THE ART OF THE DEAL: After a weekend of stops and starts, the signals from U.S.-Iran peace talks turned more positive today, with both sides hailing progress across multiple fronts. Most notably at the negotiations in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, VP JD Vance announced that Iran had agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the country to look at nuclear sites. That would end a year of Iran blocking the inspectors from military nuclear enrichment locations. Vance, who’s taken a political risk in becoming one of the administration’s faces of the provisional peace deal, touted this as “the first step in permanently denuclearizing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran,” per POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels. This is still just the start of a long and perilous process to hammer out the stickiest nuclear issues in negotiations, which could be derailed at any moment by an uptick in Israel-Hezbollah fighting or a Trump Truth Social post. But Vance chalked up the weekend tensions to “a little bit of threatening” and “a little bit of whining” that hadn’t stopped their forward momentum. Negotiators and mediators have kept the wheels moving so far today. And Trump’s latest post this afternoon struck a steadier tone: “Everybody is fully aware that Iran will agree to have Major Weapons Inspections in order to ensure ‘Nuclear Honesty’ long into the future,” he wrote. Back in Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took the next step of issuing a two-month sanctions waiver for Iranian oil sales, as had been laid out in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. The move will help bolster Iran’s economy, reconnecting it to the world and allowing payments with U.S. dollars. It indicates that the U.S. sees Tehran as largely complying with the deal so far, though all eyes remain on whether shipping really starts to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz again. Longtime Iran watchers know that the IAEA and sanctions news both constitute an approximate return to the shape of the Barack Obama Iran deal that Trump ended in his first term. As CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski and Jennifer Hansler report, Trump, Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for years all opposed Iranian sanctions relief. But the administration argues that this deal is stronger and Tehran is now weaker. The State Department said Rubio will depart tomorrow for a trip through the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, where he’ll discuss the agreement with Middle Eastern allies who’ve expressed some discomfort with parts of the text, per Reuters. Though Rubio has publicly taken more of a back seat to other officials on the negotiations, this is an opportunity for him to sell the Gulf on why not to worry about money going to Iran for a postwar reconstruction fund. Just as crucial as the talks in Switzerland was the relative calm in Lebanon, where a delicate ceasefire has seemed to hold steady today, per NYT’s David Halbfinger and Natan Odenheimer. That follows the U.S. and Iran announcing a new “deconfliction cell” around Lebanon, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the “1st real test” of the deal. And the more optimistic outlook for talks today also pushed oil prices lower, dropping below $75 a barrel for the first time in more than three months — the most immediate cost-of-living ramification for U.S. consumers and politics. Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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