Moment of truth on Iran

Presented by Anthropic: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.

Jul 22, 2026 View in browser   By Ali Bianco Presented by  THE CATCH-UP President Donald Trump privately met with the families of fallen soldiers of the Iran war on Wednesday in Dover, Delaware. | Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP WAR REPORT: For House Republicans and Democrats — and President Donald Trump — today is a day to face the music on the Iran war. Trump privately met with the families of fallen soldiers of the Iran war this morning in Dover, Delaware as he weighs escalating the conflict. The growing cost of the war complicates the next big test of GOP caucus unity — a 3:30 p.m. vote to advance a third reconciliation package and the must-pass annual defense policy bill. Democrats are preparing to rally their own troops to reject both, and make this vote the new centerpiece of attacks against the GOP and their most vulnerable incumbents. In Dover, Trump witnessed the dignified transfer and honored the lives of 1st Lt. Tyler J. Feehan, Sgt. Michael E. Swinton, Sgt. Angel S. Rampersad and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales. Yet again in the war effort, now well over 100 days in, the administration is facing the painful human cost — the youngest, Gonzales, was 19 years old. “For me, it’s one of the hardest things to do as president but it has to be done,” Trump told reporters. It comes alongside a return to threats of escalation by the president, the latest targeting Iranian infrastructure if Iran attacks any more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said on Truth Social today the U.S. will “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT,” including near Tehran, for every ship Iran targets. Trump’s comments — in conjunction with threats to hit Iran’s suspected nuclear site Pickaxe Mountain “pretty soon,” and the regime’s continued grandstanding over the strait — signal the conflict is teetering on the brink of all-out war. The U.S. also continued airstrikes in the region for the 11th consecutive night, as Gulf allies increasingly fret over the impact the drawn-out conflict is having on the region’s economy. Global oil prices continued to rise this morning, with gas prices also inching up slightly, as the economic cost of the war bears down on the administration as well. “A poll just came out, Americans don’t want high gasoline prices but they’re not against the war, that just came out loud and clear,” Trump told reporters without citing the specific poll. A POLITICO poll out this morning paints a vastly different picture, showing much of Trump’s own base fractured over the war. At the same time, House Republicans will go on the record today with votes on funding for the war. GOP leaders’ afternoon vote on the budget framework would potentially notch an extra $73 billion in defense and intelligence spending, plus $12 billion in farm aid and an additional $10 billion lever for parts of Trump’s SAVE America Act. Johnson can lose no more than two votes, and there’s more than that on the fence, our Inside Congress colleagues report. The House will take up NDAA in the same vote series, the typically bipartisan defense bill that’s become a flashpoint over the war. Johnson will also need near-unanimity from his caucus to muscle through that vote. Democratic operatives will be watching those votes with eagle eyes to pick off the GOP caucus’ most vulnerable. While the GOP is touting their third go at reconciliation as a major legislative win — and quite the feat for Johnson — Democrats are preparing to make this one of their central attack lines, pointing to souring public opinion on the war. The minority has mounted its opposition especially through the NDAA, with leaders formally recommending members vote against it. House Democratic leaders are also preparing to force another vote on an Iran war powers resolution, co-sponsored by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), with debate expected later today and a vote eyed for tomorrow, POLITICO’s Riley Rogerson and Meredith Lee Hill report. Jayapal told our colleagues “it would be an important move if we could make sure we were able to hold the Republicans, maybe add some Republicans, and hold all the Democrats” in this next vote. Lawmakers could head for the exits early tomorrow, denying Democrats one last chance at a war powers vote before August recess, Meredith reports. The Senate will have its own reckoning on Iran when it takes up the budget framework — which itself is still an open question after Senate Majority Leader John Thune made clear earlier this week he’s looking to square away government funding first. Good Wednesday afternoon. This is Ali Bianco. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Send me your tips at abianco@politico.com. A message from Anthropic: Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team Running a restaurant means financial pressure and moving parts. At Shy Bird, owner Eli Feldman uses Claude to help solve problems from kitchen organization to manager coaching, so he can give more to the people who make the restaurant run. Learn more.   8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW 1. HAPPENING TODAY: The Trump administration is expected to ink a deal with Saudi Arabia that will provide them with a crucial civilian nuclear program and possibly open the door for nuclear enrichment in the kingdom, WSJ’s Michael Gordon and Stephen Kalin scoop. The deal is expected to be signed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and “would give the U.S. influence over the Saudi nuclear program … Yet the deal, which is expected to be submitted to Congress for review in the coming days, is certain to prove controversial among many lawmakers who oppose the spread of nuclear technology in the volatile Middle East.” 2. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Endorsement watch: Ahead of this week's meeting on early Democratic voting states, the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is circulating a letter to the DNC Rules and Bylaws co-chairs backing Nevada as the first presidential nominating state, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. “The Democratic Party’s path to the White House depends on building a durable coalition that includes working-class voters, communities of color, suburban voters, organized labor, and younger voters," writes Douglas McCarron, the union's general president. "Nevada provides an opportunity to evaluate how effectively candidates engage that coalition in a state where success requires broad appeal and clearly articulated solutions to the problems facing all Americans." DNC Chair Ken Martin is a former member of the North Central States Regional Council of Carpenters. The union's backing follows a previous endorsement by UNITE Here. Read the letter And also backing Nevada: Over 20 Latino leaders are sending a letter to the RBC today, also making the case for Nevada. “No state can better ensure the prioritization of such a strategy than battleground Nevada. Nearly one in five Nevada voters is Latino, and Latinos make up 22% of the state's eligible electorate- one of the highest shares in the country,” the letter reads. “That is not symbolic, it is the test our nominee needs to pass.” 3. THE MAINE LINE: Democrat Troy Jackson’s bid to take on incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins has hit a crucial benchmark — he’s raised $1 million in less than two weeks, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard scoops. “Jackson, the presumptive Democratic nominee, raised $613,000 of that haul since Sunday following the selection of the 601 delegates who will determine Platner’s replacement this weekend.” But he’s got quite the uphill battle ahead of him: Collins is sitting on an $11 million war chest. 4. TRADING SPACES: The U.S. will hit Brazil with new 25 percent tariffs today on a range of goods from farm machinery to ethanol, escalating tensions on the already complicated trade relationship, per Reuters. The Trump administration is preparing to pare back aluminium tariffs for companies investing in American facilities, creating incentives to cut the current 50 percent levy in half, the FT’s Aime Williams and Christian Davies report. All the while, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified in the Senate this morning on the administration’s trade policy. Deeper read: NYT’s Ana Swanson filed a dispatch from Laredo, Texas on how the city has benefitted from the shift on global tariffs. “That trade is now in question as [Trump] demands changes to the North American trade agreement that has stitched together the economies of Mexico, Canada and the United States for more than three decades.”   A message from Anthropic: Helping a Boston restaurant owner support his team Running a restaurant comes with pressure. At Shy Bird, Claude helps Eli Feldman do more for his team. Learn more.   5. YOLO WATCH: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to advance both Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano’s nominations for diplomatic posts — despite the 11th hour threat by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to hold up the nominations, POLITICO’s Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing reports. Cornyn voted with all Republicans to move the nominations out of committee. And the Texas senator, now on his way out, said the White House agreed to his demand to release some of the funding for AIDS relief in Africa. 6. IMMIGRATION FILES: “The false claims, chaos and coverups behind the Trump administration’s killing of two American citizens,” by CNN’s Jake Tapper: “You don’t understand, Homeland Security officials had been trying to explain to local prosecutors and other officials. Border Patrol — these guys are not the right people to be doing immigration raids in a city. They’re used to standing alone at the southern border, no backup for 50 miles, thinking of themselves as the last line of defense … The HSI agent’s fears about the unprecedented surge of DHS personnel proved prophetic. … CNN spoke with more than a dozen former and current members of the Trump administration, most of whom refused to go on the record out of fear of retaliation by the administration.” 7. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is playing it friendly with his Chinese counterpart during his turn through Southeast Asia this week, in a move to ease tensions with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of his visit to the U.S. in September, WaPo’s John Hudson reports from Manila. But it comes just days after Trump and his allies doubled down on their claims of Chinese interference with the 2020 election. Rubio, however, is squarely focused on investments and trade, calling them “potential concrete deliverables” before the fall visit. 8. ALL IN THE FAMILY: “How Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital Is Cashing In Without Apology,” by NYT’s Maureen Farrell: “Dating back to the first Trump administration, members of the Trump family have faced criticism for mixing business with politics. But what sets apart the latest moves by Donald Trump Jr. is how he and [Omeed Malik], through 1789 Capital, are cashing in on the policies of the current administration openly and without apology. … In interviews, executives at companies 1789 is invested in said they have never seen the firm seek special treatment from the administration, but said they view being involved with 1789 as a way to get close to the Trump orbit.”   Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners.   TALK OF THE TOWN IN MEMORIAM — The late Sen. Bob Dole would have celebrated his 103rd birthday today, and the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics is marking 30 years since his retirement from the Senate with a reunion of Dole Alumni on Sept. 16. GET TICKETS. — “James Woolsey, CIA director under Bill Clinton, dies at 84,” by Bob Drogin for WaPo: “R. James Woolsey Jr., a Rhodes Scholar and lawyer who led the CIA and the rest of America’s intelligence community for two troubled years during the Clinton administration, as the nation’s spy services struggled to adapt to the post-Cold War era, died Tuesday at his home in Washington. He was 84.” BOOK CLUB — “‘Regime Change’ sells 500,000 — on track for nonfiction bestseller of '26,” by Axios’ Mike Allen: “‘Regime Change,’ the juicy exposé on President Trump's second term by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, has passed the publishing milestone of 500,000 units sold (hardcover, audio, e-book) in just one month. … Publishing sources tell me the blockbuster is on track to be the bestselling nonfiction book of 2026. Simon & Schuster has ordered a seventh printing, bringing the total hardcovers in print to 460,000.” OUT AND ABOUT — NOTUS hosted a breakfast at The Conrad featuring its local D.C. news reporting team. 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