Mike Johnson’s hopes and fears

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Aug 06, 2026 View in browser   By Dasha Burns, Adam Wren and Will Steakin Presented by  With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Thursday morning from the campaign trail in Arizona, where this edition starts before a touchdown in D.C. and a Michigan layover in between. There’s a lot to unpack, so buckle in and get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Mike Johnson’s campaign messaging is equal parts hope, fear and wishful spinning. — Senate Republicans huddle on their midterm strategy in the aftermath of Michigan. — The Boldfaces: Jay Feely, James Blair, Alex Latcham, Tony Fabrizio, Tim Scott, John Thune, Abdul El-Sayed, James Talarico, Darline Graham, Todd Blanche and more. DRIVING THE DAY SCOTTSDALE, Arizona — Speaker Mike Johnson’s midterm sales pitch touts Republicans’ landmark tax cuts, massive border security investment, Democrats’ drift toward “Marxism” and one “very boring 90-minute slideshow” encompassing it all. The problem is the war with Iran keeps interrupting the presentation. On a nearly 30-day campaign swing that will take him through 18 states and roughly 34 congressional districts, Johnson readily acknowledges his party must defy nearly a century of political history to keep its majority. Enter the “Ambassador of Hope.” That’s how the speaker described himself at an event in support of Jay Feely in Arizona’s 1st District, where your Playbook author caught up with him on the campaign trail after an exclusive sit-down in the Grand Canyon State. He made the same argument on POLITICO's “The Conversation” podcast this week as he did to Arizona voters: Republicans have a strong record, favorable candidates and a better map than they did halfway through President Donald Trump’s first term. Watch the full episode Johnson speaks with Dasha in Arizona for the latest episode of POLITICO's "The Conversation." | POLITICO Video He pitched the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as a direct financial benefit for working Americans and repeatedly returned to immigration, telling voters in this border state that Republicans delivered on Trump’s promise to secure the southern border. That’s the campaign Johnson wants to run. Iran is the campaign he may actually have to run. “The economy was starting to take off like a rocket in Q1,” he told voters in Scottsdale. “Then we got into the skirmish with Iran.” When pressed by your Playbook author on rising gas prices and fertilizer costs as a result of that skirmish (which he quickly amended to “war, whatever you want to call it”), the speaker argued the administration had “taken the head off the snake” by targeting Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Feely shared a different perspective from voters on the ground: “I think it's a visceral reaction that people have to the war and not wanting to have a war,” he said, emphasizing the need to “keep the big picture in mind and talk about that.” A message from Anthropic: How a small shop finds new ways to create using Claude New ways to create start with new ways to solve problems. Joe Bacus and Leef Armontrout, founders of BLA Studios in St. Louis, are doing both with Claude—from welding machinery, to a steel-saving program, to community improvements. Learn more.   But that big picture is murky at best, with months of on-again-off-again ceasefires and threats. Republicans working to protect the majority are openly anxious about what happens if the war continues into the fall, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, and gas prices stay above $4 a gallon. “The headwind we have right now, let's be frank, is the unsettled situation with Iran,” Johnson acknowledged between impressions of Trump and subsequent laughs while speaking with voters Wednesday. “We have to get gas prices at planet earth and we have to get this thing to stabilize.” Asked whether the bottom would fall out beneath Republicans under those circumstances, Johnson was unequivocal: “Absolutely not,” he said. “We’re gonna win this election whether we resolve the Iran situation before the election or not.” And where hope fails, the back half of the speaker’s pitch suggests fear could prevail by shifting voters’ focus toward an existential contrast with Democrats. Johnson repeatedly described the election as a “cataclysmic battle” between “common sense and communism,” arguing an ascendant socialist left could motivate Republican voters as powerfully as anger motivates Democrats. He said Tuesday’s results gave Republicans plenty to work with. On today’s Playbook Podcast: Dasha and Playbook’s Megan Messerly talk through the subtext of the speaker’s campaign swing and what Thanksgiving has to do with the Wisconsin primaries next week.   A message from Anthropic: How a small shop finds new ways to create using Claude New ways to create start with new ways to solve problems. Learn more.   THE DOWNLOAD HILL HUDDLE: James Blair and Alex Latcham, of the Senate GOP leadership-aligned SLF super PAC, joined pollster Tony Fabrizio for a briefing for Senate Republicans on midterm messaging and affordability yesterday, Dasha and Adam report. The big question hanging over the room, according to a person in attendance: When is Trump going to focus on the midterms and take the advice of his own team? Inside the room: Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) asked when Trump would start attacking Democrats instead of attacking Republicans. And Senate Majority Leader John Thune underscored the need to focus on the swing voters that would determine the outcome of close races in Maine, Michigan and North Carolina. Latcham emphasized the close working relationship between NRSC, White House and MAGA Inc. What didn’t come up: Iran. But Fabrizio did acknowledge that the inflation and affordability issue spiked when gas prices went up. NRSC Chair Tim Scott was upbeat. SCOTT’S THOUGHTS: Playbook caught up with Scott after the meeting. “According to their polling data, what Americans care a lot about, of course, is affordability,” he told Adam. “The polling data and the polling presentation was very clear that we are on solid ground. We just need to make sure that we tell the American people what we've accomplished and what [Democrats] voted against.” On Michigan: Scott expressed optimism on flipping Michigan’s Senate seat after Abdul El-Sayed’s win. “I am certainly and possibly a little more bullish,” Scott said of GOP nominee Mike Rogers. “He is running a very strong race.” A new NRSC memo obtained by Playbook refers to El-Sayed by his full name, Abdulrahaman Mohamed El-Sayed, and calls him the “most extreme Senate nominee in modern history.” The memo says Michigan is Dems’ “most important defense state in the fight for Senate control.” On Texas and getting outspent: “I think we will have the resources to win everywhere we go,” Scott said. “I’m excited about where we are in that race. I also am really excited about whacking [James] Talarico on all of his insane positions before we get to the policy positions that he's just consistently out of step with.” On South Carolina: “I think Darline [Graham] will win this race,” Scott said. MORE ON MICHIGAN: Speaking with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins last night, El-Sayed urged unity among Democrats, and said he “should hope” Rep. Haley Stevens will join him on the campaign trail. And on Democrats worried he can’t win in November: “We don't need worry. We need work.” DECISION DAY IN TENNESSEE: All eyes in the Volunteer State today will be on whether Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) can fend off a GOP challenge for his reelection bid in the 5th District. The primary has the Trump-endorsed incumbent pitted against former agriculture commissioner Charlie Hatcher. More from POLITICO’s Andrew Howard (for Pros!) NO JET FUMES: The Senate is heading into what should have been its last day before recess with no deal to speed up votes on government funding or a Russia sanctions bill, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. But the general outline of a deal has started taking shape even if it keeps senators around a bit longer. “Don’t kill the vibe — it’s starting to pick up,” Thune told Jordain. What about SAVE? The exit strategy may not include advancing a budget resolution on reconciliation 3.0. But a vote on a SAVE America Act-related voter ID bill or on the House’s stock trading ban (with SAVE attached) could come up, per Jordain. The bigger dilemma is Todd Blanche’s AG nomination, which is teetering on the brink as GOP Sens. Bill Cassidy and Lisa Murkowski remain mum on whether they’ll vote for him. Both met with Blanche yesterday in the Capitol basement.   Pete Buttigieg talks AI wealth, 2028 and Democrats’ next chapter In the latest episode of On the Road, Jonathan Martin sits down with Pete Buttigieg in Traverse City for a conversation on the future of the Democratic Party, the Michigan Senate race, economic inequality and why Buttigieg says the next era of American politics will require bigger ideas. Watch now.     THE FRONT PAGE WHERE DEMS WILL GATHER: Majority Democrats is announcing “What's Next,” a post-midterms gathering from Nov. 12-14 in Denver, Colorado — one of the cities in contention to host the 2028 DNC, Adam scoops. “[T]he leaders, ideas, and debates that will shape the party through 2028 and beyond will take center stage,” according to the announcement shared first with Playbook. It’ll include elected officials and potential 2028 presidential candidates, along with their staff. SIDE HUSTLER: Jennifer Mascott, a Trump-appointed federal appeals judge, was still running a public affairs firm for at least six months after she was appointed to the bench, leading to an exodus from the firm until it went under, POLITICO’s Daniel Barnes and Jacob Wendler report. According to multiple former employees, Mascott worked once a week out of Adfero’s office and oversaw staffing, client relations and business development in between her judicial duties. She said in a statement to POLITICO she followed the appropriate legal and ethical requirements. SHRI HAPPENS: Shri Thanedar is the latest House Dem incumbent to fall to the sword of a DSA-backed insurgent candidate — a fate he didn’t see coming. “The socialist movement is sweeping across the country, and I got caught in that storm,” Thanedar told Will in his first interview since losing his primary to Donavan McKinney. Thanedar blamed a surge in turnout and broader anger at the political establishment and insisted he’s aligned with the same movement that ousted him: “At the core of it, I am a democratic socialist like they are.” Thanedar told McKinney he didn’t blame him for labeling Thanedar “Michigan's Trump.” “I’m not a person that holds grudges,” he said. “I’m a happy person.” To his fans: don't worry, he may run again: “I'm not ruling out anything.” POLITICO IN SACRAMENTO: Tune in on Tuesday, Aug. 11 at noon PT/3 p.m. ET for POLITICO’s California Agenda: Sacramento Summit, where power players will delve into the policy decisions shaping the future of energy, technology and the global economy. Key interviews include Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), California gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R), Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), California Attorney General Rob Bonta, Paramount's Makan Delrahim, OpenAI's Ann O’Leary and more. Register for the livestream here   A message from Anthropic: How a small shop finds new ways to create using Claude   5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW 1. DEAL OR NO DEAL: Iran and Oman were finalizing a draft agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give Iran oversight over the waterway (without the power to charge tolls), which has been shared with the U.S., WSJ’s Summer Said and Benoit Faucon report. But Trump’s Board of Peace plan to disarm Hamas appears to be on the verge of collapse, per WSJ. Behind the scenes: Trump’s anger over the war with Iran boiled over at the Camp David meeting last week where he demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on the military’s extreme munitions shortages, WaPo’s Tara Copp and colleagues scoop. The human cost: Airstrikes in Yemen last year killed or wounded hundreds of civilians, but the Pentagon has yet to acknowledge the casualties or share the full extent with Congress, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Dan De Luce scoop. 2. IMMIGRATION FILES: “Mullin’s immigration balancing act grows more precarious,” by POLITICO’s Myah Ward and Eric Bazail-Eimil: “[DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin’s] latest misstep underscores the precarious position he occupies and highlights the intractable problem that is likely to define his tenure … People close to the administration, including some who want to see a more aggressive deportation effort, say it will be easier to judge Mullin’s tenure after the election. Their view is that the White House wants to avoid reopening a damaging political fight on immigration enforcement ahead of the midterms.” 3. TRAIL MIX: The swirling domestic abuse allegations against Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), which he firmly denies, aren’t landing with the same shockwaves in Miller’s district, WaPo’s Alexei Koseff reports from Medina. Several voters across a conservative swath of the district were unaware of the accusations, or chalked it up to a family matter. Meanwhile in North Carolina, the state’s Republicans are scrambling to replace Rep. Chuck Edwards after he dropped out due to his own ethics scandal, and his district’s committee is meeting next Monday to make their choice, per NYT’s Eduardo Medina. A message from Anthropic: How a small shop finds new ways to create using Claude New ways to create start with new ways to solve problems. Joe Bacus and Leef Armontrout, founders of BLA Studios in St. Louis, are doing both with Claude—from welding machinery, to a steel-saving program, to community improvements. Learn more.   4. LIVE FROM NEW YORK: There’s a new arms race across both parties for persuading voters that the candidates courting their votes are part of the working class, equally financially strained and understanding, POLITICO’s Nick Reisman writes. “In a political environment where people with college degrees and six-figure jobs don’t feel as economically secure as their parents, politicians have cast a wider net for who makes up the working class.” 5. MESSIN’ WITH TEXAS: Democrat Bobby Pulido, who’s running to unseat GOP Rep. Monica de la Cruz, has been the subject of multiple headlines scrutinizing his ties to a one-time bandmate who was imprisoned on child sex molestation charges, and a series of old posts that have come under fire for being racist or sexist, POLITICO’s Samuel Benson reports. “I’ll tell you right now, that way you’ll never ask me again. I apologize for everything that I’ve ever joked about that offended anybody,” Pulido told Sam. “But I can’t continue to revisit every single one.”   Introducing Canberra Playbook POLITICO is coming to Australia. Canberra Playbook, our new daily briefing on the people and power shaping federal politics, launches 17 August. Free, daily, in your inbox before Canberra's day starts. Subscribe free.     TALK OF THE TOWN FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Public First Action, the policy group of AI safety super PAC Public First, removed Rep. Max Miller’s (R-Ohio) name from the list on its website of Republicans it is backing in the midterms amid allegations of domestic abuse made by his ex-wife, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman reports. The group, which Anthropic has given $40 million, listed Miller as one of 12 members it was supporting in a July press release, the online version of which no longer includes his name. Public First Action and Anthropic didn’t respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Miller declined to comment. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “National Gallery studied whether Freedom 250 IndyCar vibrations will affect art,” by WaPo’s Sophia Solano and colleagues: “When the Freedom 250 Grand Prix kicks off this month as part of President Donald Trump’s summer celebrations, IndyCar racers will weave at speeds up to 185 mph among federal buildings … One of those institutions, the National Gallery of Art, has studied vibrations ahead of the race as it prepares for possible effects on its art — but it’s declining to say what it found.” WHAT TRUMP IS READING — “Infantino Survives as FIFA President After Emergency Meeting,” by WSJ’s Joshua Robinson: “In a stunning reversal, FIFA announced that its top executives had fallen into line behind [Gianni Infantino] and ‘reaffirmed their full support’ for him … But if FIFA went to great lengths to show that it had quelled the rebellion from inside its own administration, Infantino’s position isn’t safe yet. What will actually decide his future are FIFA’s 211 member associations, who have loudly criticized him ever since news of the FFE project leaked out.” TRANSITIONS — Benny Stanislawski is now comms director for Bob Brooks’ Pennsylvania congressional campaign. He previously worked for Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.). … Kyla Anderson is now legislative representative on NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s federal affairs team. She is a Hill and CHCI alum. … Tom Kahn has been named director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. He previously served in an acting capacity, and previously spent two decades on the Hill. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rebecca Slaughter … WaPo’s Dan Diamond … Russ Anello of Co-Equal … David Maraniss … Axios’ Neil Irwin … Erin Karriker … Jonathan Riskind … K2 Space’s Corey Jacobson … Jill Farrell of Judicial Watch … Mike Melia … Steptoe’s Elizabeth Burks … Doug Stafford … Marta Hernandez … NASA’s Tom Brandt … Andrew Eisenberger … Amanda Brown Lierman … Adjoa Adofo Kyerematen … L.A. Times’ Ben Wieder … Lindsay Bednar … Viktoria Seale … POLITICO’s James Bikales … Melissa Beaumont Boedigheimer … Klon Kitchen … National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine’s Nicole Cohen … former Rep. Parker Griffith (R-Ala.) … NSA’s Nathan Baca … Democratic strategist Jeff Person … Everytown’s Morandon Henry … Allyson Gale … former EPA Administrator Michael Regan … Malika Saada Saar … former VA Secretary Robert Wilkie … Ashley MacLeay … North Carolina state Senate Democratic Whip Jay Chaudhuri … Rem Rieder … The Baltimore Banner’s Julie Bykowicz … EEOC’s Stacia Smith … Newsmax’s Krysia Lenzo and Pat Reap  Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.   Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners.     Follow us on X Adam Wren @adamwren Dasha Burns @DashaBurns Will Steakin @wsteaks   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Canada Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook  |  Playbook Paris  |  Berlin Playbook  |  Madrid Playbook  |  Canberra Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us