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‘The vibes are very bad’ in Texas

Sep 09, 2026

By Adam Wren, Dasha Burns, Will Steakin and Megan Messerly

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner

Good Wednesday morning. We’re here in Dallas for the convention — and we’re already getting a pulse check around the extravaganza before the speeches kick off. Get in touch.

In today’s Playbook …

— Republicans worry about a Trump drag in Dallas.

— Democrats fret the general election turn in New Hampshire.

— The Boldfaces: Eric Flores, Anna Paulina Luna, Mike Collins, Michael Whatley, Chris Pappas, John E. Sununu, Stefany Shaheen, Howard Lutnick, Susan Collins, Spencer Cox, Natalie Harp and more.

DRIVING THE DAY

DALLAS — Republicans’ Trump-a-palooza threatens to put the party’s general-election headaches on blast, with candidates finding new ways to keep their distance from President Donald Trump over fears he’ll drag them down in November.

On the ground in Dallas, the early reports aren’t giving Republicans a ton of hope for a turnaround.

“The vibes are very bad,” a Republican lobbyist close to the White House who attended an RNC donor event at the Ritz Carlton last night told us. “Dems are salivating. Our people are debating Israel. Or melting down about this or that. No one is motivated to vote. Only the DSA rise is what’s keeping us in the game.”

For those coming to Texas this week, trepidation reigns about what could transpire on the stage — and what it might mean for lawmakers back home.

In fact, as a person close to the White House told Playbook, the best case scenario might be people tuning out.

“My only hope is that no one watches it since it’s competing versus NFL opening games,” the person said. “Hopefully nobody notices the embarrassing show.”

This person added: “I don’t think it will matter. No one knows about it, no enthusiasm, and it’s during football. Only D.C. people care.”

Eric Flores, who’s running in Texas’ swingy 34th District to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, illustrates the delicate dance that’ll be on display in Dallas. Trump carried Texas’ 34th in 2024, but this year Flores has removed “Trump Endorsed” and “Republican” from his campaign signs following his primary election. (See the before and after.) But Flores is also slated to speak at the convention Thursday.

A spokesperson for Flores noted he had the president’s endorsement pinned on X and still listed on his website — and has used five different sign designs across the district.

“Eric Flores will take to the convention stage later this week and address the real issues that impact the lives of South Texas residents,” a spokesperson said. “His sign design choices are not one of those issues.”

Flores isn’t the only GOPer trying to thread the needle. More than a dozen GOP operatives and strategists told Playbook’s Megan Messerly and POLITICO’s Alex Gangitano that Trump’s speeches tonight and tomorrow must refrain from reflecting pools and helipads and instead focus on slamming socialism and making the argument that — despite persistent pocketbook concerns among voters — the economy is in better hands with Republicans.

The aim is to get low-propensity voters excited and persuade those on the fence by drawing a sharp contrast with Democrats. “There’ll be stuff for everyone. There’ll be red meat. There’ll be good stories,” a senior White House official said. More from Megan and Alex

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Some convention speakers are taking a different tack. Like other battleground Republicans, Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is betting she has a brand separate from the president’s.

“I’m not running away from the president,” Luna, who’s speaking today, told us. “I will obviously tell him my opinions on certain things. But what I think is really unique about our relationship is I’ve been able to advise him from time to time on very important issues.”

That posture is helping candidates like her overcome a “pretty poor” environment, one operative said.

“If you’re just a generic white Republican male, like Mike Collins or [Michael] Whatley … you’re struggling this cycle due to the national environment and the drag that the president’s popularity has on the ticket,” a senior GOP operative working on midterm races told us.

The same operative acknowledged the convention has put some vulnerable Republicans in a “tight spot.” But it’s better than the alternative, they said.

“Might as well try something instead of just having Trump on Twitter all day,” the operative told us. “It’s probably a net wash at the end of the day.”

Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the RNC, called Trump the “biggest turnout machine for our party by far. So, we’re going to put him on the ballot as much as possible and get those voters to the polls in November.”

Still, others aren’t as convinced.

“We’ve proven that you can’t” put Trump on the ballot, a person close to the White House told us. “Could it happen this time? Could the fifth time be the charm? Sure. But we’re defying the odds. Explain to me why this is different.”

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Will and POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin discuss his recent interview with Utah Gov. Spencer Cox — and whether the Republican convention can go head-to-head with the NFL in primetime. Plus, Playbook’s Irie Sentner joins to unpack the convention concerns and the polling problems.

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THE DOWNLOAD

ABOUT LAST NIGHT: Rep. Chris Pappas’ primary victory in New Hampshire last night gave Democrats the nominee they wanted to face off against Republican John E. Sununu — but they’re still wringing their hands as some Dem donor advisers and fundraisers attempt to push more money toward the state, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky reports. Jim Demers, a prominent New Hampshire Dem strategist supporting Pappas but not working for his campaign, said he’s been privately urging several potential 2028 presidential hopefuls to keep stumping through the state to help drum up national attention, resources and volunteers for Pappas.

And the Shaheen political dynasty will live on in New Hampshire after Stefany Shaheen, the eldest daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), dispatched Maura Sullivan and a host of other Democrats in the race to replace Pappas in the 1st District.

A rare Wednesday election: Rhode Island is holding its primary elections today, where the anti-incumbent wave looks poised to sweep aside Democratic Gov. Dan McKee, who could become the first sitting U.S. governor to lose a primary in eight years. ICYMI: Playbook’s Eli Okun covered the backstory on the race back in August

TRADING SPACES: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is heading to Mexico for trade talks today with President Claudia Sheinbaum and his Mexican counterparts, with plans to talk tariffs on Mexican autos and metals, POLITICO’s Ari Hawkins and colleagues scoop. Mexico’s been on the sidelines as the U.S. and Canada have ratcheted up trade tensions, but it has its own future at stake especially as all three countries are in the middle of the USMCA’s six-year review.

The Maine line: GOP Sen. Susan Collins, who has much to lose if the tit-for-tat spat with Canada grows, told POLITICO’s Jessica Piper that the White House “very much underestimated” the impact it could have on Maine farmers.

ELSEWHERE IN DALLAS: Over at the Hyatt Regency, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin will deliver remarks at CBP’s Trade and Cargo Security summit at 12:30 p.m. It’s worth watching how he threads the needle on a trend we’ll see play out at the convention: the mass deportation campaign pushed decidedly to the background. Trump is expected to use his speeches to tout immigration arrests and public safety, but it won’t reprise the deportation rhetoric that became a marquee of his victory, POLITICO’s Myah Ward and Sam Benson report.

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THE FRONT PAGE

ON THE ROAD AGAIN: Utah Gov. Spencer Cox joins JMart at Salt Lake City’s Red Iguana to dig into their legendary mole and other Mexican dishes for a wide-ranging conversation about his new book, “Off Ramp: How to Be a Peacemaker in an Age of Contempt,” and the forces driving America’s political divide. Cox discusses political violence, social media’s role in fueling polarization, his relationship with Trump and why he says he’s not running for president. He also weighs in on the Republican Party’s future, immigration reform and what it will take to rebuild trust and community in American life. Watch on YouTube … Read the Q&A

BRAVE NEW WORLD: As the fierce backlash to the development of data centers becomes one of the defining issues of this midterms season, Build American AI — a nonprofit connected to the pro-AI super PAC network Leading the Future — is pouring $10 million into an advocacy push on the benefits of AI for U.S. workers and communities, Playbook’s Ali Bianco reports. The c4 had announced its intention to “fight back” and sway public opinion on data centers, but the investment starting this week brings one of the AI industry’s biggest players (and some of the biggest donors this cycle) straight into the fray.

The first ad lands in Kansas, with the pro-AI group arguing that data centers “are creating thousands of good-paying jobs.” Their cable and digital ads will also run across Ohio and Wisconsin. Watch the ad

FOLLOW THE MONEY: Trump gave three of his closest aides $45,000 cash gifts for the holidays — and yes, that included Natalie Harp, POLITICO’s Sophia Cai reports. Harp, Chamberlain Harris and Margo Martin each reported the gifts in financial disclosures, coming on top of the aides’ $150,000 salaries.

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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. THE REDISTRICTING RODEO: A pair of contradicting rulings on Missouri's gerrymandered map from the Supreme Court and a federal judge have added another layer of chaos for local election officials, who are staring down a Sept. 19 deadline to make any changes to the ballots, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Aaron Pellish write.

2. WAR REPORT: The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to hits on U.S. warships, with Tehran launching missiles at targets in Jordan in the latest escalation of the war with Iran, per AP’s Konstantin Toropin. All of Iran’s attacks in recent days have failed, Central Command said, but some of them have been described as close calls and Iran’s efforts to hit U.S. naval assets are raising alarm bells that the regime may be getting outside help, WSJ’s Shelby Holliday and Costas Paris report.

3. CHOOSIN’ TEXAS: One of Ken Paxton’s former top aides is now under the spotlight in an online ad in the heated Texas Senate race — but he’s endorsing Democrat James Talarico, NYT’s Beth Reinhard reports. In the ad, David Maxwell talks about his whistleblower complaint that was at the center of Paxton’s 2023 impeachment trial, where he was accused of abusing his power as state attorney general but was acquitted by the Texas Senate.

First in Playbook: The Texas Democratic Party is rolling out a mobile billboard attacking Paxton that will circle around Republicans’ Dallas convention today. See the billboard

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4. LIVE FROM NEW YORK: There’s an intraparty feud playing out in Brooklyn on party control over one of the bluest areas of the country, and it could test the limits for two prominent Brooklynites: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez reports.

5. IN THE GARDEN STATE: While Gov. Mikie Sherrill has taken several scandals straight to the public, she’s been mum on the internal investigation into her Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell, POLITICO’s Dustin Racioppi and Joey Fox write. Her first public statement shared few details, and state and county leaders say they’ve been told essentially nothing beyond what’s been reported. One Dem operative close to party leaders described the handling as “totally insane.”

Susan Collins on Maine, Trump and the GOP’s future

Jonathan Martin heads to Perry’s Lobster Shack for a wide-ranging conversation with Sen. Susan Collins on her reelection fight, the politics of the middle and the Republican Party’s path ahead.

Watch now.

TALK OF THE TOWN

BRITS TAKE MILANO — Hundreds of Washington power players packed into Cafe Milano last night to celebrate the one-year anniversary of the GB News Washington desk, sipping from exceptionally oversized wine glasses and cocktails with the GB News logo embossed on the ice cubes. Key speakers included GB News host and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, White House border czar Tom Homan, British Ambassador Christian Turner, GB News’ Alan McCormick and Bev Turner and State’s Sarah Rogers.

“It’s important that our country — and Europe too — gets a better, more sensible view of America and of the Trump administration [than it gets] through traditional mainstream media, who frankly paint the whole project out to be villainous,” Farage told the crowd. “It’s very important when you go anywhere and do a speech, particularly in a foreign country, to end it on an optimistic, nice, kind, bright note,” he added. “Sorry, I’m going to do the very opposite. I've got terrible news for you. We're hijacking Tom Homan and taking him back with us to the U.K.”

SPOTTED: AAG Harmeet Dhillon, U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro, Qatari Ambassador Meshal Al-Thani, New Zealand Ambassador Chris Seed, Kellyanne Conway, Steve Clemons, Frank McGurn, Courtney McBride, Robb Harleston, Matt Corridoni, Jim O’Neill, Chris Klomp, Ed Martin, Norm Coleman, Michael Froman, Carlos Gutierrez, Vincent Haley, Alexandra Preate, Demetri Sevastopulo, Katy Balls, Ben Leo, Ben Briscoe, Christopher Phelan, Chris Herring, Fred and Genny Ryan, Will Lewis, Alex Azar, Adele and David Malpass, Angelos Frangopoulos, Scott Glebe, Kara Calvert, George and Kristen Lund, Susan and Frank Dunlevey, Peter Nonis, Paula Dobriansky, Tammy Haddad, Robby Soave, Molly Ball, Francesca Chambers and Zachary Schermele.

MEDIAWATCH — NOTUS is no longer. As of today, the news site has rebranded as “The Washington Sun,” after a trademark lawsuit several months ago dashed a planned rebrand as “The Star,” per NYT’s Katie Robertson. They’re also introducing a $9.99 subscription paywall, and an exclusive licensing deal with the folks at Capital Weather for a daily weather forecast.

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “National Guardsman Charged With Pointing Gun at Another Soldier on D.C. Patrol,” by NYT’s Chris Cameron: “A National Guard soldier has been charged with felony assault, accused of pointing his service gun at another soldier while they were on patrol in Washington, D.C., last month. Zion Mitchell, 21, of Macon, Ga., drew his handgun and pointed it at a female Guard member during an argument … The office of Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington, charged Mr. Mitchell with two felonies: assault with a dangerous weapon and possessing a firearm during a crime of violence.”

TRANSITIONS — Ben Finfrock is now press secretary for Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). He previously worked for Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). … Erica Froyd has joined McAllister & Quinn as VP of health care. She previously worked at the Association of American Medical Colleges. … Marissa Bostick has joined the National Retail Federation as SVP and general counsel. She previously worked at Sideman & Bancroft. …

… Emily Matthews has joined the Department of Energy as deputy press secretary. She was previously communications director to Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas). … Geof Kahn has joined Salesforce as VP of federal government affairs & public policy. He previously worked at Valinor. … Carlos Roa is now a director at Continental Strategy. He previously worked at Janus Forum and the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy.

WEDDING — Amit Jani, president of ASJ Consulting Group and a Biden DHS and DOD alum, and Minal Patel, an executive with Immunera, got married on Aug. 29. They were married by U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya surrounded by family and friends from around the world at a cozy rooftop in Amit’s hometown of Jersey City. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) … Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Sarah Elfreth (D-Md.) … WSJ’s Kara Voght … WaPo’s Robert Samuels … Rolling Stone’s Matt Bai … The Bulwark’s Jonathan Cohn … AP’s Matt Lee … David Freedlander … Breitbart’s Matt Boyle … Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval … CAP’s Glen Fukushima … Cherie Harder of the Trinity Forum … Rachel Rizzo … DOJ’s Audrey Cook … Brigid Mary McDonnell of Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-Tenn.) office … Dan Brandt … Katelynn Vogt of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace … Ken Lieberthal … Bridget Hagan of Blackstone … Aimee Steel Lubin of Holland & Knight … Brian Wommack … former Reps. John Duarte (R-Calif.), Glenn Nye (D-Va.) and Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) … J. Arthur Bloom … Dwayne Carson … Michael Greenwald of Amazon Web Services … Katelyn Israelski … Nawaid Ladak … Vanessa Oblinger-Santos … Katharine Fegley … Henrique Ferreira of Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-N.J.) office … Mackenzie Keeley of Ridgeline Advocacy Group … American Conservation Coalition’s Sam Kessler … Kaelan Hollon of the Herald Group … Mike Leventhal … Michael Harper … Diego Sánchez

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