ELECTION DAY: A slate of primaries will come to a head across the Midwest tonight, and one will illuminate a path for Democrats — including those looking toward 2028 — through the politics of immigration. The blistering Senate Democratic primary in Minnesota between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig will be an emphatic referendum on whether the party base is effectively standing up to President Donald Trump’s ICE enforcement operations. It’s become the defining issue of their primary matchup, fanned by the toll of Trump’s Operation Metro Surge in the state — and enflamed by the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. But the immigration recriminations date back to well before Metro Surge consumed the state with anti-ICE fervor. Flanagan’s attacks on Craig have centered on a single vote Craig cast, which she since walked back in an op-ed, in the early days of the second Trump administration: joining Republicans to pass the Laken Riley Act. “This is the point of contrast,” Flanagan recently told Playbook. “My opponent, Congresswoman Craig, voted three days into the second Trump administration for the Laken Riley Act, which I think is what gave Trump the green light for Operation Midway Blitz, for Operation Metro Surge.” Craig wasn’t alone among Democrats supporting the bill, which requires DHS to detain non-citizens arrested for burglary, theft and other charges. Numerous Dem moderates staring down tough races this cycle also backed the law, including Reps. Henry Cuellar (Texas), Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.). Some vulnerable lawmakers including Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), like Craig, regret that vote. A crop of potential 2028 prospects may be watching the Minnesota results for clues about where the Democratic base stands on the Laken Riley referendum. That includes Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who’s positioned himself as an arbiter of immigration messaging. There’s Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who hasn’t shut down the rumors she’s weighing a presidential bid. Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) are also in the mix. All voted for the Laken Riley Act. Progressives are trying to turn the vote into a litmus test for 2028. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), another potential presidential candidate, wrote on X months ago the Laken Riley vote “is a disqualifying vote to lead our party” — a sentiment that could be revived on a 2028 debate stage. But tonight will be the real test of the issue’s potency among the base, and whether Flanagan and other progressives successfully tied Laken Riley Act support to the fallout from Trump’s immigration crackdown. “I think it is certainly something that we are hearing on the campaign trail, and has been a rallying cry,” Flanagan told Playbook. The race is expected to be a nail-biter. Flanagan is backed by retiring Sen. Tina Smith and has strong support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The brunt of Flanagan’s ads — backed by millions from the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association she previously chaired — slammed Craig for the vote. But Craig commanded a whopping $9.6 million in ad spending in her favor, per the ad tracking firm AdImpact, compared to Flanagan’s roughly $1.9 million. That produced another point of tension in the race, with dark money fueling a flurry of ads defending Craig, per the Minnesota Star Tribune. Craig told POLITICO in a statement she’s the only one who’s “taken on Trump and former DHS Secretary [Kristi] Noem,” whom she pushed to impeach. Craig received backing from many of the party’s moderates, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and most recently New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Her campaign highlighted Craig’s ICE opposition, including voting down DHS funding, and hit Flanagan over donations from ICE contractors to the DLGA under her tenure. The race has also featured a barrage of criticism over how Minnesota has handled fraud investigations, and the outside spending has cropped up as a flashpoint. But immigration is the issue on which the party will glean its biggest lessons here. Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at abianco@politico.com and eokun@politico.com.
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