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By Ali Bianco |
Presented by Kalshi |
With help from Eli Okun and Irie Sentner Good Saturday morning — and happy Halloween. This is Ali Bianco, in the driver’s seat with a story from my hometown. Where are the D.C. hotspots for gathering on election night? We want to hear from you — and maybe see you there. Give us all the tips (and don’t forget to send us good SPOTTEDs!): playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. START YOUR DAY HERE: In an exclusive interview with POLITICO’s Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zoya Sheftalovich, Canadian PM Mark Carney said his government is prepared to wait for a new American president if a suitable trade pact can’t be reached with President Donald Trump’s White House. “We’ll have to, if that’s what it takes,” Carney told Nick and Zoya in Montreal, adding: “And American families, American businesses, will also lose out because of that. They’re not winners in this circumstance.” Carney’s remarks, made upon the conclusion of a summit with European Union officials, represent the most direct brushback to Washington in months from a leader who has calibrated his public comments on the United States amid sensitive trade talks. Read more from POLITICO’s Alex Burns, Nick and Zoya … Watch the full interview … Read the full transcript
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Maria Elvira Salazar speaks at a campaign breakfast hosted by Miami Community Newspapers on Oct. 15, 2026. | Ysana Perez for POLITICO |
MIAMI — Maria Elvira Salazar’s direct-to-camera message to the White House in September hit Washington like a political earthquake. But the shifting grounds, the red flags and the mass backlash the Miami congresswoman was seeing had been months in the making. Well before Salazar broke with her party in so public a fashion, she was calling James Blair, the head of Trump’s outside political operation, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles to deliver the same early warning that could come to define the extent of the damage the GOP might suffer on Tuesday: They’re losing Latino voters over backlash to immigration enforcement. “It’s very important for the White House, including the president, to know that he brought 55% of male Hispanics to vote with him in 2024,” Salazar told your author in an exclusive interview. “Right now in 2026, the polls are indicating that we may be losing some of that pot of gold if the Republican Party wants to stay in power and continue winning elections.” Salazar wouldn’t name the people she believes might be misleading the president on immigration policy. So what spurred her to drop the ad? “I wanted him to hear directly from me,” Salazar said. Blair and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. As more battleground Republicans struggle with Trump’s sinking approval rating and gale force Democratic winds ahead of the midterms, few have gone as far as Salazar did getting her message across — and risking the president’s wrath to do it. But Salazar’s predicament is also emblematic of a city whose immigrant community has been upended by the forced exodus of thousands of Venezuelans, Colombians, Nicaraguans and even Cubans. The GOP coalition of Latino voters that redefined the 305 is at risk of fracturing — and it’s threatening Salazar’s political survival.
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Salazar has not done an interview with national media in more than a month. She’s kept to her district, opting for local gaggles and podcast appearances — usually friendly, and almost always with a big Cuban, Venezuelan or Colombian audience. But after several months of interviews with all manner of people, both her supporters and detractors, and three weeks in Miami following her on the trail, Playbook spoke with Salazar a week out from Election Day to dig into her biggest test yet. “I’m trying to make the GOP the party that will send the message to the Hispanics that they're welcomed and that they have the same values that are entrenched in the Republican Party: God-fearing, law-abiding, tax-paying, good people, hard workers,” Salazar told Playbook. “They are here, so let’s just give them dignity so they can stay.” From her first moment in Congress, Salazar wanted to “do something that probably no other member of the GOP would have dared to do, which was to speak and talk and live and walk immigration,” she said. Her bipartisan Dignity Act is among the most divisive bills for the GOP. One of her fellow Florida colleagues has said it should “never see the light of day” in the House. It also ripped a hole in her support from MAGA, who viewed it as a complete amnesty. But she’s betting her signature policy proposal could keep enough of Latino independent voters in her corner. Today Salazar is as despised by some in her party as she is beloved by others. Local Democrats loathe her, viewing her as a hypocrite who has betrayed a vibrant city remade by an explosion of Latino culture and language. Those who support the administration’s mass deportation agenda view her as an existential threat to Trump’s restrictive immigration policies. But her prominence in Miami goes back to the heart of a Cuban anti-communist tradition that transformed the city’s politics and created one of the Republican Party’s biggest bases of Latino support. Her celebrity as a local Spanish TV reporter has made her instantly recognizable to the Latino community. It’s that same community that’s seen the highest ICE arrests of any field office in the U.S. — driving a level of fear, frustration and wariness that’s unlike anything residents have experienced here. So Salazar did what she’s done for the better part of 40 years: she got on camera. In her increasingly competitive — and contentious — race, Salazar remains a slight favorite to win. She’s significantly outspent Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, also a Cuban-American former local news fixture. Rodriguez has benefitted from late spending by the DCCC and House Majority PAC. But the race has made Salazar a test case for whether a Republican can win a majority Latino district in the era of mass deportation. “I know my district very well,” Salazar told Playbook. “That’s why I think I’ve been able to navigate, and I thank them if they want to send me back on Tuesday.” If she wins, her challenge in navigating the Republican landscape may be far from over. Read the full profile in this weekend’s POLITICO Magazine
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
Kalshi — the American exchange. Free markets. Fair markets. Transparent markets.
Learn more. |
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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW 1. JUNIOR SPRINTS: Donald Trump Jr. is set to join VP JD Vance for a two-state campaign swing Monday, an adviser to the vice president tells Playbook. The pair will start the day in Rome, New York, where they’ll rally for Republican congressional candidates Anthony Constantino in New York’s 21st District and Kailee Buller in New York’s 22nd, before heading to Swanton, Ohio, near Toledo, for another campaign stop. The election-eve appearance marks a notable pairing up for Vance and the president’s eldest son, who remains a popular figure with the GOP’s MAGA base but has been used sparingly on the campaign trail this cycle. 2. MESSY MICHIGAN: Michigan’s bitter Democratic primary is still simmering in the final days of the election — and it could have serious ramifications for the coalition Abdul El-Sayed needs to find victory on Tuesday. El-Sayed’s campaign is asking Rep. Haley Stevens to stay away from all future campaign events in the closing days of the race “as not to distract from the central issues of the campaign,” Playbook’s Adam Wren and POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Jessica Piper report. Stevens did not immediately respond to a question on if she will now stay off the trail, and did not respond to an earlier question about whether her appearance was contingent on him apologizing. El-Sayed’s campaign declined to comment. It’s clear Tuesday’s results won’t provide a resolution to Democrats’ ideological civil war in this critical battleground state, Lisa reports from Detroit. “Progressives are pushing any El-Sayed win as a major victory, while moderates are planning to mine the margins for signs of weakness on the left.” Black and Jewish voters are both displeased with Democratic efforts during the campaign, and the party’s struggle to appeal to blue-collar white voters is being tested as well. 3. DEMOCRACY WATCH: U.S. District Judge Trina Thompson ordered the Justice Department to stop threatening state and local election officials with criminal prosecution over their handling of disputes about voter qualifications, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. Thompson also ordered the Trump administration to cease demanding that election workers remove voters from statewide rolls, refuse to issue ballots to specific voters or segregate ballots cast in the midterms based on the administration’s claims that some voters are ineligible. 4. THE LAST FRONTIER: The federal investigation into the double Dan Sullivan saga is heating up. The FBI yesterday started contacting donors to Dan J. Sullivan asking about potential deception, AP’s Joshua Goodman and Jim Mustian report. “An Anchorage-based FBI agent visited a boat dealership in Petersburg, a small fishing community accessible only by air or water where the candidate lives. The agent left a business card for Charles Flint, who told The Associated Press he has known Dan J. Sullivan for years as a respected teacher and musician.” Flint told AP: “I don’t feel like I’ve been misled at all.”
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Kathy Hochul on Trump, Mamdani and New York’s future In the latest episode of On the Road, Jonathan Martin sits down with Gov. Kathy Hochul to discuss her working relationship with Mayor Zohran Mamdani, conversations with Trump over immigration enforcement and her approach to governing New York in 2026.
Watch now. |
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5. HEALTH CARE CRUNCH: Obamacare premiums are set to spike by 13% next year, according to an analysis done by KFF, meaning millions of Americans will be further pinched by a hike in coverage that’s already seen millions drop this year, NYT’s Reed Abelson and Margot Sanger-Katz report. Meanwhile, there’s a Jan. 1 deadline looming for states to implement Medicaid work requirements, but some state officials are already warning that they won’t be ready, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Robert King report. “Such complications will inevitably cause new and renewing enrollees to lose coverage even if they are working or have a legitimate exemption, state officials and the consultants working with them say.” 6. DEEP IN THE HEART: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s political machine has pumped Republican turnout for years. And Republicans in the state are hoping that Abbott’s finely tuned, expansive GOTV operation can save the likes of Ken Paxton. But Abbott’s unexpectedly tight fight for a fourth term is testing whether the most powerful political force in Texas can fall — and determine what becomes of the Texas GOP if voters deliver a blow to the heart of American conservatism, Liz Crampton reports for POLITICO Magazine. 7. A NAME TO KNOW: “The DeSantis Loyalist Taking on Big Tech,” by Andrew Atterbury for POLITICO Magazine: “As Congress punts on regulating AI and tech titans openly fret about its existential threat, Florida stands out as an example for those who hope to decelerate the frantic growth of AI. There’s a reason for that. Last year … [Gov. Ron] DeSantis installed a key player to score points for the governor’s tech agenda: [AG James] Uthmeier, his former chief of staff. Through a combination of subpoenas, lawsuits and constant public pressure, Uthmeier has aggressively positioned Florida’s most powerful legal office into a new front in the battle over artificial intelligence and the tech companies behind it.”
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A message from Kalshi:  
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CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 18 funnies
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GREAT WEEKEND READS AND TOP-EDS: — Ken Paxton’s closing bus tour in the Texas Senate race gets an up-close look from Vanity Fair’s Aidan McLaughlin, who observes a candidate “limping” toward the finish. “On the Come and Take It bus tour, Paxton was less a glimpse of Trumpism’s future than a showcase of what might be left behind when Trump is gone,” McLaughlin writes. — A team of seven NYT reporters dives deep on the deterioration of America’s science dominance under Trump. The White House’s actions to hem in science are “jeopardizing the nation’s advantages in defense, medicine and technology” and eroding the country’s scientific edge as global rivals challenge U.S. dominance in fields that will help define the 21st century,” NYT notes. — Go inside the “five whirlwind days” that preceded the stunning collapse of Wall Street stalwart Weil, Gotshal & Manges, via WSJ’s Erin Mulvaney, Cara Lombardo, Corinne Ramey and Jasmine Li. “The idea that a run on top talent could take down even a leading firm in a matter of weeks has sent a shudder across the legal industry,” WSJ writes. — Is there under-the-radar hope for Republicans on Tuesday? Vox’s Astead Herndon explores one case of that theory: “Over the years, I’ve found the No. 1 motivator of Republican voters on Election Day to be the expectation of a Democratic wave.” — The U.S. national debt is still rapidly expanding. But it’s rarely a topic of central discussion. So where did Washington’s fiscal hawks go? WSJ’s Richard Rubin and David Luhnow examine: “They hit a wall of indifference and retired, lost elections, changed the subject or became doves.” — Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) pens a scathing swatdown of Trump’s recent moves to squeeze Ukraine and offer an olive branch to Russia for WSJ: “If the president means what he says about ending the conflict, he should look to the wisdom of the American people, not naive businessmen who seem to think diplomacy entails fawning over adversaries.”
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
Kalshi — the American exchange. Free markets. Fair markets. Transparent markets.
Learn more. |
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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ARCH SUPPORT — U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan seemed skeptical yesterday of the Trump administration’s bid to begin construction on Trump’s proposed triumphal arch at the foot of Arlington National Cemetery, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports. Chutkan said she would weigh the matter over the weekend. This morning, D.C. and Virginia sued to block construction of the arch from commencing, calling Trump’s project “flagrantly unlawful,” WaPo’s Meagan Flynn and Dan Diamond report. “The two jurisdictions are asking a federal judge to halt the plan and argue that they have ‘indisputable standing’ to bring their lawsuit because the towering arch would have tangible, negative effects on the region — an argument that distinguishes their lawsuit from others that have tried to stop Trump’s construction projects.” MEDIA MOVE — Josh Keating is joining WaPo to cover U.S. diplomacy and foreign policy. He previously worked at Vox. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Abdul El-Sayed … former Reps. David Jolly (R-Fla.) and John Barrow (D-Ga.) … RNC’s Mike Ambrosini … Jane Pauley … Roger Carstens … NYT’s Michael Kruse and Frank Bruni … Lee Fang … former Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño … NBC’s Elias Miller … Peter Pasi of Zeta Global … Clay Heil of Crowley … Ryan Morgan of Veracity Media … Luke Mullins … Marilyn Rosenthal of AIPAC … Sam Tanenhaus … Joe Kon … Lisa Hagen of CT Mirror and CT Public … Rokk Solutions’ Rachel Winer … retired Lt. Gen. Ricky Waddell … George Bogden … Justin Bis … Kenny Thompson Jr. … Brian Kettenring … Kara Gerhardt Ross … Dan Rather … Betsy Woodruff Swan … Nathan Clark of Jones Mandel … Jack Evans … Olivia Dalton of Apple … Piper Perabo … POLITICO’s Nathan Mellott … Mark Jacobson THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): CBS “Face the Nation”: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent … Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro … David Becker … Anthony Salvanto. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) … Charles Payne. Panel: Jason Riley, Karl Rove and Jessica Tarlov. CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) … Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek. Panel: David Chalian, Nia-Malika Henderson and Jeff Zeleny. NBC “Meet the Press”: Steve Kornacki with new polling … Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.). Panel: Val Demings, Nikki Haley, Ryan Nobles and Amy Walter. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: DNC Chair Ken Martin … Ronna McDaniel … Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger … Sean Trende … Scott Tranter … Bill Sammon. Panel: Margaret Talev, Jessica Taylor and Chuck Lane. MS NOW “The Weekend”: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear … Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) … Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) … Elise Jordan. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) … Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) … Lara Trump … Miranda Devine … Marc Thiessen. ABC “This Week”: Politics panel: Martha Raddatz, Jonathan Karl, Pierre Thomas, Mary Bruce, Rachel Scott, Ian Pannell, Elizabeth Schulze, Jay O’Brien, Trevor Ault and Rick Klein. Panel: Donna Brazile, Chris Christie, Kevin McCarthy and Heidi Heitkamp. PBS “Compass Points,” remote from Israel: Anshel Pfeffer. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the NewsNation reporter to whom Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy gave an interview. It was Blake Burman. |
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