Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: Republicans fall back to the red wall

Republicans fall back to the red wall

Oct 19, 2026

By Adam Wren, Dasha Burns and Will Steakin

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner

Good Monday morning. T-minus 15 days until Election Day, and they’re literally taking it to the streets. Hang in there and let us know how you’re holding up.

In today’s Playbook …

— Ohio returns to the map as an election night bellwether.

— Donald Trump launches a seven-state blitz in seven days.

— The Boldfaces: Sherrod Brown, Jon Husted, Chris Gustafson, Ashley Hinson, Josh Turek, Tim Ryan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jake Johnson, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Pete Hegseth, Tom Barrack, Rupert Murdoch and more.

DRIVING THE DAY

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Republicans are racing to shore up their red wall as it starts to crumble.

In the states that propelled Donald Trump and his MAGA movement to power a decade ago, the GOP is staring down close races all over the map and bracing for the worst.

Nowhere is this more on display than in the backyard of the Republican Party’s heir apparent, VP JD Vance, and its potential future NRSC Chair Bernie Moreno. Even with its diminutive size relative to Texas, it’s drawn outsized spending: The Senate special election hit more than $466 million, behind Texas at more than $520 million, according to AdImpact.

“Ohio is going to be your bellwether of what kind of night it is,” a senior MAGA-aligned strategist told Playbook. “I think — I do truly think — as Ohio goes, the Senate goes right now.”

In a sign of how pitched the battle for Ohio is, crypto super PAC Defend American Jobs upped its spending: After promising to sink at least $30 million into the race in September to defeat former Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown, the crypto-skeptical Democrat running against incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted, the Fairshake-affiliated PAC’s spending adds up to more than $45 million, according to AdImpact.

The GOP Ohio rescue mission has been on for weeks. The White House will embark on its fourth visit in recent weeks, dispatching Vance to Cincinnati and marking two visits each for Trump and his VP during the midterms sprint.

A second GOP strategist close to the White House, granted anonymity to candidly describe the party’s state of affairs, called it a “nail-biter,” but suggested Republicans’ position improved over the last three to four weeks because “recent rallies from Trump and Vance have woken up the base.”

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Much of the GOP’s consternation centers on Husted, who Republicans close to the White House privately pilloried for months as a lackluster candidate. While Trump praised his physical attributes at rallies, aligned strategists are less certain about the former college football player’s political athleticism.

“Jon Husted looks like a quarterback, he talks like a quarterback, but he acts like a waterboy,” said a national GOP strategist who worked with the candidate. Added the first MAGA-aligned strategist: “When the story is written on this campaign cycle, Sherrod Brown will have run the best race in the country. Jon Husted may have run the worst campaign in the country.”

Husted acknowledged his campaign, which didn’t respond to a request for comment, has been an uphill battle.

“Serious Republicans trying to win elections aren’t talking anonymously to Playbook 15 days before the election,” said Chris Gustafson, comms director for Senate Leadership Fund.

Iowa Republicans are also facing problems down the home stretch, though insiders believe GOP Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson is trending in the right direction in her battle with Democrat Josh Turek.

The RNC and Hinson campaign upped their coordinated buy to $4.1 million. A person familiar told Playbook it’s likely to top out at $5 million, as both sides gauge whether Democrat Rob Sand’s promising gubernatorial campaign can pull Turek across the finish line.

“I think the congressionals and the governor’s race are f---ed,” the first GOP strategist added.

Back in Ohio, Democrats aren’t spiking the football yet.

“Democrats have to be up 5, 6 points to win because the state historically has closed Republican,” former Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, who lost to Vance in 2022, told Playbook.

What could make this year different?

“I just don’t know if you can underestimate the fact that people are really struggling,” Ryan said. “There’s a good deal of the president’s supporters that are pretty disappointed, feeling betrayed and lied to.”

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Adam and Dasha discuss Ohio’s return to the center of the map, plus Abdul El-Sayed’s viral response to Muslim Brotherhood questions and James Talarico’s celebrity allies. Listen and subscribe on Apple of Spotify

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THE DOWNLOAD

ON THE ROAD: Trump is due to sign an executive order with first lady Melania Trump in the Rose Garden at 11 a.m., then it’s back to the red-state campaign trail as he heads to a rally in Wichita, Kansas, at 7 p.m. Eastern — the first of seven important stops in the next seven days.

The Cabinet fans out: Vance is slated to speak in Hendersonville, North Carolina, at 1:15 p.m. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright will be in Dover Plains, New York, for an energy infrastructure event with Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.).
Coming Friday: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) will head to California for a get-out-the-vote rally with Randy Villegas, according to plans shared first with Playbook. It’s a crucial district in multiple ways, full of young, working-class Latinos whom Villegas needs to turn out to flip a purple seat. And it’s a prominent test of whether the left can win beyond deep-blue cities.

UP FOR DEBATE: The next high-profile smattering of debates will arrive Wednesday, when Senate candidates in Kansas and Michigan, plus Iowa’s gubernatorial contenders, square off. The Michigan debate comes as Trump and Mike Rogers spent the weekend increasingly trying to tie El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood despite his disavowal of the group, The Detroit News’ Beth LeBlanc reports. The matter has grabbed the attention of Bari Weiss, who is pushing CBS News to try to find a potential link, Semafor’s Max Tani reports.

IMMIGRATION FILES: Roughly 100,000 Ukrainians and Sudanese were set to lose Temporary Protected Status upon today’s deadline, but the administration temporarily backed off yesterday, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez scooped. DHS’ postponement of a final decision allows the legal immigrants to keep working in the U.S. without being deported — the second such softening from the Trump administration, which did the same for Salvadorans with TPS last month. To understand how uncharacteristic this is, read NYT’s Albert Sun on how the administration slashed legal immigration this year to half its pre-Trump levels.

Shaping American Influence

From the Meridian Summit to the Meridian Ball, a look back at two signature moments that brought leaders together to discuss American influence and celebrate diplomacy.

THE FRONT PAGE

THE MONEY GAME: Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) reelection bid looks so strong that neither party’s top Senate super PAC was on the airwaves in Georgia last week, and at least the Democrats will stay dark this week too, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Erin Doherty scoop. A MAGA Inc.-tied group has also gone much quieter, despite Trump’s visit Friday.

Where Senate Majority PAC’s not as confident: The Chuck Schumer-aligned group will announce today it plans to add $1 million to its ongoing reservations in Michigan to bolster El-Sayed’s campaign, Playbook has learned. It’s currently on air statewide tying Rogers to Big Pharma and prescription drug prices.
On the topic of health: The DCCC is up with its first coordinated spending ad for Jake Johnson as he looks to flip a Trump +12 seat in Minnesota’s 1st District, home of the Mayo Clinic. The new six-figure spot attacks GOP Rep. Brad Finstad over a series of health care votes.

KNIVES OUT: A bad midterm isn’t yet a sure thing, but the preemptive blame game has already begun among Republicans. It’s the war! It’s the NRCC! It’s Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall! It’s Karl Rove! From the White House to Hill veterans to party committees to candidates, everybody is ready to point the finger at each other, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill, Andrew Howard, Adam and Mia McCarthy report. And plenty of Republicans are frustrated that Trump keeps stepping on their closing message with all manner of distractions, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Alex Gangitano report.

BRAVE NEW WORLD: It’s not just that Congress has been asleep at the wheel in passing AI regulations: On a more fundamental dimension, some say the Hill seriously needs to expand its level of technology policy expertise — not only at the member level, which is a very steep hill, but at the staff level too, POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus reports. It’s hard for the government to compete with more attractive salaries in the tech industry.

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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. TO RUSSIA, WITH LOVE: In the wake of Trump’s sharp pro-Russia turn, the Ukraine war combatants are scrambling to keep up. Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested an unprecedented November summit with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping — but not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — to discuss Ukraine, WSJ’s Lingling Wei and colleagues scooped. Zelenskyy told Bloomberg Trump is trying to push Ukraine into surrender, and he offered to stop hitting Russian refineries if the U.S. provides Patriot missiles. Trump foisted all the blame for Russia’s war on Zelenskyy, while saying he’s trying to negotiate peace.

Zelenskyy did talk with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner yesterday, per Axios’ Barak Ravid, opening the door to an in-person meeting soon. But as Trump opts for diesel deal-making with Russia instead of sanctions, Zelenskyy decided last week it was finally time to fight back against Washington, WSJ’s Marcus Walker and Robbie Gramer report.

2. DEMOCRACY WATCH: Election administrators around the country have an extra concern to worry about this year — grappling with the federal government, POLITICO’s Dana Nickel reports. Many state and local officials say DHS and DOJ have broken trust in what is typically a partnership. DHS’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is a particular concern for some, report ProPublica’s Andy Mannix and Doug Bock Clark: Last year, DHS leaders told CISA to get a voting machine in secret, hack it and then not tell its company if the agency found any flaws. (CISA staffers brushed back the political appointees.)

3. INSIDE OLC: DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel has played a crucial role in creating legal justifications for some of the administration’s most controversial augmentations of executive power. Its low-profile leader, T. Elliot Gaiser, could grow more prominent if Democrats retake Congress and smack into his expansion of executive privilege. But Gaiser told WaPo’s Perry Stein and Mark Berman the office hasn’t been afraid to privately push back on the White House.

4. LAWYERING UP: “The Race Is On for Trump Staffers to Hire Lawyers in Case Democrats Win Midterms,” by WSJ’s Lydia Wheeler and colleagues: “Potential clients are shopping for representation both at some of the nation’s top firms and at smaller conservative boutiques.”

5. THE MAHA AGENDA: Scottsdale has plenty of MAHA-minded Republicans, but some are wavering on the GOP as they feel betrayed on policy, NYT’s Sejal Govindarao reports from Arizona. GOP Rep. Andy Biggs has leaned into the movement in his gubernatorial campaign, but prominent local supporters say they’re a little burned by his party in Washington.

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TALK OF THE TOWN

TOP TALKER — As Kimberly Guilfoyle saw her future as U.S. ambassador to Greece imperiled, she called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack for help with Trump, the Daily Mail’s Elina Shirazi reports. She also called Rupert Murdoch to try to get damaging WSJ articles about her removed. But Murdoch held firm, and Trump didn’t pick up her calls.

FORE! — An epic showdown over Trump’s plan to turn a longtime community golf course on the Potomac into a national-level championship course is set to take place in federal court in D.C. this morning, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney write in.

U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes has ordered the Park Service’s acting chief Jessica Bowron to appear in person. Reyes also ordered DOJ’s No. 3 official, Stanley Woodward, to attend after he filed a motion Friday accusing her of “deep-seated” bias against the administration and asking her to recuse from a lawsuit challenging the renovation plan. The dispute appeared to accelerate Sunday, when Trump announced on Truth Social that he’s selected a design for the proposed course and that the current one will close to the public on Nov. 15.

Reyes formally rejected the recusal request, saying Woodward omitted key context from his claims. Rather, Reyes wrote, her acknowledged fury toward the government at a hearing last week stemmed from the decision to cut down more than 400 trees on the East Potomac Golf Links earlier this month with only about 15 hours notice, just before a holiday weekend. “The Government created an emergent situation. The Court responded,” Reyes wrote.

Reyes noted that before the chainsaw massacre she had rejected “nearly a dozen” requests to block large-scale tree removal at the site. Instead, she insisted that the government give the court advance notice of any significant action there. Reyes, a Biden appointee, also recited her repeated compliments for Justice Department lawyers handling the case and the strength and rigor of their arguments.

“With the facts in focus, the Court finds that no reasonable person could believe that after October 12 the Court exercised favoritism in a manner supporting disqualification,” wrote Reyes, who will consider at the hearing today whether to impose an injunction that could stymie Trump’s plans for the site. (Meanwhile, local residents are fuming about the course’s impending closure for more than a year, WaPo’s Joe Heim and Dan Merica report.)

OUT AND ABOUT — Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis received the Churchill Leadership Medal during the International Churchill Conference in Philadelphia on Saturday, with daytime events at the Union League Club and an evening gala at the Masonic Temple. SPOTTED: David Rubenstein, British Ambassador Christian Turner, Randolph Churchill, Davis Richardson, Barbi Richardson, Bill Kristol, Lee Pollock, Richard Breitman, John Cervini and Catherine Grace Katz.

— SPOTTED at the launch party yesterday for Cal Hoffman’s new novel, “Judah Can’t Tell” ($30), at Politics and Prose, with an after-party concert by Wicked Game at I’m Eddie Cano: Harry Lennix, Victoria Leacock Hoffman, Michael Isikoff, Aviva Kempner, Christina Sevilla and Steve Rochlin, Peter Cherukuri, Danielle Most, Jack Doll, Paris Huang, Jen Renteria, Matthew Gregory, Ruth Schipper, Carolyn Griffin, Pam Meyer, Amy Austin, Willee Lewis and Beth Myers.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Micah Bock is now assistant director for comms and deputy chief of staff at ICE. He most recently was principal deputy assistant secretary for comms at DHS.

— Will Ruger is now a distinguished fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He previously was deputy DNI for mission integration, where he was one of many top staffers purged by Bill Pulte, and is an American Institute for Economic Research and Stand Together alum.

MEDIA MOVE — Reagan Reese will be national political reporter at the Daily Signal. She previously worked at the Daily Caller.

ENGAGED — Olivia Beavers, a congressional reporter for the WSJ and a POLITICO alum, and Bryan Gilday, a Treasury Department employee, got engaged recently. Bryan proposed on top of a mountain ridge in a remote part of the Italian Dolomites with no other eyes around, after strongly underestimating the difficulty of the hike up. They met at Calico on bingo night in February 2024. Pic, via Ana Angelica Rufina Pereira … Another pic

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney … NYT’s Carl Hulse … Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform … Amy Walter … Fox News’ Steve Doocy … former RNC Chair Michael Steele … Katie Rayford of Slate … 720 Strategies’ Jeremy Gosbee … Steven Greenhouse … Kevin Keane of the American Beverage Association … Kathryn Fanlund of the Legal Services Corporation … Lauren Crawford Shaver of FTI Consulting … Andrea Bernstein … Will Cadigan of CNN … Dave Lapan … Dana Ritter … Dale Brown of the Financial Services Institute … Kim Sullivan of the American Foreign Service Association … former Reps. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) … Brandon Morales of Apollo Generators … Ximena Barreto … Campaign Legal Center’s Grace Gerenday … The California Post’s Ross O’Keefe … Dory MacMillan … Marc Sklar … WaPo’s Anthony Faiola … Amy Carter … Michael Paul Carey … Venable’s Hailey Crust

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