The Latinos that could unlock the majority

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Aug 02, 2026 View in browser   By Ali Bianco with Alec Hernandez Presented by  With help from Eli Okun and Irie Sentner Good Sunday morning. This is Ali Bianco, joined by POLITICO’s Alec Hernández for your Sunday read on the group of Latinos who could prove decisive come November (and no, they’re not in south Texas). Hit me and Alec with your thoughts. DRIVING THE DAY Democratic Latino strategists are trying to clue their party in on an overlooked voter that could unlock a Democratic majority — and it cuts through the cycle’s biggest races: Pay attention to Puerto Ricans. Some of the party’s most prominent Latino voices descended on Texas this week for Latino civil rights group UnidosUS’ conference to game-plan around a defining issue for the party: how to win back Latinos. They have eagle-eyes on the Rio Grande Valley, and whether they might be able to reconquer their elusive white whale with the state’s increasingly conservative southern Tejanos. But it’s Puerto Rican voters who can be found across some of the biggest toss-up races for both the House and the Senate. “You’re talking about a set of Puerto Rican voters that literally alone potentially flip which party controls Congress,” Rafael Collazo, UnidosUS Action Fund’s executive director, told Playbook as he arrived at the conference. Puerto Ricans living in the mainland U.S. have a long history of voting blue, helping send Democrats like Reps. Darren Soto in Central Florida or Nydia Velázquez in New York City to Congress. But many of them, especially young Puerto Rican men, joined the overwhelming rightward shift of Latinos toward Donald Trump and Republicans in 2024. Then in 2025, another shift: some Puerto Ricans who had backed Republicans switched their votes again, this time backing Democrat Mikie Sherrill for governor in New Jersey. Now in 2026, Democratic Latino strategists are focusing in on a slate of key races to keep the momentum. Northeastern Pennsylvania’s 222 corridor is home to hundreds of thousands of Latinos, with an overwhelming majority of them Puerto Ricans, and both the 7th and 8th districts rank among the party’s biggest flip targets. In central Florida, redistricting has split the heavily concentrated Puerto Rican community in Orlando and created a challenge for Soto in Florida’s 9th. And in New York, where both the state’s 4th and 17th districts will likely be decided on the margins, there are tens of thousands of Puerto Rican votes up for grabs. It’s not just in densely Hispanic areas where boricuas could make the difference. Iowa’s 1st District — another nail-biter — is home to around 2,000 Puerto Rican voters, per Frederick Vélez, a strategist working to turn out Puerto Ricans in the Midwest. That may seem negligible, but it’s a district the GOP won by 799 votes in 2024. Any of these seats could tip the balance of power in the House, multiple Latino strategists told Playbook — if the party can actually reach Puerto Rican voters. “I think that’s the story of Puerto Rican voters: they're taken for granted, [Democrats] invest in them at the last minute and then get blamed,” Vélez told Playbook. A message from Anthropic: Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team Running a restaurant means financial pressure and moving parts. At Shy Bird, owner Eli Feldman uses Claude to help solve problems from kitchen organization to manager coaching, so he can give more to the people who make the restaurant run. Learn more.   The DCCC told Playbook it “isn’t taking any community for granted and we've been connecting with Latino voters since day one,” spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez said. “We’re engaging voters early, calling out Republicans’ broken promises, and showing voters that Democrats are laser-focused on lowering costs and fighting for a better future.” But several Puerto Rican organizers are still warning that their communities feel like an afterthought. Strategists say the bloc was ignored for most of the 2024 cycle until too close to the election. Even things that could have moved them – like comedian Tony Hinchcliffe declaring the territory a “floating island of garbage” during a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden – happened too late for Democrats to fully mobilize around it. Republicans are betting they can capitalize on Puerto Rican voters feeling sidelined by Democratic political organizations. “From New York and Pennsylvania to Florida and beyond, Democrats keep counting voters they think they own. Republicans will keep showing up and earning every vote,” Christian Martinez, the NRCC’s national Hispanic press secretary, said in a statement. It’s also not just House districts. At least three major Senate battlegrounds — Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia — are home to over 100,000 people of Puerto Rican heritage, according to U.S. census data. That’s more than enough to help sway a statewide election – but can Democrats energize them enough to make them turn out in the numbers they’ll need? “The easiest answer is yes. They are making a more concerted effort” to speak directly to Latino voters overall, said North Carolina state Rep. Jordan Lopez, a Democrat from the diverse eastern stretches of Charlotte. His party, he added, is “pretty aggressive with how they've engaged with communities across the state” as they’re working to send former Gov. Roy Cooper to the Senate in November. And Puerto Ricans are concerned with more than regional needs. Candidates trying to win their votes will need to put out a message that resonates specifically with voters on the mainland who still have one eye on the needs of their families back on the island. Democrats need to make lasting investments among this bloc of voters now, ahead of 2028, the strategists all argue. “Too often Puerto Ricans are summoned and they're not heard — we need to build trust. It's not the jingle. It's not the last-minute celebrity,” said Erica González Martínez, director of the coalition Power 4 Puerto Rico. “That’s something that we're trying to call attention to because if we don't do it, then who?”   A message from Anthropic: Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team Running a restaurant comes with pressure. At Shy Bird, Claude helps Eli Feldman do more for his team. Learn more.   SUNDAY BEST … — HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., asked what the government should do to prepare for the next global pandemic, in a back-and-forth with CNN’s Dana Bash that Bash herself described as “contentious” on “State of the Union”: “Anthony Fauci was mismanaging the Covid pandemic and was doing it under the Biden administration. President Trump wanted to end the lockdowns … I mean, I think we did virtually everything wrong the last time … We need to protect our constitutional rights.” Bash replied, “You’re talking about rights, and I’m asking about a potential public health crisis that is coming.” Kennedy accused her and CNN of being “part of the problem” and of attacking him. “I’m not attacking you. …You’re talking about therapeutics — fine. It is also factually true that the Covid vaccine worked,” Bash replied. “The Covid vaccine prevented deaths. There is data upon data upon data.” Kennedy hit back: “You are saying nonsense.” More from POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels — Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) on U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro dropping the vandalism case concerning the Reflecting Pool, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “You can't lie to a federal judge. If she can't prove her case, she was right to pull back. Because if you fool around with a federal judge, you will find out. … And so I don't know why she filed the suit without doing a full investigation.” On the DOJ’s “Anti Weaponization Fund,” and whether rioters who attacked law enforcement on Jan. 6, 2021 should be eligible: “No, I'd take them off the table.” — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on the Maine Senate race, and specifically whether he regrets his endorsement of former candidate Graham Platner, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. Platner ran a very strong campaign, and in fact many of the issues that he's raised are resonating all over this country. A woman made very serious allegations against him. He withdrew from the race, period.” On if he’ll endorse Troy Jackson: “If he asks me to, I certainly will.”   A message from Anthropic: How a Boston restaurant owner uses Claude to help support his team   8 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. WAR REPORT: Trump announced late last night that he was canceling the planned strikes on Iran pending an agreement to end the conflict and that the deal could include the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, POLITICO’s Elena Giordano reports. Israel also held off on its strikes as part of that deal. Iran has not publicly responded or confirmed that any deal has been reached. But Trump’s post came after a call from Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who expressed concerns over reports of the incoming strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and urged Trump to de-escalate, Axios’ Barak Ravid and Mark Caputo scoop. State of play: The White House has few good options, as Iran’s demand to control the strait continues to be untenable and a short-term solution is still unclear, POLITICO’S Megan Messerly and colleagues write. “The most important thing from a negotiation standpoint is [the Iranians] certainly feel that they have leverage and they feel emboldened, and it’s leading them to refuse to make concessions that are probably in their short-term interest,” said Alex Gray, former National Security Council chief of staff during Trump’s first term. 2. FOR YOUR RADAR: “Ohio Rep. Max Miller to stay in race ahead of ballot deadline,” by POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy: “Rep. Max Miller attempted to clear his name Sunday from allegations of domestic and child abuse from his ex-wife by laying out a timeline and arguing all of the allegations have been investigated. … Miller has denied the allegations and has sued [Emily Moreno] and her lawyer for defamation. Moreno’s lawyer also filed a restraining order against Miller this week. … Miller once again argued that his ex-wife has ‘medically diagnosed’ mental health challenges and that each of the allegations comes from her. … A spokesperson for Moreno did not immediately respond to a request for comment.” 3. THIS WEEK IN THE MI(DSA)WEST: There’s traditional Democrats and some Trump voters in Michigan seriously considering backing Abdul El-Sayed in Tuesday’s culmination of the most-watched Democratic primary for Senate this cycle — and it’s these voters that could set the Democratic party on an irrevocably different path, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports from Michigan. “And the only reasonable thing seems to be: Burn it down and start over, and make it different,” one organizer told NOTUS. Over in Wisconsin, Gov. Tony Evers came off the sidelines to try to play kingmaker in the gubernatorial Democratic primary, and it’s not working, POLITICO’s Tyler Katzenberger and Meredith Lee Hill write, with his endorsement only further entrenching the chaotic ideological battle similarly playing out in that primary. 2026 watch: Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) made her first stump speech yesterday as one of nine Republicans vying to replace her brother, the late Lindsey Graham, with just over a week until the special primary election, AP’s Meg Kinnard reports. … In the contest for Maine’s Senate seat, Troy Jackson’s hometown is giving mixed reviews on his candidacy, WaPo’s Alexei Koseff writes from Allagash. … As the DNC wades through its increasingly-public money woes, the party’s highest-profile donors have so far been missing in action, WSJ’s Maggie Severns and colleagues report. 4. KANSAS’ OTHER SLEEPER ISSUE: The battle over data centers has become the dividing line in the gubernatorial primary race to run Kansas, POLITICO’s Liz Crampton reports. Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher and GOP state Sen. Ty Masterson, the top contenders for their respective parties, are being slammed for previous votes expanding data center construction — prompting attack ads and dark money shaping the contest. On the flip side, data center companies know they have a problem of populist backlash, with a recent POLITICO poll finding roughly 60 percent of people surveyed saying the centers come at the local community’s or country’s expense or provide no benefit, per POLITICO’s Aaron Mak and Jessie Blaeser. A message from Anthropic: Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team Running a restaurant means financial pressure and moving parts. At Shy Bird, owner Eli Feldman uses Claude to help solve problems from kitchen organization to manager coaching, so he can give more to the people who make the restaurant run. Learn more.   5. 2028 WATCH: “Elissa Slotkin’s Midwestern Path to Winning the Midterms — and the White House,” by Playbook’s Adam Wren: “[Sen. Elissa Slotkin] has been on something of a Midwestern safari, visiting out-of-the-way locales and mining their voters for insights. … Beneath the surface, Slotkin is at work on a more serious project as her colleague Sen. Gary Peters rides his Harley off into the sunset. … She is about to take a star turn in the midterms, serving as perhaps the last neutral, major figure who could unite Michigan Democrats behind either the progressive former public health official [El-Sayed] or moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s epochal primary.” … … “Sitting behind her family’s farmhouse last month off a dirt road in Holly — population 5,906 — she all but admitted it: As she crisscrosses the Midwest, joking about tailgates and Tractor Supply, she is workshopping material for a presidential campaign.” 6. SENATE WOES: While Speaker Mike Johnson seems to have a constant line to the president, Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he and Trump talk more on an “as-needed” basis, often not for weeks at a time, CNN’s Manu Raju and Sarah Ferris report. But the two seem increasingly on opposing sides, and it’s casting a cloud over an already tense season for the GOP ahead of the midterms: “I would say we’re all longing for a relationship with the White House where we work more in harmony,” Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) told CNN. 7. BRAVE NEW WORLD: “Anger Over Data Centers Is Fueling a New Political Movement,” by POLITICO’s Ariel Wittenberg for the Magazine: “There is now something of what could be called a ‘New Luddite’ movement sweeping Congress and campaign trails across the country, with mostly Democratic pols staking their seats on an anti-data center message. [Tennessee State Rep. Justin Pearson] is one of the crusade’s faces. His is not the most prominent voice calling for a moratorium on data center construction … Nor is his campaign’s success guaranteed in his Aug. 6 primary or the subsequent Nov. 3 general election … But Pearson says he’s not afraid of a fight, particularly when it comes to battling corporate interests that he says have harmed his community.” 8. CARTE BLANCHE: Trump threatened yesterday to preserve the proposal for the DOJ’s “Anti Weaponization Fund” as part of his controversial IRS settlement, saying he’ll push to codify it in legislation and his AG pick, Todd Blanche, in acting status to remove oppositional GOP senators’ leverage, POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy and Ben Johansen report. The DOJ has repeatedly declared the fund all but dead, but holdout GOP senators have been looking to get that in writing. And they’re doubling down — Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) posted that Blanche won’t be confirmed due to Trump’s comments. Senate Judiciary is tentatively set to vote on his nomination Tuesday. In other personnel news: Jay Clayton will begin the transition into his new role as DNI tomorrow, per acting Director Bill Pulte — who stirred his own wave of controversy when he was nominated, per Reuters. TALK OF THE TOWN POOL REPORT — “Trump dings longtime ally Jeanine Pirro for dropping Reflecting Pool vandalism case,” by Ben and Greg: “President Donald Trump publicly broke with one of his closest political allies Saturday, criticizing U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro over her office’s decision to drop a high-profile vandalism case involving the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. … The public rebuke was a rare display of disagreement between Trump and Pirro, a longtime ally and former Fox News host whom he installed as the top federal prosecutor in Washington last year.” PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “After big win, left-leaning slate seeks to flex power in D.C.’s Democratic Party,” by WaPo’s Rachel Kurzius: “While Janeese Lewis George’s victory in the Democratic primary for mayor dominated headlines, less visible but still significant results could be found at the bottom of the June ballot … [Sam Bonar] is part of a group of left-leaning candidates calling themselves the Free DC Slate, which ousted more moderate members of the local party’s leadership. They won 36 of 48 total seats up for grabs.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: VP JD Vance … Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) … Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah) … D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser … BAL’s Betsy Lawrence … Matthew Rosenberg … Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights … Gigi Sohn … Fox News’ Rich Edson … Kevin Walling … NewsNation’s Kellie Meyer … … POLITICO’s Benton Ives … Peter Mihalick … CBS’ Caitlin Huey-Burns … Emily Gershon … Sarah Bittleman … Camille Gallo … Jeff Ballou … Michael Manganiello … Jack Jacobs … Brynn Barnett … former Reps. Nancy Boyda (D-Kan.) and Dan Boren (D-Okla.) … Laura Nasim … former Treasury Secretary John Snow … Brian Montgomery … Stephen Cox … The New Yorker’s Lawrence Wright … Dennis Prager … Nick Ballas … Whit Blount of Rep. María Elvira Salazar’s (R-Fla.) office … NBC’s Dylan Dreyer … Kolby Lee … Steve Tebbe … Geneva Fuentes  Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. 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