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By Eli Okun |
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THE CATCH-UP |
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Even as today’s inflation report showed price pain getting worse, President Donald Trump doubled down on threatening Tehran with more strikes imminently. | Demaree Nikhinson/AP |
INFLATION NATION: The daily barrage of headlines about Graham Platner, Ken Paxton, the “Anti-Weaponization Fund” or reconciliation can sometimes obscure the midterms’ fundamentals. But this remains the core dynamic, and the core trouble for Republicans: Donald Trump is an unpopular president in a typically difficult cycle for the party in power, having launched an unpopular war against Iran that’s driven up inflation — the predominant issue that’s toppled incumbent governments of all ideological stripes worldwide for the past several years (including Democrats in 2024). Trump remains relatively unbothered, committed to pursuing what he says is the more important goal of denying Iran a nuclear weapon. Even as today’s inflation report showed price pain getting worse, the president doubled down on threatening Tehran with more strikes imminently. And he delivered another line sure to feature in Democratic attack ads this fall: “I love the inflation,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office today. “You know why? Because as soon as this war is over … it’s going to come down like a rock.” Today’s Consumer Price Index report showed inflation speeding up to 4.2 percent annually in May, its highest level in more than three years and nearly 2 points higher than before the Middle East conflict began. With the Strait of Hormuz shuttered, energy costs drove the increase, along with related areas like food and airfares. Core inflation, omitting food and fuel, nudged up to 2.9 percent year over year. More from POLITICO’s Sam Sutton The CPI data will have quick bearing on next week’s Fed meeting, where the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady. (That the core metric is not as bad may give policymakers breathing room to avoid a hike.) It also reflects the growing squeeze many Americans are feeling: Inflation is now outstripping wage growth, which was 3.4 percent last month. So despite strengths in other parts of the economy, including the labor market, many middle- and working-class households will find it harder to afford basic goods. The question now is whether energy price shocks will start to ebb through the summer if hostilities remain limited. Trump said he thought “the numbers were great.” And the White House touted some price drops that arrived last month despite the war’s “temporary disruptions,” including dairy, used cars and auto insurance. Trump also returned to saber-rattling against Iran: “We’re going to hit them hard again today,” he said, as the conflict continues to waver between fragile ceasefire, periodic violence and stalemated talks. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres today described the status quo as not a ceasefire so much as a “lesser-fire.” Even though Trump threatened more strikes and expressed frustration with Iran’s negotiations, he also held out hope for reaching a peace deal. This week marked “a risky new phase of conflict,” WSJ’s Jared Malsin and Dov Lieber report, “in which both sides are attempting to maintain pressure and respond to provocations without returning to all-out war, but with an ever-present danger of stumbling across each other’s red lines and triggering a dangerous escalation.” “They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!” Trump posted earlier on Truth Social, in the wake of more Iranian attacks overnight in the region. Oil prices rose again. Stock markets fell. Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. SPY GAMES: Trump posted on Truth Social that he wants Congress to pass a short-term extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, ahead of its expiration at week’s end. He said he was working on selecting a permanent nominee for DNI, after meeting with House GOP leaders at the White House this morning, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Jordain Carney report. But Democrats have indicated they’ll need more than that — and likely a specific name — so long as Bill Pulte is set to assume the role on an acting basis. 2. ABOUT LAST NIGHT: The GOP House primary in Nevada’s 2nd District was called this morning for retired Lt. Col. David Flippo, per POLITICO’s Samuel Benson. Bolstered by a Trump endorsement, Flippo rode an outsider MAGA message to victory over former state Sen. James Settelmeyer, who was supported by much of the state Republican establishment. 3. BET ON IT: The CFTC laid out proposed rules for regulating prediction markets, trying to rein in easily manipulated bets while taking a relatively light touch to allow the markets’ growth, especially in sports, WSJ’s Dylan Tokar reports. Though the approach is more permissive than prediction market critics would like — and than an attempted crackdown by many states — the federal rules would wipe out almost all betting on war, assassinations and terrorism. 4. TOP TALKER: NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan are out with the first big excerpt from their book, “Regime Change” ($34), and it’s already setting off the president. They detail how a freakout over the Jeffrey Epstein files took over the White House last year to an extent much deeper than previously known, including multiple Situation Room meetings to worry over the backlash from Trump’s base. The White House responded that Trump was completely innocent of any misconduct related to Epstein and that he’d championed transparency for Epstein’s victims. Among the other takeaways: Trump privately didn’t want any of the Epstein files material released, and he personally tried to kill the infamous WSJ birthday card story. VP JD Vance went the other direction, advocating for making everything public, even unverified claims about Trump. The very online Vance was especially concerned about political blowback over a lack of transparency and suggested that they could have Tucker Carlson interview Ghislaine Maxwell. Chief of staff Susie Wiles described Vance to others as a conspiracy theorist. And Justice Department leadership devolved into bitter backbiting over the matter. More on the files: House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) said he wants acting AG Todd Blanche to testify about his handling of the documents next month, per POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs. Bill Gates went before the panel today and said he didn’t know about Epstein’s crimes when they interacted, per CNN. And new Reuters/Ipsos polling shows the public still isn’t satisfied: By a margin of 47 percent to 10 percent, Americans say the Trump administration hurt rather than helped accountability efforts. 5. ALSO ON THE HILL: ActBlue leader Regina Wallace-Jones said she would plead the Fifth in her congressional appearance today, writing in a WaPo op-ed that she refused to take part in what she described as an effort at weaponization and political persecution. “[T]his is not legitimate oversight,” she claimed. “It’s a coordinated campaign of political retribution.” 6. WHETHER PERMITTING: “Trump attacks on renewables ‘toxic’ to permitting talks,” by POLITICO’s Timothy Cama: “Top lawmakers working on permitting reform in Congress expressed optimism Wednesday about some form of legislation getting across the finish line this year, but a White House official was cool to key Democratic asks as part of the process. … Jarrod Agen, executive director of the White House National Energy Dominance Council, didn’t appear conciliatory toward Democrats on Wednesday. ‘We’re not going to give bad projects at the cost of good projects,’ Agen said at the [POLITICO Energy Summit].” 7. FOR YOUR RADAR: “New police videos reveal Rep. Max Miller’s ex-wife detailing allegations of abuse, which he denies,” by CNN’s Lauren Fox and colleagues: “In new police videos obtained by CNN, the ex-wife of Republican Ohio Rep. Max Miller emotionally describes abuse allegations against him, including an incident in which she says he held a gun to her. Miller, in separate police interviews, denies he ever abused her, calls his ex-wife ‘manipulative’ and alleges she struggles with mental illness.” 8. SCOTUS WATCH: “America’s Seniors to Face Healthcare ‘Calamity’ If Trump Expels Haitians,” by Bloomberg’s Nacha Cattan: “Thousands of Haitian immigrants who take care of ill and aging Americans could soon be forced to leave the US. Their departure, some nursing-home operators and Republican lawmakers fear, would unleash a healthcare disaster. The Supreme Court is expected to decide by the end of its current term whether the Trump administration can revoke the temporary protected status, known as TPS, of about 350,000 Haitian nationals.”
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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SPORTS BLINK — Somali World Cup referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan was deported from the U.S. ahead of tomorrow’s tournament kickoff, triggering anger in a community Trump described as “garbage” and already subject to a travel ban. Artan told NYT’s Tariq Panja he’d lost out on the “biggest dream of my life.” But the White House’s Andrew Giuliani said Artan had been expelled for alleged ties to terrorists. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Trump’s giant triumphal arch would be built on an unusually speedy timetable of two to three years, WaPo’s Dan Diamond reports from the latest federal planning documents. Rather than use stone like other D.C. monuments, the project would involve granite-robed concrete, and cranes would stretch hundreds of feet high. TO TELL THE TRUTH SOCIAL — “Trump Media, TAE No Longer Pursuing Truth Social Spinoff,” by Bloomberg’s Molly Schuetz: “Trump Media and TAE [Technologies], a California-based fusion-energy company, remain committed to finalizing their $6 billion merger announced late last year, the companies said.” OUT AND ABOUT — The Institute of International Education and the Alliance for International Exchange hosted a reception on the Hill last night celebrating the launch of the Congressional International Exchanges Caucus, which supports international educational and cultural exchange programs. The caucus is headed by Sens. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Reps. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) and Ami Bera (D-Calif.). Also SPOTTED: Cate Dillon, Shannon Sprenger, Victoria and Zach Roberts, Jason Czyz, Amy Eappen, Mark Overmann, Max Undeland, Samantha Schifrin, Pragneya Sharma and John Guirguis. — Substack celebrated America’s 250th last night at City Tavern Club with a happy hour celebrating the nation’s revolutionary writers. SPOTTED: Diane Rehm, Anita McBride, Ryan Lizza, Catherine Valentine, Kahlil Greene, John Bridgeland, Colleen Shogan and a real-life Thomas Paine impersonator. — SPOTTED at the Council on Foreign Relations’ curtain-raiser ahead of the World Cup last night: Reps. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) and Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Andrew Giuliani, Haley Carter, Ben Chang, Ray Bucheger, Michael Vaughn Cherubin, Rick Wade, Kat Khosrowyar, Artur Orkisz, Jessica Miller, Bijan Salehizadeh and Paul Angelo. — The American Telemedicine Association’s ATA Action hosted a reception last night at the Capitol Hill Club ahead of its Hill Day today. SPOTTED: Reps. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.), Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), Julie Fedorchak (R-N.D.), Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) and David Schweikert (R-Ariz.). TRANSITIONS — Emily Lavery is now a government affairs adviser at K&L Gates. She most recently worked at Fulcrum Public Affairs. … Jesse Barba is now head of government affairs at Pinterest. He most recently worked at Cengage Group and is a Chegg alum. … Hailey Beitler is now a special assistant to the acting director and principal deputy director of the Energy Department’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security adviser, and Katie Miller, host of “The Katie Miller Podcast,” welcomed Hawthorne Hayes Miller on June 3. He joins three older siblings. Pics Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. |
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