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By Adam Wren, Dasha Burns and Will Steakin |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Monday morning. After spending some days in Maine, the political press corps will travel to Michigan down the homestretch before the big Aug. 4 primary. Try a Vernors, and get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Abdul El-Sayed is taking no prisoners in Michigan or elsewhere with an eye toward 2028. — Lindsey Graham’s last act brings Benjamin Netanyahu and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to D.C. — The Boldfaces: Haley Stevens, John Fetterman, Hasan Piker, Summer Lee, Mike Rogers, Jay Clayton, Troy Jackson, Todd Blanche, Anthony Fauci, Pete Buttigieg, and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Abdul El-Sayed has a frank private assessment of what victory in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary over Rep. Haley Stevens would mean. During a recent Zoom donor meeting, El-Sayed indicated that a win in the Aug. 4 contest — and another one in November — would give him a platform to push the progressive movement forward. “You put one ogre on a pike, and then everyone else gets the message, and all of a sudden starts to sound a lot different,” El-Sayed said, according to audio of the meeting obtained by Playbook. El-Sayed was responding to a supporter, who asked how he planned to use his “voice at a time when, unfortunately, we're not going to get any policy over the finish line,” referring to the final two years of the Trump administration. In his response, El-Sayed framed the race, which has seen a historic level of spending by AIPAC’s political arm, as one of biblical stakes: He likened himself to David and the forces that have lined up against him to Goliath. “I need to use the platform that I have, and frankly, AIPAC and all the other corporations are going to give me if I win this race,” El-Sayed said. “What they don't really realize is that in spending so much money, they're turning me into David, right? So, like, if I'm the guy who came through and beat Goliath, now all of a sudden you just gave me the best platform in the entire U.S. Senate, which I love because then guess where all eyes are going to be?” The discussion revealed how he views his race as the left’s most consequential stand in the midterms and its implications for 2028 — especially as a newly crowned early 2028 presidential primary state. “Michigan is going to be, what state number five — first big swing state on the whole map. I love that for us, which means that I get to then start paving the pathway for 2028 and who will be the next president,” he said. “What I'm trying to do in this race right now … is to offer compelling ways or offer sort of memes that people can pick up who are running for president to sound like we need them to sound.” And he wasn’t speaking purely conceptually. El-Sayed talked about “organizing downward and outward” as part of a larger progressive project with national implications — and targets. “A big pickup for us could be that John Fetterman seat,” El-Sayed said, referring to the Democratic senator up for reelection in 2028. (Earlier this year at a rally with the far-left Twitch streamer Hasan Piker and Pennsylvania Rep. Summer Lee, El-Sayed floated the idea of Lee primarying Fetterman.) “They're gonna f around and give me carte blanche to go take them out. Like that's the best thing about the way they're doing this is if I win … ‘Well, y'all came at me, so now I get to come at you.’ And you know, primarying people like John Fetterman, I have no problem to do that. Like I'm looking forward to it. And people are like, ‘We don’t primary the Senate.’ I’m like: watch me do it. Tell me why I should stop.”
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A message from Anthropic: Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team
Running a restaurant means financial pressure and moving parts. At Shy Bird, owner Eli Feldman uses Claude to help solve problems from kitchen organization to manager coaching, so he can give more to the people who make the restaurant run. Learn more. |
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El-Sayed summed up his stance as more of a winner-take-all champion than a big-tent coalition builder. “You're gonna spend $60 million to beat me — OK, two can play at that game,” he said. “And then what happens is, ideally, you put one ogre on a pike, and then everyone else gets the message, and all of a sudden starts to sound a lot different.” He did not specifically mention Stevens in the portion of the call reviewed by Playbook. “Abdul was clearly speaking metaphorically about the fact that he fully intends to support a primary against John Fetterman, who despite being elected to support the values Abdul fights for has sold out his voters and votes with Trump more than any other Democrat,” an El-Sayed spokesperson told us of the call. Ninety-nine days before the midterms and eight days before its own primary, Michigan is now the political epicenter of national politics. El-Sayed and Stevens will face off in the final Democratic Senate debate in Michigan at 7:30 p.m. on FOX 2 Detroit. They also come as President Donald Trump visits Michigan today, heading to a General Motors‘ Milford Proving Ground facility in Milford, where he’ll deliver remarks this afternoon. Mike Rogers, who’s cruising blissfully through Aug. 4 as the Democrats rip each other to shreds, is expected to speak at the event, according to two people familiar with the logistics. Rogers is also expected to frame the election as one of “crazy vs. common sense.” (This one’s for you, Lisa McClain!) On today’s Playbook Podcast: POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Jordain Carney set up the stakes for Republicans in the Senate, where the pressure is on to move their next big legislative swing alongside several Trump nominees to fill critical Cabinet posts.
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A message from Anthropic: 
Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team
Running a restaurant comes with pressure. At Shy Bird, Claude helps Eli Feldman do more for his team. Learn more. |
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY: Tomorrow’s funeral for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will bring major world figures to Washington. It’ll also tee up White House meetings for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, both looking to shore up support after losing one of their highest-profile backers in D.C. But Netanyahu will arrive as his relationship with Trump grows tense amid the Iran war: Bibi’s been trying to get an invite for the past three months, POLITICO’s Felicia Schwartz reports this morning. ON THE HILL: The Senate will take up Jay Clayton’s nomination to be DNI with a procedural vote at 5:30 p.m. With Clayton’s impending arrival, acting DNI Bill Pulte is hard at work firing staffers during his brief tenure: He announced last night the fourth round of layoffs had concluded.
- It’s a busy week in the Senate, as Majority Leader John Thune tries to make progress on government funding and Russia sanctions bills, while the hard right keeps making demands for the SAVE America Act. Plus: a Senate Judiciary vote on Todd Blanche for AG, Senate HELP votes on Keith Sonderling for Labor secretary and Erica Schwartz for CDC director, and another round of Anthony Fauci vs. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
FED UP: The outcomes of many Fed meetings are foregone conclusions. Not so this week, when the central bank faces at least some genuine suspense over whether it’ll hold interest rates steady or — cue the Truth Social outburst — raise them on wartime inflation concerns. It’s a tricky decision for new Chair Kevin Warsh; don’t be surprised by dissents Wednesday. Thursday will also bring some closely watched economic data: the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation metric) and the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP. More from Bloomberg DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: With an eye toward China, the U.S. and more than 20 allies today are launching a joint effort to speed up 6G development, POLITICO’s John Hendel scoops.
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A message from Anthropic: 
How a Boston restaurant owner uses Claude to help support his team |
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ad it up: The pro-Susan Collins Pine Tree Results PAC is putting seven figures behind its first ad hammering new Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson in Maine, Adam scoops. The strategy is all about Graham Platner, hammering Jackson for supporting the former nominee through previous scandals: “another phony we can’t trust,” the ad warns of Jackson. Expect the messaging linking Jackson to Platner to become a mainstay of the GOP’s attack plans in Maine, as Playbook scooped yesterday. Watch the ad here — Phony is also the general idea in Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s latest six-figure ad campaign against Rep. Angie Craig in the Democratic Senate primary, Playbook’s Eli Okun scoops. The spot slams Craig for her votes on cryptocurrency and immigration bills, tying her to Trump and saying “Minnesota deserves a real fighter and a real Democrat.” Watch it here SURVEY SAYS: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is the centerpiece of Republicans’ midterm pitch — but about half the country knows little about it, Bernie Becker reports from the latest POLITICO Poll results. Worse for the GOP, of those in the know, more Americans say it has hurt them and helped the wealthy than vice versa. Just a quarter of Trump voters think the law provided substantial tax breaks to the working class. And as he hit the campaign trail in Pennsylvania yesterday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries doubled down on affordability as Democrats’ top messaging cudgel, POLITICO’s Riley Rogerson reports from Bethlehem. BRAVE NEW WORLD: Reps. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) and Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) are still scrambling to try to get an AI regulatory framework passed through Congress, having now introduced a revamped version of an initial bill that fell flat on the left and right, POLITICO’s Kelsey Brugger reports. The bipartisan pair is optimistic for pre-midterms action, but the legislation faces steep hurdles — raising the prospect that Congress will fail to put any guardrails around AI.
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A message from Anthropic: Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team
Running a restaurant means financial pressure and moving parts. At Shy Bird, owner Eli Feldman uses Claude to help solve problems from kitchen organization to manager coaching, so he can give more to the people who make the restaurant run. Learn more. |
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. WAR REPORT: The Iran war took a turn this weekend as two days’ respite from violence followed two weeks of escalation. Will the pause hold? Trump’s decision to hold off on further attacks was recommended by top U.S. military commander Adm. Brad Cooper, among others, per Axios’ Barak Ravid. And a senior Iranian official told Reuters’ Parisa Hafezi and colleagues they’ll stay quiet as long as the U.S. does. Regional mediators trying to get the U.S. and Iran back to a ceasefire told AP’s Ben Finley and colleagues they hope to use this moment to make progress on talks. But Trump personally seems more inclined toward saber-rattling: He spent part of the day posting AI-generated war images on Truth Social.
- The fallout: Oil prices ebbed a bit thanks to the war’s standstill. And back home, the latest CBS poll finds Americans largely feeling uncertain and frustrated about the war.
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Now read this:
“As Bombs Fall in Iran, Trump Bombs in Washington,” by POLITICO’s John Harris: “In its own way, [Trump’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner] performance and tepid response in the room of journalists and Washington personages may have underlined how Trump and Trumpism are entering the twilight hours.”
2. THE NEXT DEPORTATION DRIVE: Now that the Supreme Court has greenlit DHS’ move to end Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of Haitians, ICE is planning for a new “arrest and deportation blitz” as the high court’s legal mandate comes down today, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez scooped. ICE wants to go after Haitians in Ohio and elsewhere, as soon as this week, and send them back to a country wracked with strife. The prospect has sent fear rippling through Haitian communities — and could yield labor shortages as TPS expires for people from other countries too, NYT’s Miriam Jordan and Madeleine Ngo report. 3. STATE OF THE MIDTERMS: It’s 99 days to go until Nov. 3. Despite Republican gerrymanders, this year’s House map is actually roughly as favorable to the GOP as 2018’s — or perhaps even a little less, Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik writes in a new analysis out this morning. The number of plausible Democratic targets is roughly comparable to that previous midterm wave year. Meanwhile, Republicans are worried about a significant portion of their base turning unenthused about the midterms, particularly due to economic concerns, WaPo’s Liz Goodwin and Ben Binday report. But the NRSC’s messaging is seeking no daylight from Trump. 4. HOW IT HAPPENED: The episode that separated Pete Buttigieg from his twin children in Michigan last month “relied on a vague and unsubstantiated allegation from an accuser authorities later deemed possibly ‘mentally unstable,’ according to previously unreported police records,” WaPo’s Olivia George and colleagues report. “Child welfare experts who reviewed the documents at The Post’s request said they illuminate a flawed process that was made worse by poor judgment by agencies and a lack of communication among investigators from two states.” 5. THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN: “From TV Doctor to Power Broker: Dr. Oz Thrives on Trump’s Team,” by Bloomberg’s Rachel Cohrs Zhang: Mehmet Oz “has cultivated not only a close relationship with President Donald Trump, but a reputation as a surprisingly serious operator … As a result, there’s a growing perception that the 66-year-old administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has become the heir apparent to lead the health department if [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] departs.”
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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TOP TALKER — The latest dive into the DNC’s financial and organizational woes comes from NOTUS’ Elena Schneider and Jasmine Wright, who revealed that the Democrats put up their headquarters as collateral to get a line of credit for election investments. But the DNC said it has also done so to get loans in multiple previous years. SPORTS BLINK — The Freedom 250 Grand Prix will come to Washington next month — an IndyCar race that required navigating tricky political, bureaucratic and security tangles for Bud Denker to pull off, CNN’s Isabelle Khurshudyan and Aleena Fayaz detail. Cars will end up going 175 mph on Pennsylvania Avenue, and a two-month construction build-up and take-down is beginning imminently in the heart of downtown D.C. “I want the entire city, I want all of Congress to be part of this event,” Denker says. TRANSITIONS — Misha Linnehan is now the Maine Democratic Party’s senior comms adviser for the Senate race. He most recently worked for Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), and is a Bob Casey and Janet Mills alum. … Jamaal Mobley is now senior director for public affairs for America’s Credit Unions. He previously worked at H/Advisors Abernathy, and is a T. Rowe Price and Charles Schwab alum. ENGAGED — Daniella Diaz, politics reporter at NOTUS and a POLITICO alum, and Alexander Andresian, trial attorney at the Justice Department Antitrust Division, got engaged Friday. He proposed on their balcony before dinner at her favorite restaurant, Izakaya Seki, and then surprised her with a party at Franklin Hall with all their friends. The two met on Hinge two years ago, bonding over their shared love of Bad Bunny, after she almost (unintentionally) ghosted him when they first started talking. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Glenn “G.T.” Thompson (R-Pa.) … Johanna Persing … Live Action’s Lila Rose … Sean Savett … Priscilla Painton of Simon & Schuster … Katie Wheelbarger … Alex Wirth of Quorum … Andy Spahn … Paul McLeod … Cecilia Muñoz … retired Adm. Craig Faller … Jeremy Adler … Prime Policy Group’s Stefan Bailey … John Connell of Google … Linda Feldmann … Gaurav Parikh … Bobby Cunningham of the Vogel Group … Bobby Saparow … Jeremy Deutsch of Capitol Venture … Anna McCormack of Rep. David Rouzer’s (R-N.C.) office … Juan Mejia … former Reps. Dave Brat (R-Va.) and Lacy Clay (D-Mo.) … Ashley Gonzalez … former Commerce Secretary Don Evans … CNN’s Susan Durrwachter … former CIA Director John Deutch … Seth Waugh … Kate Thompson of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association … Air Force’s Charlie McKell … Susan Phalen … Nicholas Anastácio of National Journal … Andrew Grossman … POLITICO’s Brian Tran-Dac … Denis Horgan Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. |
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