seller “Regime Change” ($31.69): Chris Christie, Jonathan Jao, Gayle King, Elie Honig, Maria and Victoria Comella, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Michael Feldman, Jesse Rodriguez, Peggy Noonan, Josh Dawsey, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Jessica Tarlov, John Berman, Kasie Hunt, Eric Schultz, Ari Melber, Tammy Haddad, Abby Livingston, Al Roker, Jonathan Lemire, Tim Alberta, Jeff Zucker, Shane Goldmacher, Lawrence O’Donnell, Jon Reinish, Evan Siegfried, Aidan McLaughlin, Risa Heller, Deborah Roberts, John Santucci and Molly Jong-Fast. OUT AND ABOUT — Irish American Democrats hosted an evening celebrating the contributions of the Irish and the labor movement as America approaches its 250th anniversary. They presented the lifetime achievement award to the president of the Bricklayers Union, Timothy Driscoll, introduced by Ways and Means ranking member Richie Neal (D-Mass.). SPOTTED: Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) and Tim Kennedy (D-N.Y.), Massachusetts Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll, Mary Lou McDonald, Stella O’Leary, John McCarthy, Terry O’Sullivan and Yvette Pena-O’Sullivan, Jean-Paul Itz, Jim Brewer, Alex Nason, Billy Tranghese, Christine Brennan, Bridget Brennan, Paul Nemetz, Zach Dupont, Katie Schulz and Gianluca Nigro. — SPOTTED at the three-day third annual Alliance for Responsible Citizenship conference in London, which wraps today: Speaker Mike Johnson, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Under Secretary of State Sarah Rogers, Glenn Youngkin, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Arthur Brooks, Baroness Philippa Stroud, Michael Shellenberger, Sebastian Gorka, Os Guiness, Seth Dillon, Dave Rubin, Victor Glover, Paul Marshall, Gabe Lyons, Trae Stephens, Brendan McCord, Eric Metaxas, Jay Kramer, Denise Gitsham, Jeff Hasselman, Austin Bishop, Nathan Sales, Katie Biber, Matthew Faraci, Noah Sofio, Marc Wheat, Kevin Roberts, Jim Daly, Gabe and Rebecca Lyons. — The Institute for Legislative Analysis hosted their fourth annual congressional awards reception at the Conservative Partnership Institute last night. SPOTTED: Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Reps. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.), Aaron Bean (R-Fla.), Nicholas Begich (R-Alaska), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Sheri Biggs (R-S.C.), Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.), Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Jeff Crank (R-Colo.), Randy Fine (R-Fla.), Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.), Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.), Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Erin Houchin (R-Ind.), Brad Knott (R-N.C.), Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.), Tracey Mann (R-Kan.), Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), John McGuire (R-Va.), Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Matt Morgan, Brian Chisholm, LaToya Nkongolo, Lauren Arikan, Kathy Szeliga, Julie Hocker, Eric Hargan, Ryan McGowan, Fred McGrath, Emily Hargan, Nathan Hartwig, Margaret Iuculano and Dan Schneider. — The Science Coalition hosted “The Science of Agriculture” last night on Capitol Hill. The event was sponsored by Merck Animal Health. SPOTTED: Reps. G.T. Thompson (R-Penn.), Tracey Mann (R-Kan.), Jim Baird (R-Ind.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Lauren Stump, Jake Dowd and Shannon Kellner. MEDIA MOVE — Stefanie Ilgenfritz is joining WaPo as editor of their long-term investigations team. She previously worked at WSJ. TRANSITION — Bill Curtin has joined Davis Polk as a partner in the mergers & acquisitions practice. He previously worked at Hogan Lovells. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. |
