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By Eli Okun |
Presented by |
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With help from Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Happy Saturday. This is Eli Okun in the driver’s seat. Get in touch.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Voters largely don’t think President Donald Trump could accomplish an economic policy October surprise. | Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images |
As Election Day bears down, Republicans and President Donald Trump are running out of time to turn voters’ minds around on the affordability woes that have dogged them for much of the year — some of which the GOP’s policy moves helped set in motion months ago. New results from The POLITICO Poll out today reveal that even an October surprise on policy — an end to the Iran war, a plunge in gas prices, massive job creation, way lower inflation — would nudge few undecided voters toward Republicans in November, Erin Doherty and Jessie Blaeser report. What’s more, voters largely don’t think Trump could accomplish those improvements in the first place. In other words, this economic cake is pretty baked. “Even if he did something, no one would believe it anyway at this point,” as one GOP operative bemoaned the environment. That may hold true despite the shock of Trump’s latest gambit: a deal with Russia to lift some sanctions temporarily and import Moscow’s diesel, to try to bring fuel prices down stateside after the Iran war launched by the U.S. and Israel made them skyrocket. The announcement seems to be a political head-scratcher. As POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre writes in: Who is this supposed to please? It will have little, if any, effect on fuel prices. Trump in his Truth Social post used nice, big numbers to describe the volume of diesel to be released — 500,000 tons here, a million tons there — but the amount is actually a relative pittance compared to what would be needed to meaningfully bring prices down, market analysts said. There are also questions of how much more diesel Russia can ship out given that Ukraine has already destroyed a large number of that country’s fuel refineries. More on the furious fallout in Ukraine This is now the third time Trump has announced plans he said would cut diesel prices down to size but that upon closer look don’t live up to the hype. More diesel flooding the market from European allies? Mais non. Allowing freight carriers to use tax-extempt “dyed diesel” that farmers already have access to? A great, big meh. Overall, the past few weeks have shown “the White House flailing across all manner of desperate measures” to bring down prices, Rory Johnston, oil analyst at analyst firm Commodity Context, wrote yesterday.
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A message from OpenAI: How a college freshman is helping firefighters detect wildfires with ChatGPT.
Ryan Honary began developing wildfire detection technology as a fifth-grade science project. Years and many accolades later, that experiment became SensoRy AI—a wildfire detection system that uses ChatGPT to turn sensor data into clear, actionable alerts. Those alerts go straight to departments like Laguna Beach Fire Department, giving responders an early signal when a fire starts. Learn more. |
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The diesel squeeze comes at the same time as social safety net cuts from Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act deepen, adding to financial concerns for some low-income Americans. Changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are rolling out in phases, from tougher work requirements to restrictions on non-citizens, as your Playbook author reports in a story out this morning. Food-stamp rolls already shrank by more than 5 million people nationwide as of this summer, as the hardest-hit state, Arizona, saw an outright majority of its food-stamp recipients lose benefits. The latest alteration clicked into place Oct. 1, when the share of administrative costs states and counties have to pay rose from 50% to 75%. An even bigger financial shift looms in a year. Democrats think the SNAP shift gives them an opening. After Republicans used cuts to food aid and Medicaid to help pay for last year’s tax cuts, Democrats want to make them pay politically. “People are getting kicked off these programs at the very moment they’re going to the polls to vote,” Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), the House Agriculture ranking member who lost the Democratic Senate primary earlier this year, told Playbook. But Republicans think they have a compelling story to tell voters, trying to right-size a program that spends millions of dollars on erroneous payments — a message that aligns with the Trump administration’s broader push to crack down on fraud and make the government smaller or more efficient. “The premise is simple: Let’s make sure that this program is preserved for those truly in need, and that we aren’t squandering taxpayer dollars,” a senior USDA official, granted anonymity to speak more candidly, told Playbook in an interview. That doesn’t mean Republicans in competitive races are putting SNAP and Medicaid cuts front and center on the campaign trail. When they tout last year’s megalaw, new tax breaks typically lead the messaging. And 10 frontline GOP House campaigns didn’t respond to requests for interviews about how they can win on SNAP. Read the full piece On top of SNAP changes, a record-high number of older Americans are expected to be forced into new health insurance plans starting this month as options diminish on Medicare Advantage, NYT’s Christopher Rowland and Reed Abelson report. But Trump is still working to pull rabbits out of his hat: Those $500 Obamacare “refund” checks are fanning out across the country.
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A message from OpenAI:  
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9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. AT THE PODIUM: Trump announced that he has tapped Katie Zacharia as the next White House press secretary, as NYT’s Hamed Aleaziz and colleagues scooped. Zacharia is an adviser to Trump Media and Technology Group, former DHS spokeswoman and familiar face on conservative TV. Sean Spicer’s take: “While Katie’s MAGA credentials are rock solid and it’s obvious the President has trust in her capabilities she is also a genuinely kind person and will work well with the press corps, unlike the first press secretary who came across as an angry leprechaun at times,” Trump’s first press secretary told Playbook. Scott Jennings was out of the running for the past few weeks, according to a person close to the White House granted anonymity to discuss internal thinking. Trump, they said, was never fully behind Jennings for the post. The thinking was his past ties to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his previous comments about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack would have been hard for Trump to get past. An unexpected twist: Kalshi said it’s probing at least three suspicious last-minute bets on Zacharia’s selection that were placed before the news was made public, WSJ’s Brian Schwartz and colleagues scooped. Though her odds had been long on the site, the wagers netted thousands of dollars. 2. RACE FOR THE SENATE: Democrats are increasingly confident Roy Cooper will win North Carolina, but David Plouffe said on a recent call they can’t get too cocky, POLITICO’s Erin Doherty reports. Cooper has a polling lead, but “that doesn’t mean that we can rest easy,” said Plouffe, who warned donors and supporters about the state’s frequently tight margins. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) agrees: The NRSC chair told Spicer in an interview yesterday that if Trump could travel to only three states before Election Day, North Carolina would be “constructive,” in addition to Alaska and Kansas. 3. 2028 WATCH: Doug Emhoff has said privately he’d rather former VP Kamala Harris not run for president again, WSJ’s Jessica Toonkel and colleagues scooped. It’s the latest in a series of mixed signals: Harris has taken some logistical and political steps that could lead to a campaign, but some in her inner circle — including donors — remain skeptical.
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Shaping American Influence Meridian and POLITICO join forces for the 15th Annual Summit on Oct. 16, bringing leaders together to explore "Shaping American Influence". |
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4. ON THE WORLD STAGE: The U.S. has veto power over the next U.N. secretary-general pick, and currently the Trump administration doesn’t like any of the candidates, POLITICO’s Daniella Cheslow scooped. Top officials see all the contenders, many career diplomats, as insufficiently reformist, as the U.S. continues to rattle the international body and demand changes. 5. WAR REPORT: Even after all the American and Israeli attacks, Iran still retains the ability to manufacture missiles, weapons and drones, Bloomberg’s Gerry Doyle and colleagues report. That assessment, which comes from Western officials, indicates that Tehran can use the current pause in fighting to rebuild and replenish some of its military capabilities — despite rhetoric from U.S. leaders — and it’s getting missiles from Russia, too. 6. WHAT TYSON BRODY IS READING: “Roger Marshall’s complicated history of blurring the line between taxpayer dollars and campaign cash,” by Sherman Smith and Matt Fuller for Kansas Reflector and MS NOW: “According to [Sen. Roger] Marshall’s most recent Federal Election Commission records filed in July, no one working for Marshall’s campaign had received a paycheck in the past five years — a situation that campaign finance experts said was potentially unprecedented in the modern era of politics. But according to Marshall’s chief of staff, Brent Robertson, the campaign now does have some paid staff … “[A]udio recordings, photos, videos, screenshots of text messages and calendar items from 2020 … appear to show the senator and his top aide repeatedly using congressional staff and government resources in ways that experts say likely crossed the line between official business and campaigning.” Marshall’s campaign fired back that “Senator Marshall and his team fully comply with both FEC rules and Senate ethics.” 7. BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT: A federal judge ruled the Justice Department can’t take states’ voter lists and share them with other agencies to check a database in search of elusive widespread non-citizen voting, per WaPo. She blocked the policy, citing privacy concerns and other legal protections.
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A message from OpenAI:  
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8. IT’S 2020 SOMEWHERE: “Trump’s 2020 Obsession Is Weighing Down Arizona Republicans,” by Samuel Benson and Andrew Howard in POLITICO Magazine: “Atop the Arizona ticket this cycle, Republicans nominated a string of candidates who called foul on the 2020 election or were actively involved in trying to subvert it. … And strategists on either side see a unilateral focus on 2020 as a millstone around their neck.” 9. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is traveling to Jackson, Mississippi, on Wednesday to fundraise for Democratic Senate nominee Scott Colom, meet with Mississippi faith leaders and headline a GOTV rally for Colom in the afternoon. CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies
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Kal - The Economist |
GREAT WEEKEND READS AND TOP-EDS: — Slop city: Hollywood is quickly falling for “microdramas,” two-minute-long TV shows to be watched on your phone with titles like “Dominant Don’s Disobedient Girl,” Daniel Kolitz reports in a vivid NYT Magazine dispatch from our Huxley-esque content future. The concept is imported from China, where these videos now earn more than actual films, and often the AI-translated scripts are too. Watching them “is like being electrocuted onstage at the circus.” — GQ’s Zach Baron has an essay about the beautiful, life-destroying experience of having two young kids, and the tradeoff in personal freedom that becoming a parent entails. “With two, that old life is so completely gone it’s like it never even happened,” he writes. “It is a planet you cannot return to.” — As the U.S. retreats from global advocacy for democracy and human rights, authoritarianism is spreading unchecked in places like Uganda, NYT’s Megan Stack finds in Kampala. Abetted by Chinese, Russian and Israeli technology, state surveillance is on the rise, and the West has gone quiet. “Now, suddenly, Beijing’s rules prevail.” And dissidents are left more vulnerable. — Inside the Heritage Foundation, the factions shaping the New Right are on full display. The New Yorker’s Emma Green observes it all, speaking with current and former members — including Heritage President Kevin Roberts, who sees this as “a civilizational moment for this republic.” — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s rage has pushed out multiple department officials, even as his economic work has become all the more central to the Trump administration’s agenda, WSJ’s Brian Schwartz and colleagues report. Bessent once threw his briefing book at the wall in anger, sources tell them, though he denies this. His hard-charging management style has consolidated power — and made him a key engine of policy change.
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New: Decoded by POLITICO Decoded is a daily briefing on the people, policy battles and market shifts moving technology forward. It brings POLITICO’s global reporting together in one place so you can see what’s changing and what to watch next.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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CENTER OF ATTENTION — A federal judge said yesterday the Kennedy Center needs to provide more financial information in the court dispute over its closure. And the Justice Department invoked executive privilege to try to forestall questions about President Donald Trump’s participation, an unusual step that raises complicated legal matters, WaPo’s Jonathan Edwards reports. FOLLOWING THE MONEY — “Nonprofit collecting funds for Trump’s ballroom rakes in $320 million, including non-public donations,” by NBC’s Peter Nicholas and Sarah Mimms: “The Trust for the National Mall is not required to publicly disclose donors, but a watchdog group said the public should know who is contributing millions of dollars to a presidential pet project.” FORE! — The National Park Service today will begin cutting down as many as 529 trees at East Potomac Golf Links, though the administration still hasn’t landed on a final plan for renovating the site, WaPo’s Rick Maese reports. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: California Gov. Gavin Newsom … Caroline Wren … Fox Corp.’s Brian Nick … Raj Shah … Natalie Montelongo of Marguerite Casey Foundation … Alexandra LaManna … Matt Rohan of Wells Fargo … Erin O’Malley … POLITICO’s Clea Benson, Laura DiAngelo and Sebastian Godoy … Laurence Tribe … S-3 Group’s Michael Long … Brandon Neal … Jessica (Powell) Dickson of Invariant … Adnan Mohamed … Christina Harvey of Stand Up America … Guillermo Meneses … Michael Borden of Sidley Austin … Tanveer Kathawalla … former Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), Joe Pitts (R-Pa.) and Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) … Dirk Maurer … Clarence Anthony of the National League of Cities … Seth Levey … Rachael Taylor of HB Strategies … Raquel Krähenbühl … Heather Sager of the American Association for Justice … Andrew Smith of House Armed Services … Noah Baker … State Department’s Spencer Anderson … Healy Baumgardner … Lauren Chiou of Senate Energy and Natural Resources THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): FOX “Fox News Sunday”: DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin … Zach Lahn … Iowa state Auditor Rob Sand … Marc Siegel … Brit Hume. Panel: Yemisi Egbewole, Hans Nichols, Tiffany Smiley and Roger Zakheim. NBC “Meet the Press”: Abdul El-Sayed … Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) … Michael Lewis … Tom Costello. Panel: Stephen Hayes, Jeh Johnson and Amna Nawaz. ABC “This Week”: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) … Adam Hamilton. Panel: Donna Brazile, Chris Christie, Marianna Sotomayor and Eliana Johnson. CBS “Face the Nation”: DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin … Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) … Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) … Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) … Shyam Sankar. CNN “State of the Union”: DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin … Bill Gates. Panel: Ashley Davis, Brad Todd, Karen Finney and Corbin Trent. MS NOW “Connect with Jacob Soboroff”: Yuval Abraham … Texas state Rep. Gina Hinojosa … California state Sen. Scott Wiener. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt … Texas Dem Chair Kendall Scudder … Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller. Panel: Gromer Jeffers Jr., Isaac Ramirez and Brian Entin. PBS “Compass Points”: Brett McGurk. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord.
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A message from OpenAI: Using ChatGPT to detect wildfires early.
Detecting a wildfire early can mean the difference between containment and catastrophe. That’s what SensoRy AI is built for. After seeing the devastation of the 2018 Camp Fire in fifth grade, Ryan Honary thought there had to be a better way. He turned that thought into a science project, using a few wires, a heat detector, and a hair dryer. Five years later, that science project became SensoRy AI, a wildfire detection system that identifies fires at ignition and immediately alerts firefighters and officials. ChatGPT then translates complex sensor data into clear, actionable alerts responders can act on. Today, SensoRy AI is being used by the Laguna Beach Fire Department and deployed across three Southern California cities. It has already detected fires in the field and is expanding to more than 100 sensors across the state. Explore the story. |
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