The art of the Iran deal

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Jun 12, 2026 View in browser   By Eli Okun Presented by  THE CATCH-UP A woman walks past an anti-American mural on the wall of the former U.S. Embassy, now a museum, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) | Vahid Salemi/AP LET’S MAKE A DEAL: Not for the first time in three and a half months of the Iran war, a peace agreement appears within reach — but sniping and disagreements could still derail the final stages of this first big diplomatic accord. The positive signs for peace: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a U.S.-Iran deal “has never been closer,” echoing President Donald Trump’s optimistic sentiments when he called off major strikes yesterday. Both sides are making plans for a possible signing with VP JD Vance on hand, which could happen as soon as Sunday (Trump’s 80th birthday) in Geneva ahead of next week’s G7 summit nearby in the French Alps, Bloomberg’s Fiona MacDonald scooped. The deal would continue the ceasefire for another two months. The stumbling blocks: Trump fumed today after reports of the details of the memorandum of understanding appeared in various outlets. He wrote on Truth Social that those were not the terms agreed to, without getting into any details, and lambasted the Iranians: “Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith,” he wrote. “They better get their act together, and FAST!” Vance, too, sought to tamp down criticism of the emerging deal, writing on X that “the Iranians are not receiving any cash” and that the country would access economic benefits only if it complies with the terms of the agreement. The administration’s pushback comes after drafts and accounts of the text were published, including in hard-line Iranian state media outlets. Reuters’ Parisa Hafezi and colleagues report that the memorandum seems to include many of the principal demands Tehran had made — chiefly, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and the lifting of sanctions in exchange for Iran finally opening up the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear talks would come afterward. It remains unclear whether the memorandum would address the destruction of enriched uranium: One top U.S. official says it will, while other drafts omit the key Washington priority. “Performance-based deal” is the phrase of the day from the U.S. side, insisting that Iran deliver results to get more relief. Whether the deal addresses Lebanon, where Israel’s war against Hezbollah has largely continued, also remains to be seen. Several thousand people have died, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. But if it comes together, the deal could provide massive relief to the global economy, which has buckled as Iran choked off maritime traffic and a key source of oil through the strait. The war’s intense inflationary pressure in the U.S. and even deeper economic pain in much of the world might ease with a reopening. Dwindling oil supplies in many countries have led to growing fears of shortages, not just high prices. But Energy Secretary Chris Wright said today that 7 million barrels are still getting through the strait each day, per Bloomberg. That number is somewhat higher than expected, but still just half of the pre-war volume. Whether Trump could really stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon — his stated goal of the war, and one that remains distant — would be left for the next phase of negotiations. CNN’s Natasha Bertrand and Zachary Cohen scooped that last month, the U.S. came very close to launching a risky ground operation to seize Iranian uranium, but Trump ultimately called it off. Is this time really different? The conflicting accounts of the text from the U.S. and Iran — while neither country has released the details — leave plenty of room for things to go awry. Read more from POLITICO’s Emilio Perez Ibarguen But Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif declared today that “a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps. Peace has never been this close as it is now.” Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.   A message from Meta: America’s Workforce Academy: Paid training, a job and a path to America's future. For 250 years, America has delivered the world’s greatest inventions because Americans built them. The AI revolution will bring historic opportunity. America's Workforce Academy, built by Meta, will train the electricians, welders, crew leaders, plumbers, fiber installers and more who will bring it about by offering paid training, with a job upon completion. Because the future is for everyone. Explore the program.   5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW 1. WEAPONIZATION WATCH: Federal judge Leonie Brinkema today extended her block on Trump’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund,” saying she would keep the ruling in place despite acting AG Todd Blanche telling Congress they were junking the idea, per POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein. But Brinkema said she may agree the case is moot if Blanche and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent within the next week formally declare, under penalty of perjury, that they will not create the fund. She noted Trump’s own unhappiness over the fund being canceled as reason for caution. 2. RACE CALL: More than a week after the primary election, the tight GOP contest in New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District has officially been called for Rosie Pino, per AP’s Mike Catalini. The Clifton City council member will take on freshman Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou in a district that rocketed to the right in 2024, voting for Trump — but this year looks like a reach goal for Republicans. 3. DEMOCRACY WATCH: The FBI yesterday raided offices and appeared at staffers’ homes of the voting rights group Ohio Organizing Collaborative, MS NOW’s Carol Leonnig and colleagues scooped. One board member for the organization, which works on voter registration, pro-democracy work and anti-gerrymanding advocacy, said agents asked about voter fraud with “straight-up intimidation tactics,” amid the Trump administration’s broader push to promote false claims of widespread fraud. The FBI didn’t respond for comment. 4. WHAT’S IN STORE FOR NATO: A U.S. document shows a significant planned pullback in military contributions to NATO, slashing fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, aerial refueling tanker jets and more, NYT’s Christopher Schuetze and Eric Schmitt report. The drawdown “would limit NATO’s ability to launch long-range strikes and conduct surveillance,” as it reflects the Trump administration’s desire to cut its support for the alliance. The U.S. pivot away from Europe leaves NATO working to figure out how it’ll continue to defend itself at the same level through other means, AP’s Lorne Cook reports. 5. DIAMONDS AND COAL: A major new effort to create the U.S.’ first new coal-fired power plant in more than a decade is in the hands of little-known TerraSpark and Alex Phillips, POLITICO’s Zack Colman and colleagues report. The big West Virginia project, which has already gotten $18.5 million for a study, is being led by figures with greater ties to GOP politics and 2020 election conspiracy theories than to the energy world. But TerraSpark and DOE said the contract was awarded in a competitive process sans favoritism.   A message from Meta:   TALK OF THE TOWN WHAT TO READ BEFORE TONIGHT’S GAME — “What’s really at stake between the US and Paraguay,” by POLITICO’s Sasha Issenberg: “The Trump administration has deployed assiduous, patient diplomacy with Paraguay, enlivened by its newly aligned interests in making the country a hub for U.S.-backed data center projects.” PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “This Lawyer Spent Years Fighting His $100 D.C. Speeding Ticket,” by NOTUS’ Martin Austermuhle: “Matt Ricciardi got the citation tossed out by the D.C. Court of Appeals. His victory could benefit other drivers.” OUT AND ABOUT — The Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center, GlobalWIN and the Foundation for Art & Preservation in Embassies hosted an “Art and Conversation” event last night celebrating America’s 250th anniversary and the Irene and Richard Frary Gallery’s current exhibition, “Artistic Generosity and the American Artist Abroad.” SPOTTED: Helen Milby, Sumi Somaskanda, Anne Helmreich, Ashleigh de la Torre, Cybele Bjorklund, Eden Rafshoon, Caitlin Berry, Angeli Chawla, Rhea Combs, April Boyd, Ali O’Donnell, Teki Akuetteh, Laurie McKay, Ruth Schipper, Cait O’Connor, Dorothee Schneider, Craig Metz, Caroline Paris-Behr and Catherine Valentine. POLITICO MOVES — Mark Satter is joining POLITICO’s defense team. He currently works at CQ Roll Call. … Joey Fox is joining POLITICO as a New Jersey reporter. He previously worked at the New Jersey Globe. TRANSITIONS — Bethany Holden is now press secretary for the Senate Commerce Committee. She previously worked for Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas). … Jon Treichler is joining Think Big as director of public affairs. He previously has worked at Sunwater Capital. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM mistakenly included some guests on a spotted list for an Insured Retirement Institute event.   Follow us on X Eli Okun @eliokun Ali Bianco @_alibianco Irie Sentner @iriesentner   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Canada Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters Follow us