Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: The next geopolitical crisis

The next geopolitical crisis

Jun 22, 2026

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner

Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, keeping half an eye on the unfolding political drama in the U.K. —- where PM Keir Starmer just announced plans to resign, with the contest to replace him set to be settled by September, if not sooner. (Read my profile here of Andy Burnham, the man primed to take over as PM in the coming weeks.)

In today’s Playbook …

— Three reasons why NATO chiefs believe they can charm Donald Trump this week.

— The Senate is poised for a major bipartisan win, with only a week to advance others.

— The Boldfaces: Mark Rutte, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Bill Pulte, Zohran Mamdani, Graham Platner, Susan Collins, Josh Turek, Ashley Hinson, Gavin Newsom and more.

DRIVING THE DAY

STUCK IN A RUTTE: The first round of high-level peace talks between the U.S. and Iran finally wrapped. Next up on the geopolitical crisis track: NATO chief Mark Rutte flies into D.C. tomorrow ahead of crunch talks with Donald Trump on Wednesday, two weeks out from a make-or-break NATO summit in Turkey.

It’s safe to say Rutte has his work cut out. Never has the build-up to a NATO summit been so chaotic, with the president repeatedly threatening to pull out of the alliance following the Iran war. The Truth Social posts have been brutal, with the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain all individually targeted. U.S. troop deployments to Germany and Poland were canceled without warning. Trump uses the phrase “paper tiger” whenever NATO is mentioned.

And it’s not just venting: Secretary of State Marco Rubio — generally seen in Europe as the grown-up around the Cabinet table — has been equally forthright. “I know why NATO is good for Europe, but why is NATO good for America?” he asked rhetorically last month. Rubio said he was “very upset” by NATO allies’ refusal to let U.S. aircraft use their bases for bombing raids, and bluntly questioned why America remains in the alliance at all.

Last time Rutte visited D.C. in April, it didn't go well.

Making his Mark: “For Rutte, this meeting will be yet another major test of his ability to keep NATO together — and his last chance to make the case for the alliance’s worth ahead of next month’s summit," POLITICO’s NATO reporter in Brussels, Victor Jack, writes in. “Trump’s fury over allies’ response to the Iran war is still fresh, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week warned Washington would reevaluate its troop presence — and NATO funding commitments — for European countries not acting as model allies. Rutte will have a lot on his plate to overcome those splits.”

Hegseth’s speech to NATO defense chiefs in Brussels last Thursday showed that four months on, the transatlantic divisions remain raw. Hegseth accused his NATO counterparts of “shameful” behavior which “put America’s sons and daughters — our sons and daughters — at risk.” Hegseth also warned he would be keeping a “close eye” on NATO allies failing to deliver on their spending commitments … and as my POLITICO colleagues set out, there are plenty of offenders to choose from.

There are also at least three reasons for Europeans to be cheerful ahead of the summit in Ankara on July 7-8.

1. Trump confirmed Friday he’ll definitely attend, on board his new Qatari-gifted Air Force One jet. (Some European officials feared he might pull out.)

2. There’s no one better placed than Rutte to mount a charm offensive. He’s famously nicknamed “The Trump Whisperer” in Europe, largely because he’s shown a capacity to prostrate himself before the president far beyond that of any elected European leader. (The fact Rutte has no angry voters to answer to probably explains why.) His “Daddy” nickname for Trump, not to mention his fawning text messages to the president, have turned plenty of stomachs in Europe — but are also key reasons why Trump holds him in high regard. There has been no dramatic falling-out with Rutte, as there was with Keir Starmer, Giorgia Meloni, Friedrich Merz and others.

3. Notwithstanding the above, last week’s G7 summit in France went pretty well, at least by the standards of previous world summits attended by Trump. (Who could forget this one? Or this one? Or this picture?) “Europeans at the G7 were generally pleased with the absence of any drama in France — and even more pleased with Trump toughening his language on Russia in a joint declaration,” POLITICO’s senior foreign and defense correspondent Esther Webber texts in from London. “The hope is it lays the groundwork for an extremely low-key NATO summit after Rutte managed to rally partners round the [latest NATO spending] target and pacify ‘Daddy’ last year.”

A message from bp:

bp added $190+ billion to the US economy over the past three years. In the Gulf, we’re unlocking new reserves to boost US offshore production. Innovation is helping us bring more American energy to customers more efficiently. See how else bp is investing in America.

Ukraine on the brain: The shift from Trump on Ukraine at the G7 was such that European leaders are actually starting to feel optimistic again. “Diplomats and U.S. officials tell me Trump and his team have warmed to the idea that Ukraine is doing better on the battlefield and are looking at Kyiv more positively,” POLITICO’s diplomatic correspondent Felicia Schwartz tells Playbook. “Rutte must now harness his world-famous ability to charm Trump to deliver badly-needed air defense and long-range strike capabilities. Ukraine is in a favorable place, but that will depend on Trump not losing interest or seeking to strike a quick deal.”

Rutte will also plead for a little more notice from Washington regarding any further steps to reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe. “Washington’s allies understand the U.S. wants to rethink its military footprint in Europe,” Felicia says, “but want the Trump administration to coordinate such actions — rather than continue its pattern of piecemeal declarations and surprise announcements.”

Phase 2: After spending Wednesday locked in talks with Trump, Rutte will spend Thursday seeking to win hearts and minds on the Hill. (And with good reason: Congress would need to approve any future financial support for Ukraine, and also has the power to block any attempt to end or significantly water-down U.S. commitment to NATO.) After meeting congressional leaders, Rutte will join an event at the Atlantic Council; and at least one broadcast interview is expected.

But on the whole, Rutte is speaking to an audience of one. “Rutte needs to come to Trump with a compelling case that NATO allies are meeting their spending commitments and that they did not leave him in the lurch during the Iran war,” Felicia says. “I expect he will come to Trump with a presentation of all of the ways that NATO countries will help secure the Strait of Hormuz … so long as the fighting with Iran doesn’t break out again.”

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Sophia Cai discuss the stakes of Rutte’s trip to Washington — plus the latest on Iran and the White House’s AI saga.

A message from bp:

bp supports ~300,000 US jobs. Like the teams producing oil & gas offshore today and the ones discovering new resources for tomorrow. We’re growing in the Gulf to help boost American energy security and supply. See all the ways bp is driving American energy forward.

THE DOWNLOAD

THE AFFORDABILITY AGENDA: The Senate may pass a significant bipartisan housing package today, with a vote on the schedule at 5:30 p.m. ahead of a House vote later this week. The bill aims to bolster housing supply, easing a national crunch and bringing down prices. It’s a rare burst of across-the-aisle legislating that’s broken through a number of stalemates in an effort to address Americans’ No. 1 issue: the cost of living.

Then it’s back to headaches: The Senate has just a week in Washington to resolve the standoff over FISA and the ODNI before the chamber’s next recess. For now, Bill Pulte remains in charge and Section 702 remains unauthorized. And Jay Clayton is stuck in limbo.

RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: Mirage or reality? When the House returns tomorrow, we’ll start to find out whether a third GOP reconciliation bill can actually come together, POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Meredith Lee Hill report for Inside Congress. A top-level meeting is likely on the books for midweek, but deadlines are tight, the list of other priorities is long and fiscal hawks sound skeptical.

PRIMARY COLORS: It’s the final full day of campaigning before primary voters take to the polls across Maryland, New York and Utah, along with runoffs in South Carolina. Across the Empire State, anti-establishment fervor threatens incumbent and experienced politicians in both parties, POLITICO’s Nick Reisman and Madison Fernandez preview. In NYC, Mayor Zohran Mamdani has made an unusually assertive series of risky bets on left-wing challengers, with significant implications for his political power, NYT’s Nick Fandos and Sally Goldenberg write.

Just as in New York, heavy super PAC spending by pro-Israel and pro-cryptocurrency lobbies has emerged as a congressional campaign issue in Maryland, where state Del. Adrian Boafo has been the beneficiary of their spending, WaPo’s Erin Cox reports.

J.B. Pritzker talks Democrats’ road ahead

On On the Road, Jonathan Martin sits down with Gov. J.B. Pritzker at Manny’s Deli for a candid conversation on 2028 speculation, party strategy and the future of Democratic politics.
Watch now.

THE FRONT PAGE

ENDORSEMENT WATCH: Planned Parenthood’s political arm is endorsing Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner in his attempt to knock off Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), POLITICO’s Jessica Piper scoops. Planned Parenthood Action Fund President Alexis McGill Johnson will appear alongside Platner at an event in Portland this afternoon. The group previously backed Platner’s Democratic primary opponent, Gov. Janet Mills, just weeks before Mills suspended her campaign.

The endorsement comes as Democrats seized on recent comments from Collins that she doesn’t regret her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, one of the justices responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. Planned Parenthood backing Platner is far from an end-all — the group also endorsed Collins’ 2020 opponent, Sara Gideon — but Maine Democrats argue Collins is more vulnerable on reproductive rights issues since the end of Roe.

From 30,000 feet: Though abortion is on the back burner in many congressional races, Democrats hope ballot measures in four states will make the issue top of mind and put vulnerable Republicans in an awkward spot, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein reports. They’re particularly focused on Virginia and Nevada.

POLL POSITION: Iowa Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek has a narrow lead over GOP rival Ashley Hinson of 47 percent to 45 percent in a new internal poll conducted by Global Strategy Group of likely general-election voters, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. Some Republicans have acknowledged a concern about Iowa. “There are some issues there that we got to deal with — the biggest one is trade — trade and tariffs,” said a Republican close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the obstacles. See the polling memo

BET ON IT: The rise of prediction markets is so fresh that many people don’t have clear views on it yet, POLITICO’s Declan Harty reports from the latest POLITICO Poll results. Twenty-nine percent of Americans view it as a negative trend and 19 percent say positive, but a majority say it’s neither or don’t know. Fifty-three percent of Americans think sports betting should be legal. But there’s much higher opposition to bets on politics and news: Sixty-four percent think bets on terrorism should be illegal, 57 percent for war and a 44 percent plurality for elections.

A message from bp:

5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. THE ART OF THE DEAL: Qatar and Pakistan said the U.S. and Iran made significant progress during negotiations in Switzerland — after yet another near-derailment. While VP JD Vance was at the talks, Trump went online to step up fresh threats of restarting the war against Iran if Hezbollah didn’t stop firing at Israel. As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump warned Tehran on Fox News, “close it and you won’t have a country.” Iran’s top negotiator shot back, “Our armed forces are prepared to respond.” Despite all the fractures, the day ended with mediators touting new agreements on lines of communication. The next talks this week will be at a more junior level. More from Axios

The fallout: Oil prices ticked back up on the fresh tensions, and the latest CBS polling shows Americans broadly supportive of ending the war — but also in agreement that the U.S. hasn’t achieved its aims in the conflict.

2. DREAM DEFERRED: Is the Trump administration chipping away at the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program? Advocates and lawmakers are increasingly worried that USCIS is slow-rolling approvals to extend Dreamers’ legal protections and work permits, POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil reports. The administration says more thorough vetting is a good thing.

3. MUCK READ: Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn began investigating Trump’s commutation of fraudster David Gentile’s sentence before political appointees in the administration killed the probe, NYT’s Ken Vogel and colleagues scooped. At issue was whether Gentile paid millions to advocate for his clemency, including to Rev. Frank Mann, who denies involvement. Once reporters started asking about the probe, Aakash Singh raised concerns and the call came down to drop it.

4. KNOWING DAN MORAFF: “The ‘Mad Scientist’ Behind Graham Platner’s Scandal-Plagued Rise,” by WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Aaron Zitner: “A thorough background check of a Senate candidate, which has become standard practice in key races, can take several weeks and cost roughly $20,000 or a monthly retainer. Moraff asked for an expedited, cheaper review to be done within days … It is the latest example of the mix of ambition, bravado and corner-cutting that Moraff has shown in a political career that has had a measure of success in elevating populist, Bernie Sanders-style candidates but also a trail of missteps that has left some political partners feeling betrayed.”

5. 2028 WATCH: Not many Democrats want anything to do with Joe Biden since 2024, but California Gov. Gavin Newsom has emerged as a lonely defender, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports. That could set him apart from the pack in a 2028 presidential primary, particularly with Black and Latino voters who still give Biden higher marks — though it comes with plenty of obvious risks too. Biden world is higher on Newsom than other potential contenders, including Kamala Harris, per Axios.

POLITICO Pro

Navigate policy challenges with confidence. POLITICO Pro gives professionals authoritative reporting, expert analysis and powerful tools to understand the business of government — in Washington and beyond. Learn more about POLITICO Pro.

TALK OF THE TOWN

REFLECTED GLORY — Trump said repairs to the newly refurbished, quickly struggling Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool will start “immediately.” He also blamed vandals — “SICK, DERANGED PEOPLE,” to be precise — for the problems, and several people have been arrested or cited on such charges. But it’s unclear whether there’s evidence there for such accusations. One of the people charged, former Olympian David Hearn, told the Daily Mail’s Eliot Force that the Trump administration is lying: He claims he simply reached down to touch a “loose flap of coating” because he was “curious as a concerned citizen” — and got booked.

Meanwhile, the Washington Examiner’s Rob Crilly found a dead duckling at the pool.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Jacqui Heinrich, senior White House correspondent for Fox News, got married Saturday at Saint Patrick's Cathedral in NYC, with a reception on the Horizon’s Edge Yacht. Cardinal Timothy Dolan officiated. Guests included Kevin McCarthy and Joe Manchin. More from People’s Hannah Sacks

— Barry Pump, senior adviser and parliamentarian for the House Homeland Security Dems, and Shreyans Goenka, an assistant professor of marketing at Virginia Tech’s Pamplin School of Business, got married last week on the Capitol steps, where Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) officiated. They had a reception Saturday on the rooftop of the Riggs hotel. The couple met on Hinge in 2024. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Hope Goins, Adam Comis, Brittany Carr, Alex Marston, Lauren McClain, Sheresh Khan, Sindhu Vee, Jakob Horder, Raj Jain, Anant and Radha Goenka, Jason Smith, Tom Wickham, Marcus Childress, Candyce Phoenix, Rosaline Cohen Benno, Sandeep Prasanna, Robby and Stefanie Wehagen, Bradley Bottoms, Jodi Schneider, Casey Hoag, Maria Oparil and Damien Jackson.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) … POLITICO’s Liam Dillon … Sam Cornale … AP’s Jill Colvin … Carson Daly … Michael Falcone … Pia Carusone … ICANN’s Carlos Reyes … Nate Sizemore … Alisha Sud … Lauren Weiner of the ACLU … Brit Hume … Herald Group’s Steven Smith … Brian Doherty … Adam Sabes … McLean Piner of Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-N.C.) office … Brian Rell

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.

A message from bp:

bp supports ~300,000 US jobs. America is home to our largest workforce in the world. From the people who help you fill up to the people producing energy across the country, we’re working to boost US energy supply and security. See how else bp is investing in America.