Republicans are heading home for the July Fourth recess with a sinking feeling on the economy — the biggest issue poised to tip voters in this year’s midterms. Job growth slowed last month. Employers added a less-than-expected 57,000 jobs in June, according to Labor Department statistics out today. That’s far below the 129,000 jobs added in May and comes amid high anxiety about the state of the country’s economy. Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5, failing to keep up with inflation. That’s not to say the numbers were all bad. The unemployment rate — an arguably better indicator of market health — dropped to 4.2 percent, and private-sector job growth is expanding at the strongest rate of Trump’s second term. The overall takeaway is that the U.S. labor market is humming along at a solid clip by many indicators. But critically, Americans aren’t feeling it, POLITICO’s Sam Sutton and Victoria Guida note. It’s a similar problem that former President Joe Biden faced: Voter confidence has been shaken by rising prices. In other words, a solid job market is being overtaken by crushing inflation. There is widespread and spiking economic anxiety — targeted primarily at President Donald Trump and Republicans — meaning that today’s readings still don’t give the GOP the boost they were hoping for just four months out from the November elections, when Democrats believe they can tap into an affordability-focused messaging to reclaim control of Congress. “The Trump economy is FAILING hardworking Americans,” the House Democrats X account posted this morning in a plain example of the party’s comms plan. “Fewer jobs means fewer opportunities to feed your family.” Trump surged back to the White House in 2024 in large part because voters trusted him on the economy more than former VP Kamala Harris. The White House is aware of the political liability posed by voters’ pocketbook unease — and it’s working hard to quell concerns. The president has blamed gas prices not falling fast enough on oil retailers and called on the DOJ to investigate them. His “Trump Accounts” — a savings and investment vehicle for kids that start with $1,000 in seed money from the federal government — go live on July Fourth. And he constantly hammers the strength of the market, sharing a link this morning to an article called “S&P 500 closes with strongest quarter since 2020.” And the White House is pitching its message just as hard as Democrats. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt celebrated today’s numbers as a sign of success for Trump’s immigration crackdown, applauding how “the foreign-born labor force has fallen sharply over the past year.” Good Thursday afternoon. PROGRAMMING NOTE: Playbook PM will be off tomorrow for the holiday weekend. We’ll be back in your inbox on Monday, and Playbook will still publish in the morning. Thanks for reading. This is Irie Sentner. Get in touch.
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