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By Eli Okun |
Presented by |
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THE CATCH-UP |
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BREAKING: President Donald Trump plans to sign a childhood vaccines executive order today, CBS’ Richard Escobedo and Jennifer Jacobs report.
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President Donald Trump said he too will demand compensation for damages from Iran. | Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP |
WAR REPORT: Oil has Trump over a political barrel ahead of the midterms. As the latest phase of the Iran war drags on, without either resolution or significant escalation, the rising cost of oil remains Republicans’ greatest liability heading into the fall — combining the war’s unpopularity and enduring cost-of-living concerns into one package for Democrats to hammer the party in power. Today, U.S. oil prices once again spiked past $80 a barrel after hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal pushed them lower last week. Brent crude, the global benchmark, reached roughly $85 a barrel. And the Energy Department said the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve has now dipped below 300 million barrels — hitting its lowest level since 1983, per CNBC’s Spencer Kimball, after Trump released lots of domestic oil to try to blunt the Hormuz impact. The rise comes despite Iran saying today that it’s close to reaching a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said its negotiations are “progressing smoothly and constructively” and just ironing out the final technical details now, Reuters’ Nayera Abdallah and colleagues report. But steep Iranian demands for U.S. concessions are keeping markets pessimistic about prospects for a breakthrough. Iran’s weekend announcement that it will seek American compensation for damages from the war, along with the end of sanctions, the unfreezing of funds and a military pullback, could be difficult for even a Trump in dealmaker mode to swallow. And this doesn’t sound like dealmaker mode: Trump posted on Truth Social this afternoon that he’s “likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts” — and compensation for all the families of protesters the Iranian government has killed. He just amended his demand to add that in negotiations, “Iran should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza” as well. If the U.S. and Iran can make progress on getting maritime traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again, relief for consumers — and easing political pressure on Republicans — could follow relatively quickly, as it did after the memorandum of understanding earlier this year. But in the meantime, rising oil prices keep pushing overall inflation higher, filtering throughout the economy in myriad ways. It shows up in an agriculture-heavy Wisconsin district, for instance, in the form of higher fertilizer and fuel prices that have worsened a crisis for many farmers, Reuters’ Renee Hickman reports from Eau Claire. If Democrat Rebecca Cooke wins tomorrow’s primary, she’ll take on GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden in an area where the impact of Trump’s other agricultural policies — particularly fallout from tariffs — is already top of mind. (First, Cooke has to fend off a surging left-wing challenge from Emily Berge, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Andrew Howard report, though Cooke has a broad coalition including progressives.) More war fallout: In southern Iran, like the tourist island destination of Qeshm, a consistent barrage of violence over the past half-year has really “never ended,” NYT’s Farnaz Fassihi and Shirin Hakim report — with devastating economic consequences for locals. Back in the U.S., as states worry about recent suspected Iranian cyberattacks on water systems, experts say a Biden-era EPA rule, which Republican states successfully sued to stop, could have limited some of the vulnerability, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and Amy Wang report. Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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A message from AHIP: Congress enacted the No Surprises Act to protect consumers from surprise medical bills and to lower healthcare costs. But egregious abuse of the law by certain private equity-backed providers is causing billions in wasteful spending and Americans are footing the bill. Policy action is needed to stop this windfall. Learn more. |
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8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. BILL OF HEALTH: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a new proposed regulation intended to get more chemicals out of the nation’s food supply. The rule would go after a longstanding loophole by forcing food companies to tell the FDA when they add certain substances to their products — a mandate that doesn’t currently exist for chemicals generally considered safe, like some preservatives or sweeteners. It’s a significant MAHA transparency priority. More from WaPo 2. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ad it up: 314 Action, the group pushing to elect Democratic scientist candidates, is launching a $750,000 campaign against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Playbook’s Ali Bianco scoops. The campaign is pushing digital, TV and mail ads slamming Miller-Meeks, who’s a physician, for rising health care costs. Watch the 30-second spot 3. PRIMARY COLORS: Democrats’ clash between progressives and moderates will also emerge in tomorrow’s Minnesota Senate primary between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig. There, they have to navigate the state’s welfare fraud scandal, which Craig has used as a cudgel against Flanagan, WSJ’s John McCormick reports. The step back: The insurgent left has notched big victories this year through superior ground games and organizing, combined with clear and bold outsider messaging, NYT’s Kellen Browning and colleagues report. 4. WHAT JAMES TALARICO IS READING: “One Source of Paxton’s Wealth: A Cell Tower at a Hospital He Knew Well,” by NYT’s Lauren McGaughy: Premier Vertical Properties is “a cellular tower company from which [Texas AG Ken] Paxton made between $100,000 and $1 million about every 18 months. The company controls at least one tower in a city north of Dallas that was erected around 20 years ago on the property of a hospital where Mr. Paxton was a board member. … The terms of any agreement that may have been struck between Mr. Paxton’s company and the hospital are not clear.” Paxton’s campaign responded that this is “a search for a story that does not exist,” as he’s disclosed the income for years.
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Catch up on On the Road with Jonathan Martin Season 2 is underway. Jonathan Martin sits down with key political players in the places that shaped them for conversations on power, strategy, 2028 and what comes next for American politics.
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5. CASH DASH: Defend the Vote Action Fund is putting another $5.4 million into ad campaigns pressuring Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) on the Iran war and highlighting Rep. Chris Pappas’ (D-N.H.) work against corruption and congressional stock trading. 6. ANNALS OF INFLUENCE: “A.I.-Driven Chip Crunch Leads to New Rush of Lobbying in Washington,” by NYT’s Kalley Huang and Ana Swanson: “[A] wide range of industries, including medical device makers, car manufacturers and consumer electronics companies like Apple, are asking for the government’s help to get the [memory] chips they need. The companies and their lobbyists have suggested a mix of solutions, some conventional and others highly interventionist, like federal policy that would push memory chip makers to allocate more chips to their industries.” On the Hill, a group of mostly progressive House Democrats is calling for top AI leaders to testify in the wake of their models’ recent cyber breaches, per CNBC’s Megan Cassella. 7. SCHOOL DAZE: CareerOneStop, a website that helps people find college scholarships along with job opportunities, is heading for an anti-diversity overhaul by the Trump administration, WaPo’s Todd Wallack reports. The White House said the site will go in-house at the Labor Department to “to eliminate the DEI policies,” as it currently has tools to allow students to search for scholarships targeted at women, people of color, disabled people and LGBTQ+ people. 8. SCOTUS WATCH: “He wanted to pray to a higher power. His fight went to the highest court,” by CNN’s John Fritze: “For a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court that almost always sides with religious interests, [Daniel] Grand’s little-noticed appeal is primed to expand the power of churches, synagogues and other religious entities to challenge zoning laws that restrict their access to residential neighborhoods.”
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A message from AHIP:  
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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IN MEMORIAM — “Ben Jones, ‘Dukes of Hazzard’ Actor and Congressman, Dies at 84,” by NYT’s Glenn Rifkin: “He played the mechanic Cooter Davenport on the hit television series before serving two terms as a Democratic congressman from Georgia.” LCD’S LANDING — Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who resigned as Labor secretary amid a series of misconduct allegations, is joining Think Big as a senior adviser in its newly launched senior advisory practice. She is also now a member of the board for Log Cabin Republicans, which advocates for LGBT conservatives and allies, she told POLITICO’s Sam Benson. “There’s going to be many more things on the horizon,” she said. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — A new congressional effort led by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) and Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) seeks to undo D.C.’s requirement that motorcycle drivers and passengers wear helmets, per WaPo’s Liam Scott. Van Orden sees it as the first salvo in an effort to roll back such laws elsewhere in the U.S. Safety experts warn the move would lead to more deaths on the vehicles, which already have a fatality rate about 28 times that of cars. SPORTS BLINK — The Patriot Games, taking place yesterday through tomorrow, are a Freedom 250 athletic competition for teens, with $250,000 in winnings on the line, WaPo’s Noah White reports from Geneva, Ohio. On the ground, there’s plenty of patriotism, excitement and MAGA caps. There are also some lingering questions: Competitors found out they were chosen only two weeks prior and some crew members wonder whether ESPN is broadcasting the games in response to the FCC’s ABC investigation. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Sara Matar is now an associate in the White House Counsel’s Office, The Capitol Forum’s Rebecca Kern scooped. She previously worked at the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division. ENGAGED — Michael Brady, Amazon Web Services regional policy leader for Indiana, Kentucky and Michigan, proposed to Katherine Hess, treasury management officer at PNC Bank in Indianapolis, on Friday at Sunset Rock on Mackinac Island, Michigan. Pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Justin Herman, federal civilian director at Cognition AI, and Maggie Dougherty, VP of advocacy at the Eleanor Crook Foundation, got married Saturday at the Cathedral Basilica of Saint Louis, with a reception in the Grand Hall at Union Station that included a five-tier pink champagne cake. She’s taking his last name. The couple met on Bumble while he was midway through a round-the-world trip, and their first date was a yacht rock party for two on an electric boat on the Potomac. He proposed a year later in Bora Bora. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Liz Banicki, James Barbour, Emily Bouck West, Molly Carpenter, Katie and Joe Chaudoin, Carrie Filipetti, Zach and Rebecca Graves, Nikki and Michael Haley, Skiffington and Colbie Holderness, Kelsey Kelleher, Mike Lake, Ian Mair and Sasha Moss, Bethany Morrison, Tom Suder, Ashley Szofer, Michael David Thomas, and Josh and Katie Woodward. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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