Return of the debt ceiling drama

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Tara Palmeri

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DRIVING THE DAY

SCOOP OF THE DAY — "A former D.C. National Guard official is accusing two senior Army leaders of lying to Congress and participating in a secret attempt to rewrite the history of the military's response to the Capitol riot," Betsy Woodruff Swan and Meridith McGraw report. In a 36-page memo, Col. EARL MATTHEWS, who held high-level National Security Council and Pentagon roles during the Trump administration, slams the Pentagon's inspector general for what he calls an error-riddled report that protects a top Army official who argued against sending the National Guard to the Capitol on Jan. 6, delaying the insurrection response for hours.

"Matthews' memo, sent to the Jan. 6 select committee this month and obtained by POLITICO, includes detailed recollections of the insurrection response as it calls two Army generals … 'absolute and unmitigated liars' for their characterization of the events of that day. Matthews has never publicly discussed the chaos of the Capitol siege." The memo

SHOCKING/NOT SHOCKING READ OF THE DAY — WaPo's Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey scrutinize the seven days between DONALD TRUMP's positive coronavirus diagnosis and his hospitalization and finding that he "came in contact with more than 500 people, either those in proximity to him or at crowded events, not including rallygoers. … That seven-day window reveals a president and chief of staff [MARK MEADOWS] who took a reckless, and potentially dangerous, approach to handling the coronavirus, including Trump's own positive test."

DEBT CEILING BACK AT THE FORE — Congress' holiday season theme of governing by crisis continues this week, as lawmakers return to Washington to address what could be the trickiest issue of the month: the debt ceiling.

House Democratic leaders have discussed adding a provision addressing the debt ceiling to the final National Defense Authorization Act and voting on it as soon as this week, according to a senior Democratic aide. That's assuming, of course, that compromise NDAA language is ironed out between the two chambers. Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL has privately signaled to Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER that he could go along with this idea, which would end their months-long stalemate.

BUT, BUT, BUT — There are serious questions about whether this defense-debt ceiling sandwich could pass the House. And much of that is because of one man who might typically be aligned with McConnell, but on this issue appears opposed: KEVIN MCCARTHY.

First, let's look at the tricky math here:

ON THE LEFT: Thirty-eight House Democrats voted against the NDAA the first time it came to the floor in September, namely progressives who have long opposed the overall size of the Pentagon budget. Democratic leaders believe they could pick up some of those 38 if they tack on a debt ceiling solution, twisting their arms to swallow the bill by arguing it simply has to pass. The question is, how many? They don't know yet.

ON THE RIGHT: Democratic leaders expect many of the 75 House Republicans who helped them pass the NDAA earlier this year will peel off if they add a debt provision. That's especially true if they receive pressure from MAGA world, the Freedom Caucus or even GOP leaders to oppose the pairing.

Still, Democrats who are fans of this idea hope a mix of defense-minded GOP hawks loath to oppose any defense bill, and more moderate Republicans eager to avoid default, could compensate for any progressives they lose on the vote. They also acknowledge that this proposal could fall totally flat, leaving them scrambling to find another move this week.

MCCARTHY V. MCCONNELL ON THE DEBT CEILING? — The House minority leader panned the NDAA-debt ceiling idea twice last week, albeit rather gently. He's said he doesn't think Democrats could get the votes and encouraged the party to raise the debt ceiling on their own using reconciliation, as McConnell had been doing for months.

Democrats seem to be hoping that McConnell can persuade McCarthy to give just enough GOP lawmakers an inconspicuous green light to vote for the combo and send it to the Senate. That seems naïve: McCarthy wants to be speaker and will almost certainly come under pressure from the far-right to take a position and enforce it. We reached out to McCarthy's team last night to find out if he intended to whip his members against this bill, but didn't receive an answer.

IS THERE A PLAN B IF THIS FAILS? Schumer and McConnell's offices have been very circumspect about their ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. The two haven't been out there bashing each other or making demands on the issue the way they were a few months ago. Notably, McConnell hasn't been heard lately insisting Democrats need to use reconciliation to address it. Perhaps that's a good sign, but good feelings alone won't get the job done. Get ready for another crazy week.

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

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BOB DOLE died early Sunday morning. President JOE BIDEN ordered flags to be flown at half-staff to honor the Senate dealmaker, presidential candidate and war hero. NYT's Sheryl Gay Stolberg captured his extraordinary life in an analysis that posted hours later: "Mr. Dole, a Kansas Republican who overcame the poverty of the Great Depression and grievous injuries sustained during World War II, brought his prairie values and no-nonsense manner when he arrived in Washington in 1961. Over the next 35 years — through eight years in the House, 27 in the Senate and three failed attempts to win the presidency — he operated in a city that was conducive to his instincts as a deal maker.

"It is perhaps trite to reminisce about and romanticize a 'bygone era' in Washington, when politicians of opposing parties fought by day and socialized with one another at night. There was plenty of partisanship — some of it every bit as bitter as what exists today — during Mr. Dole's time in the Capitol.

"But there also is no denying that the climate was different, and the facts speak for themselves: Both as a senator and as the Republican leader, a job he held from 1985 until 1996, Mr. Dole reached across the aisle to help push through a string of bipartisan legislation, such as a bill to rescue Social Security, the Americans With Disabilities Act and a measure to overhaul the welfare system."

National Review's Craig Shirley writes of Dole's legacy: "He was the first and the best of the compassionate conservatives. Before pundits and pollsters drove the phrase into oblivion, a compassionate conservative was a statesman who never let his zeal or passion for the proliferation of freedom and liberty undermine a foundation of kindness, humility, and empathy. Dole could negotiate and compromise with the best and most intransigent of them, yet would never disavow his principles for political gain."

Nelson Warfield, who was national press secretary for Dole's 1996 presidential campaign, writes for NYT Opinion: "Over and over again, in speech after speech, he told his campaign he was going to say what he wanted. We thought that was a problem. Looking back, I think it was a treasure. See, Mr. Dole didn't want to be packaged like a product or traffic in the staged outrage that today would be praised for generating attention, the currency of politics. It could be that his resistance to our demands to recite talking points or perform anger hurt his campaign. But if so, I now see that as an indictment of what politics was becoming in 1996 and what politics has become today."

The Kansas City Star obit, by Jake Thompson, Steve Kraske, Bryan Lowry and Jonathan Shorman … An NYT roundup of some of Dole's best one-liners

One programming note: We hear memorial services for Dole could affect Congress' schedule this week.

 

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BIDEN'S MONDAY:

— 10 a.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 2 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on prescription drugs.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up JESSICA ROSENWORCEL's nomination as an FCC commissioner, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE is out until tomorrow.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD:

— Tuesday: Biden will hold a video call with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN.

— Wednesday: Biden will travel to Kansas City, Mo., and deliver remarks on his agenda.

— Thursday: The president will host the virtual Summit for Democracy, where he will deliver opening remarks and participate in the Leaders' plenary.

— Friday: Biden will host the virtual Summit for Democracy and deliver closing remarks.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden wave as they arrive at the 44th Kennedy Center Honors at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021. Vice President Kamala Harris, and second gentleman Doug Emhoff, applaud at right.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden wave as they arrive at the 44th Kennedy Center Honors at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts on Sunday, Dec. 5. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo

ALL POLITICS

THE MAR-A-LAGO KINGMAKER — POLITICO Senate campaigns reporter Natalie Allison on Sunday night scooped a big development in a key 2022 Senate race: "Donald Trump brokered a deal this weekend to clear the North Carolina GOP Senate field for Rep. TED BUDD, the candidate he endorsed in June but who has failed to emerge so far as the clear frontrunner. During a meeting at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, Trump pledged to endorse former GOP Rep. MARK WALKER, who is currently in third place in the Senate primary, if Walker leaves the race and runs again for the House instead, according to multiple sources present at the gathering.

"'Trump offered Walker the endorsement, and it's expected to get rolled out this week,' said JACK MINOR, Walker's former chief of staff."

HE'S RUNNING — Former Sen. DAVID PERDUE is gearing up to run against Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP in the Republican primary for the governor's slot, our Marc Caputo scooped Sunday. "Perdue, who was recruited to run against the governor by Trump, intends to make his announcement Monday via video and file his paperwork at the same time. The former senator has discussed getting additional fundraising and endorsement support from Trump and that it will be forthcoming."

THE WHITE HOUSE

CHINA BACKLASH — Sources tell CNN's Kaitlan Collins that the president "is expected to announce this week that no U.S. government officials will attend the 2022 Beijing Olympics, implementing a diplomatic boycott of the games. … The move would allow the US to send a message on the world stage to China without preventing U.S. athletes from competing. A full boycott is not expected, meaning U.S. athletes will still be allowed to compete." WaPo's Josh Rogin broke the news a few weeks back

ESCAPE PLAN — Internal polling has Democrats on the Hill worried about their prospects in the midterms next year as Biden struggles to burnish his reputation among voters. "A poll from House Democrats' campaign arm earlier this month showed the president down in battleground districts across the country, with 52 percent of voters disapproving of the job he's doing, according to three party members briefed on the data," Heather Caygle, Burgess Everett and Jon Lemire report . "Their proposed antidote: Finish the battles over legislating as quickly as possible, then spend their next few months talking up their infrastructure and coronavirus relief laws, as well as their forthcoming social spending bill."

 

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THE PANDEMIC

PARTISAN PANDEMIC — An NPR analysis found that "since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for DONALD TRUMP during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from Covid-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. …

"NPR looked at deaths per 100,000 people in roughly 3,000 counties across the U.S. from May 2021, the point at which vaccinations widely became available. People living in counties that went 60 percent or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.7 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher Covid-19 mortality rates."

CONGRESS

TOP-ED — Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA has an op-ed in the Arizona Republic touting the bipartisan infrastructure bill — namely the across-the-aisle work that went into it. "Rather than feeding our divisions with extreme rhetoric, all-or-nothing purity tests, and personal attacks, the 10 Senators who negotiated this jobs bill showed America something different. We shut out noise from the extremes, refused to demonize each other when we had disagreements, and focused instead on identifying creative solutions and commonsense compromises to 'get to yes' and get the job done…"

MEDIAWATCH

180-DEGREE TURN — Earlier this year, CNN President JEFF ZUCKER defended CHRIS CUOMO after allegations surfaced Cuomo helped his brother sort out sexual harrasment claims. Zucker said in May that Cuomo "had 'made a mistake,' but also said he wasn't surprised that the anchor discussed the matter with his brother. Mr. Zucker said suspending Chris Cuomo would be 'punishment for the sake of punishing,'" WSJ's Benjamin Mullin and Joe Flint write. But "everything changed this past week. … Mr. Zucker was taken by surprise by the attorney general's report, and felt Mr. Cuomo misled him. On Saturday he completed a U-turn, firing Mr. Cuomo on a call."

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — In her first TV interview since her release from prison, Reality Winner, a former NSA linguist, tells CBS' Scott Pelley on "60 Minutes" that she was doing her duty to the American people when she gave the media classified information about Russian hacking of the 2016 election.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

"The guy from POLITICO" was trying to get the scoop on Connor Roy in last night's episode of HBO's "Succession."

Thomas Massie's disturbing family holiday card — showing him and family members, children included, posing with guns in front of a Christmas tree — prompted outrage after the Michigan high school shooting.

SPOTTED: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) Christmas shopping at Urban Outfitters in Georgetown.

A STAR-STUDDED EVENING: "The lifetime achievement awards for artistic excellence will be presented Sunday night in a gala at the Kennedy Center's main opera house after the coronavirus pandemic forced delays and major changes to last year's plans," AP's Ashraf Khalil and Colleen Long report. "Honorees include Motown Records creator BERRY GORDY, 'Saturday Night Live' mastermind LORNE MICHAELS, actress-singer BETTE MIDLER, opera singer JUSTINO DIAZ and folk music legend JONI MITCHELL. [It] also represents a return to political normalcy, with Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN attending."

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Democratic Attorneys General Association is hiring a slate of new senior staff: Michelle Ortiz will be deputy executive director and COS, Geoff Burgan will be comms director, Megan Hughes will be research director, Emily Rossi will be digital director and David Sanchez will be political director.

— Elbridge Colby is joining American Global Strategies as a senior adviser. He previously was a senior adviser at WestExec Advisors and is a DoD alum.

— Jordan Burris is joining Socure as senior director of product market strategy and public sector. He most recently was COS in the White House Office of the Federal Chief Information Officer.

TRANSITIONS — Alex Sarabia is now comms director for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). He most recently was comms director and senior advisor for Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) and is a Julián Castro and Warren campaign alum. … Lauren Chou is now press secretary for Mandela Barnes' Senate campaign in Wisconsin. She previously was comms director for Hala Ayala's campaign for lieutenant governor in Virginia.

ENGAGED — Julie Rheinstrom, counsel at the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship, and Joshua Fattal, associate at Goodwin Procter LLP, got engaged on Saturday at the Lincoln Memorial. Pics

— Olivia Perez-Cubas, SVP of comms at Bullpen Strategy Group and a Marco Rubio alum, and Hooff Cooksey, who runs the political consulting firm HC Strategies, got engaged on Saturday. The couple was introduced through a mutual friend, and Hooff proposed in the backyard of their Capitol Hill home, followed by a celebration with family and friends. Pic

— Amanda Farnan, comms director for D.C. Councilmember Christina Henderson, a D.C. advisory neighborhood commissioner and a POLITICO alum, and Christopher Fuldner, a commercial real estate broker for Michael Goldman & Associates, got engaged on Saturday. The couple met when they both worked at Millie's in 2017. Amanda asked Christopher out a few times, and then he finally said yes. He proposed at the Lincoln Memorial. Pic … Another pic

WEDDINGS — Megan Trzcinski, senior director of Strategic Alliances and Outreach at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and Nick Vaugh, a lobbyist at the Chamber, got married on Friday in an oceanside celebration at The Dunes Golf and Beach Club in Myrtle Beach, S.C. The couple met at work. Pic

— Sarah Anne Voyles, comms director for Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Texas), and Jay Sulzmann, lobbyist for HLP&R Advocacy, got married on Nov. 20 in Sandy Springs, Ga. The two met while working for former Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) and started dating just before the pandemic in March 2020. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Suzi Voyles, Joan and Chris Carr, Chris Devine, Tia Potskhvershvili, Allie White, Jack Overstreet, Drew Ross, Elizabeth McKay, Ryan Evans, Kate Hunter, James Decker, Amanda Baldwin, John Eunice, Janet Rossi, Kim Waskowsky, Abby McHan, Jerr Rosenbaum and Meyer Seligman.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Amy Ganz, deputy director for the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, and Scott Ganz, research fellow for the American Enterprise Institute, welcomed Skye Barbara Ganz on Saturday. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood … Washington Examiner's Hugo Gurdon … Julian Zelizer (52), celebrating by teaching his class at Princeton … Dave Lugar … Glenn Rushing … Maria Stainer … Nickie Titus … Sera Alptekin … Michael Beresik of Sen. Mark Warner's (D-Va.) office … Rachel Skaar of Sen. Michael Bennet's (D-Colo.) office … Justin Melvin of Rep. David Kustoff's (R-Tenn.) office … Julie Katzman … Joe Florio … Robert S. Rivkin … Jeff Mayers … Larry Rosenthal of Spirit Rock Consulting … former Sen. Don Nickles (R-Okla.) … former Rep. Mia Love (R-Utah) … Matt Chilliak … Robert Cresanti … Angelica Annino … Bill Greene … Francis Brennan … Amy Call Well … Jeff Parcher … Kimberlin Love … Brian Mosteller … Evelyn Farkas … South Carolina Dem Chair Trav Robertson … Nancy Brinker … Antoniya Puleva … Dan Levitan of BerlinRosen … John Dogero … Rouben Gregorian … The Air Current's Jon Ostrower … Jack Gocke … VOA's Jamie Dettmer … Emily Barocas Carruth … Jerad Reimers

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N.Y. Today: Where Omicron could have spread

What you need to know for Monday.

It's Monday. Today we'll meet the person with the first case of the Omicron variant identified in the United States. We'll also look at the latest supply-chain hiccup, a shortage of cream cheese for bagel shops.

Attendees at the Anime NYC convention in Manhattan last month.Kena Betancur/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

"I'm essentially patient zero," Peter McGinn said — the first person in the United States found to have contracted the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

McGinn, a 30-year-old health care analyst from Minneapolis, may never know how he caught the virus. The test that showed he had it came back 10 days after he had attended an anime convention in Manhattan that became so chaotic that another person who was there — Lucy Camacho, 23 — described it as "Penn Station during rush hour."

By the time McGinn found out he had been infected, the virus had once again outrun the public health system. It typically takes between four and eight days from the time a sample is swabbed to identify which variant caused the infection. With such a lag, public health experts said it was unrealistic to try to untangle precisely who had infected whom, considering that some 53,000 people had attended the convention at the Javits Center.

Still, New York City health officials have sent tens of thousands of emails and text messages to convention attendees, urging them to get tested.

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Four of my colleagues — Joseph Goldstein, Julie Bosman, Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura and Roni Caryn Rabin — write that much remains unknown about Omicron, including how deadly it is or how much protection Covid vaccines provide against it. But there is a troublingly familiar drumbeat, with epidemiologists once again talking about flattening curves, wearing masks and practicing social distancing.

Nationally, several dozen cases of the Omicron variant have been identified in at least 17 states. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on the ABC News program "This Week" that the caseload is "likely to rise."

It is possible that the anime convention contributed little to the spread of Omicron. Of the roughly 30 people McGinn recalls socializing with in New York City, about half have since tested positive for the coronavirus, he said. None of the states where they live has announced that they have the Omicron variant. But on Saturday, Connecticut officials said that a man in his 60s from their state became sick with the Omicron variant in late November, days after a family member had returned from attending the anime convention.

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Dr. Ted Long, who oversees New York City's Test and Trace Corps, said he was aware of five New York City residents who attended the convention and had tested positive. But he did not know whether they had been infected with the new Omicron variant or the Delta variant, which is infecting some 1,500 people a day and driving a new surge of cases in the city. The organizers of the convention said McGinn might have contracted Omicron elsewhere.

McGinn's experience illustrates the difficulties of contact tracing. He flew into La Guardia Airport on Nov. 18, a Thursday, excited to link up with other anime fans and soak up New York. He stayed with two friends in an Airbnb rental in Hell's Kitchen and sang karaoke that Saturday night. During the day, he attended the convention.

Tian Chang, 29, one of the artists, said she felt safe from Covid-19 at first, with many attendees wearing masks, as the convention required. Her worries grew as the crowds did. She watched as masks came off while people ate, chatted with friends or found an empty corner to take a nap.

McGinn went home to Minnesota and felt unusually tired. He attributed a slight cough to asthma. Then he heard from a friend at the convention who lived in North Carolina and had just tested positive for Covid-19. On Nov. 23, he took an at-home test. The result was positive. He also went to a large testing site for a P.C.R. test.

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Other friends who had attended the convention, all vaccinated, told him that they too had been infected.

By Dec. 1, Minnesota health officials were convinced that a batch of samples they had analyzed for mutations included their first case of Omicron. A case investigator, Kathy Como-Sabetti, called McGinn to learn whom he might have exposed to the new variant. McGinn told her about the anime convention.

"I kind of went, 'Wow, well, this changes our story,' " Como-Sabetti said. Minnesota officials immediately called the New York City Health Department with the bad news.

WEATHER

It's a cloudy day, New York, with temps in the low 60s and wind gusts and showers in the late afternoon persisting through the night. In the evening, temps will drop to the mid-30s.

ALTERNATE-SIDE PARKING

In effect until Wednesday (Immaculate Conception).

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The latest supply-chain headache: Not enough cream cheese for bagels

Adam Friedlander for The New York Times

Just when you thought you'd heard everything about supply-chain problems, the schmear shortage hit New York.

That's why, behind the counter, frustrated and frazzled bagel shop owners are hoarding cream cheese.

As my colleague Ashley Wong wrote, Zabar's estimated on Friday that it had enough cream cheese to last only 10 days. Absolute Bagels, also on the Upper West Side, reported that its usual supplier in Queens had run out.

New York bagel sellers go through thousands of pounds of cream cheese every few weeks. Many shops start their mixes with Philadelphia cream cheese, a Kraft Heinz brand.

The pallets for bagel shops are not filled with the Philadelphia cream cheese sold in grocery stores. What goes to bagel shops is unprocessed and unwhipped, said bagel makers, who use it as a base for their own creations. Without that base, they said, their spreads just won't taste or feel the same.

Dairy suppliers say that in the last three weeks, cream cheese orders placed with manufacturers have come up short.

Phil Pizzano, a sales representative at Fischer Foods, a large distributor, said problems have popped up at every point along the supply chain that carries cream cheese from factories to the morning bagel, including a labor shortage in the manufacturing sector that began at the height of the coronavirus pandemic, a lack of truck drivers because of resistance to vaccine mandates and a scarcity of packaging supplies.

"If someone like us orders 1,000 cases, maybe you only get a portion," Pizzano said. "Or maybe you order a truckload, and you only get a few pallets."

A spokeswoman for Kraft Heinz said demand for several of the company's products had spiked. "As more people continue to eat breakfast at home and use cream cheese as an ingredient in easy desserts, we expect to see this trend continue," she said. To accommodate the increases, the company has been shipping 35 percent more of its product, she said.

But Christopher Pugliese, the owner of Tompkins Square Bagels, said his dairy supplier had called on Thursday night to say that the 800-pound order due the following day was not coming. After calling four other distributors, he finally got his hands on a case — except that instead of the usual giant container, the box was full of individually wrapped three-pound sticks, he said.

"It sounds kind of silly, talking about this like it's some kind of huge crisis," Pugliese said. But a bagel with cream cheese is a New York institution — and a "big deal," he said.

What we're reading

METROPOLITAN DIARY

Five lights at dawn

Dear Diary:

Monday mornings, a boy of four
stands in grass by the stoop
and clasps his mother's hand,
raises his left arm and fist
and pumps the air to see if
the driver of the garbage truck
will toot his horn, which he does,
with a grin, drawing smiles from
mother and son and the two men
who've paused at the curb before
tossing more bags in the bin.

— Tom Furlong

Glad we could get together here. See you tomorrow. — J.B.

Melissa Guerrero, Rick Martinez and Olivia Parker contributed to New York Today. You can reach the team at nytoday@nytimes.com.

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