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By Dasha Burns, Will Steakin and Adam Wren |
Presented by Kalshi |
With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Thursday morning. It’s Halloween at the White House today, but that’s not exactly the source of Washington’s fears. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Moderate Democrats put the Bloc on notice. — Elon Musk’s donation spree has revived Texas Republicans’ hopes. — The Boldfaces: Brad Schneider, Greg Stanton, Melat Kiros, Darializa Avila Chevalier, Hakeem Jeffries, Darline Graham, Donald Trump Jr., Suzan DelBene, Elon Musk, Lisa Murkowski, Vivek Ramaswamy, Haley Stevens and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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The fight over who will call the shots in a potential Democratic House majority is already underway, and the leaders of their largest ideological caucus are delivering a reality check. New Democrat Coalition Chair Brad Schneider (Ill.) and NewDem Action Fund Chair Greg Stanton (Ariz.) told Playbook that moderates expect to deliver the majority, and they don’t intend to let a handful of insurgents on their left flank dictate its agenda. “Our friends who are DSA, when they won in the primaries, of course those were blue-to-blue,” Stanton said. “They didn’t win a new seat for our caucus.” Melat Kiros (Colo.) and Darializa Avila Chevalier (N.Y.) — who expect to help drive the Bloc of far-left lawmakers leveraging their votes for a progressive agenda including Medicare for All and changes to U.S. policy toward Israel — wouldn’t commit to backing Hakeem Jeffries for speaker on a recent episode of “The Conversation.” Schneider’s coalition, which he says could grow as large as 150 members this cycle (it’s currently 114), is already taking a defensive posture around Jeffries. “If you’re saying that you’ll only support him because of this particular vote or that particular vote, I think that really undercuts him,” Stanton said, while Schneider acknowledged that a narrow majority could give the Bloc outsized leverage. “If you’re at 217, each person becomes a kingmaker,” Schneider said. Whatever the margins, they weren’t shy about suggesting who should wield power from committees on up. “If you want to see progressives have gavels, to actually be chairs of committees … winning the seats that it's gonna take to win the majority, that’s coming from the New Dems.” The New Dems warned against forcing “dumb votes” that could hurt vulnerable members “before we have the White House” and while they “have to defend a majority in 2028.” Schneider dismissed progressives’ Medicare for All pitch as a “slogan,” not a “solution,” was wary of DSA members’ push for an arms embargo on Israel and said transgender rights “is not the number one issue.” “A lot of these people are coming in with their minds locked, their positions frozen,” Schneider said. “We should stop talking about ideology and talking about results.” He continued: “Put your damn oar in the water and let’s start rowing forward.” FACTION CONTROL: Competing wings of the House Democratic Caucus are already jockeying for authority behind the scenes as both progressive and moderate coalitions argue that any midterm gains will serve as proof their side should be the 2028 standard-bearer, POLITICO’s Riley Rogerson and Mia McCarthy report. Precisely how moderates plan to neutralize the party’s left flank remains a topic of live discussion among members and aides, who say a specific plan will depend on the outcome of the midterms. On today’s Playbook Podcast: Will and Megan Messerly discuss how New Dems have no intention of letting left-wing insurgents call the shots. Plus, the NYT’s report of the remarkable plot to recruit the other Dan Sullivan in Alaska, FlΓ‘vio Bolsonaro arrives stateside and Hasan Piker hits Scott Jennings with a defamation suit. Listen and subscribe
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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ON THE ROAD: Trump is heading to Rock Hill, South Carolina, to speak at a midterms event at 12:30 p.m. — and not a moment too soon as polls put Democrat Annie Andrews and GOP Sen. Darline Graham in a dead heat. He’ll then head back to the White House for a totally different event to commemorate the season: Halloween with first lady Melania Trump.
- Veep watch: VP JD Vance is heading to Weatherford, Texas, just days after Trump’s (and national security adviser Marco Rubio’s) own Texas swing. He’s speaking at a rally at 1:15 p.m.
- The younger Trump: Donald Trump Jr. is joining GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Byron Donalds and his running mate, Bryan Avila, for a rally in Hialeah, the heart of south Florida’s Cuban community, per Florida’s Voice News.
FIRST IN POLITICO: DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) will kick off her final campaign sprint tomorrow, embarking on a swing through crucial Northeastern House districts. She’ll stump with Cait Conley in New York tomorrow and Saturday, Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey on Saturday, Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania on Saturday and Sunday, Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania on Sunday and Bob Harvie in Pennsylvania on Monday. EVERY POWER CENTER. ONE NEW APP: The new POLITICO app has arrived, bringing the full breadth of our journalism and professional intelligence together for the first time. As the U.S. midterms approach and consequential elections loom around the world, follow how decisions in one country shape politics and policy in another. Get personalized coverage from across our geographies, plus Playbooks, podcasts, live reporting and the best of our POLITICO Pro intelligence. Download here
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
Kalshi — the American exchange. Free markets. Fair markets. Transparent markets.
Learn more. |
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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‘A THREAT TO AMERICA’: The attacks on Democrat Abdul El-Sayed branding him as an extremist are only growing in the final stretch of the increasingly tense Michigan Senate race. It’s sparked concerns that the message could resonate with late-breaking undecided voters, and has started to alienate some of the GOP’s Muslim and Arab allies in the state, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Samuel Benson report. WHAT WALL STREET IS WATCHING: A Democratic Senate or House could bring some unexpected opportunities for big banks. They could find allies in California Rep. Maxine Waters (who could lead House Finance) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (who could lead Senate Banking), in the push to restrict crypto companies and create more regulations for AI — despite years spent as megabank antagonists, POLITICO’s Aiden Reiter writes.
- The flip side: Tech companies, crypto and industrial giants are scrambling to get ahead of possible Democratic oversight, hiring lobbyists and crisis comms experts, POLITICO’s Oliver Ward and Daniel Barnes report. The panic is particularly hitting companies that donated to Trump’s pet projects, including the White House ballroom.
- Warren’s piece: The Massachusetts Democrat is eyeing a move within the Senate Democratic leadership team after the midterms, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. Warren, who’s currently in the No. 5 spot, “will take a close look at Senate leadership opportunities, including the No. 3 slot,” according to a person with knowledge of her thinking who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
DEEP IN THE HEART: Despite Republican redistricting to tilt the Texas map in their favor, multiple races remain competitive. But some in the party are seeing at least one big payoff in the final stretch: Elon Musk’s war chest. “I feel much better than I did six weeks ago,” a Texas House Republican told POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy. “The Musk money has helped with turnout in the state.” That goes for some races that have moved in Democrats’ favor, like GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas’ 15th. “I thought she was gonna lose,” they said. “But Elon has really come in.”
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Special Coverage of Milken’s Future of Health Summit POLITICO’s Pulse will bring you special coverage from the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit, Nov. 11–13, in Washington, D.C. Follow reporting on the ideas, innovations and policy decisions shaping the future of health. Sign up for Pulseto follow the Summit. |
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. MY FRIEND BIBI: Israel’s election deadlock has dashed hopes in Washington for a quick reset of the U.S.-Israel relationship — an alliance that has frayed across party lines during PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s long tenure, POLITICO’s Daniella Cheslow reports. Factions in the administration and both parties in Congress had hoped the Israeli opposition would prevail and begin to undo years of worsening relations they attribute to Netanyahu. “There is Netanyahu fatigue here,” a former Trump administration official said.
2. BRAVE NEW WORLD: Democrats across the country are pushing for increased guardrails on Big Tech, from AI to data center development. But nowhere is that message more front and center than in Michigan, where progressive Democrat William Lawrence has gone in on Big Tech backlash to try and unseat GOP Rep. Tom Barrett, POLITICO’s Owen Dahlkamp reports. 3. THE LAST FRONTIER: Trump called for Democrat Mary Peltola to be removed from the ballot for the state’s Senate race following an NYT report linking her campaign to a covert effort to pull votes away from incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. It also earned a warning from GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who’s backed Peltola in the past. “Alaskans deserve the honest truth from Mary and her campaign,” Murkowski said. More from POLITICO’s Jalen Beckford
- Meanwhile: Murkowski endorsed the Democrat running for governor in her state, her latest break with her party and a move that some wonder might be a signal she could retire in 2028 instead of seeking reelection. But it’s not quite enough to read any tea leaves, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and colleagues report. “It’s certainly no surprise. Lisa is Lisa,” GOP operative Art Hackney said.
4. AD IT UP: Republicans are worrying Vivek Ramaswamy’s controversial spot against Amy Acton in the Ohio gubernatorial race will wind up costing them. A new internal poll shows Ramaswamy behind Acton by 8 points, a notable change since the ad was released, Axios’ Alex Isenstadt scoops. The polling memo warns the ad is “having a significant effect.” 5. ELECTION SECURITY WATCH: Some FBI agents are quietly raising red flags that they may be ordered to seize voting machines or make other interventions in the midterms, MS NOW’s Ken Dilanian and Carol Leonnig report. “We have all the evidence we need to expect at least one U.S. attorney and one FBI agent to be willing to sign on to such actions, such as Georgia and Arizona,” one FBI official told MS NOW.
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A message from Kalshi: 
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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SPLIT DECISION — After Jason Turkish, the fiancé of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), indicated he would buck his betrothed’s party and vote for Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race, Stevens went on CNN last night to weigh in — with many Democrats holding their breath for what she might say about El-Sayed, whom she’s kept at a certain distance since their bruising primary. “We’re a household divided,” Stevens said. “I still very much want our Democratic nominee, his name is Abdul, to win this race.” But she also pleaded with El-Sayed to “shut out the hate” and denounce antisemitism to “make people in my coalition feel comfortable.” HITTING INTO THE HAZARD — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is pushing back on Trump’s plan to redo another golf course near the nation’s capital — this one on top of a Superfund site at Joint Base Andrews, POLITICO’s Annie Snider and Debra Kahn report. The Democrat’s top environmental regulator sent a frustrated letter to the base’s commander raising “serious concerns” about contaminated runoff from the project that could affect nearby neighborhoods. An Air Force spokesperson said the renovation is not occurring near the major creek that runs through the base and that polluted soil from the Superfund site is not being disturbed. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — American Compass is rolling out its first class of distinguished fellows, including some prominent alums of the Trump administrations. The group comprises former deputy national security adviser Andy Baker; Julius Krein, editor of American Affairs and president of the New American Industrial Alliance; former USTR Robert Lighthizer; former Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran; former VP chief of staff Jacob Reses; former AG Jeff Sessions; former Assistant AG Gail Slater and former acting Council of Economic Advisers Chair Pierre Yared. The organization is also adding Johnny Burtka as editorial director and philanthropy chair. OUT AND ABOUT — Washington journalists gathered at Ambar to celebrate NBC News correspondent Tom Costello and his new PBS documentary, “The First: Free Speech at the Crossroads.” The reception was hosted by PBS NewsHour co-anchor Geoff Bennett. SPOTTED: Hallie Jackson, Gabe Gutierrez, Pete Williams, Barbara Starr, Ken Dilanian, Courtney Kube, Julie Tsirkin, Frank Thorp, Gary Grumbach, Mike Goldrick, Chloe Arensberg, Stacey Klein, Jackie Bradford, Doug Adams, Jay Blackman, Mike Kosnar, Scott Foster, Winston Wilde, David Gardner, Matt Speiser, Elaine Speiser, Brian Malone, Cindy Malone and Robin Gradison. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — John Sakellariadis, a cybersecurity and intelligence reporter at POLITICO, and Carly Hillman, a TV producer and author, welcomed Daphne Jocelyn Sakellariadis on Tuesday in Philadelphia. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker … Kat Timpf … NBC’s Laura Jarrett … Kate Bedingfield … former HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge … Jim Messina … MS NOW’s Ali Velshi, Rebeka Dryden and David Siegel … Punchbowl’s Dave Clarke … Vox’s Steve Heuser … Robert George … Jamie McIntyre … Geoff Turley … Isabelle James … Mike Saccone … Bob Stevenson … Natalie Jones Hallahan of the Meridian International Center … WSJ’s Kate Bachelder Odell … David Corvo … Daisy Gordon … Justin McCartney … Laura Kupe … CNN’s Avery Miller … former Sen. Connie Mack III (R-Fla.) … Peter Albrecht … Aaron Jacobs … Ryan Quinn … Anthony Pardal of the American Bankers Association … Dimitri Simes … Mimi Montgomery … Amalia Corby … Nelson Cunningham … Mara Mellstrom Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord.
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
Kalshi — the American exchange. Free markets. Fair markets. Transparent markets.
Learn more. |
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