Why 2028ers are watching Minnesota

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Aug 11, 2026 View in browser   By Ali Bianco and Eli Okun Presented by  THE CATCH-UP CLICKER: Nate Silver just launched his FLIPR midterms forecast, which currently envisions an 87 percent chance Democrats will flip the House and a 57 percent chance they’ll flip the Senate — with North Carolina, Maine, Texas and Ohio likeliest to swing blue. The full model The blistering Senate Democratic primary in Minnesota between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig will be an emphatic referendum on standing up to ICE operations. | Ellen Schmidt/AP ELECTION DAY: A slate of primaries will come to a head across the Midwest tonight, and one will illuminate a path for Democrats — including those looking toward 2028 — through the politics of immigration. The blistering Senate Democratic primary in Minnesota between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig will be an emphatic referendum on whether the party base is effectively standing up to President Donald Trump’s ICE enforcement operations. It’s become the defining issue of their primary matchup, fanned by the toll of Trump’s Operation Metro Surge in the state — and enflamed by the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. But the immigration recriminations date back to well before Metro Surge consumed the state with anti-ICE fervor. Flanagan’s attacks on Craig have centered on a single vote Craig cast, which she since walked back in an op-ed, in the early days of the second Trump administration: joining Republicans to pass the Laken Riley Act. “This is the point of contrast,” Flanagan recently told Playbook. “My opponent, Congresswoman Craig, voted three days into the second Trump administration for the Laken Riley Act, which I think is what gave Trump the green light for Operation Midway Blitz, for Operation Metro Surge.” Craig wasn’t alone among Democrats supporting the bill, which requires DHS to detain non-citizens arrested for burglary, theft and other charges. Numerous Dem moderates staring down tough races this cycle also backed the law, including Reps. Henry Cuellar (Texas), Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.). Some vulnerable lawmakers including Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), like Craig, regret that vote. A crop of potential 2028 prospects may be watching the Minnesota results for clues about where the Democratic base stands on the Laken Riley referendum. That includes Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who’s positioned himself as an arbiter of immigration messaging. There’s Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who hasn’t shut down the rumors she’s weighing a presidential bid. Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) are also in the mix. All voted for the Laken Riley Act. Progressives are trying to turn the vote into a litmus test for 2028. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), another potential presidential candidate, wrote on X months ago the Laken Riley vote “is a disqualifying vote to lead our party” — a sentiment that could be revived on a 2028 debate stage. But tonight will be the real test of the issue’s potency among the base, and whether Flanagan and other progressives successfully tied Laken Riley Act support to the fallout from Trump’s immigration crackdown. “I think it is certainly something that we are hearing on the campaign trail, and has been a rallying cry,” Flanagan told Playbook. The race is expected to be a nail-biter. Flanagan is backed by retiring Sen. Tina Smith and has strong support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The brunt of Flanagan’s ads — backed by millions from the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association she previously chaired — slammed Craig for the vote. But Craig commanded a whopping $9.6 million in ad spending in her favor, per the ad tracking firm AdImpact, compared to Flanagan’s roughly $1.9 million. That produced another point of tension in the race, with dark money fueling a flurry of ads defending Craig, per the Minnesota Star Tribune. Craig told POLITICO in a statement she’s the only one who’s “taken on Trump and former DHS Secretary [Kristi] Noem,” whom she pushed to impeach. Craig received backing from many of the party’s moderates, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and most recently New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Her campaign highlighted Craig’s ICE opposition, including voting down DHS funding, and hit Flanagan over donations from ICE contractors to the DLGA under her tenure. The race has also featured a barrage of criticism over how Minnesota has handled fraud investigations, and the outside spending has cropped up as a flashpoint. But immigration is the issue on which the party will glean its biggest lessons here. Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at abianco@politico.com and eokun@politico.com.   A message from AHIP: Congress enacted the No Surprises Act to protect consumers from surprise medical bills and to lower healthcare costs. But egregious abuse of the law by certain private equity-backed providers is causing billions in wasteful spending and Americans are footing the bill. Policy action is needed to stop this windfall. Learn more.   8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW 1. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Montana Senate race appears pretty sewn up for Republican Kurt Alme after neither Democrat Alani Bankhead nor independent Seth Bodnar dropped out by yesterday’s deadline. But Bodnar’s campaign disagrees: In a memo sketching out a path to victory, they argue Alme is currently ahead about 44 percent to 30 percent — but has largely been untested and un-scrutinized. They envision Bodnar siphoning votes from independents and Republicans turned off by the gamesmanship that handed Alme the nomination basically uncontested. “If Alme falls below 40 percent, the entire race changes,” the campaign writes of what they see as a plurality election. The memo Bodnar is also launching a new TV ad to introduce himself to more voters as a rare high-profile independent candidate: “They can’t force me into a box,” he says. As the frontrunner, Alme isn’t sweating a divided field. “Kurt Alme’s opponents’ campaigns are built on deception and dark money,” campaign spokesperson Jack O’Brien said. “Kurt Alme will win this race because he is the only candidate with deep Montana roots, President Trump’s endorsement, and a proven record.” Bankhead sees her own path to victory by reviving the Democratic brand in the state. “This race is all about the grassroots people power of Montana,” said campaign spokesperson Jeri Bucy. “Montana has a legacy of kicking powerful corporate corruption to the curb and that legacy is being resurrected in this campaign.” 2. BULLETIN: “Former US Marine Robert Gilman released from detention in Russia,” by CNN’s Jennifer Hansler: “His release came amid severe concerns about his health, with an advocate warning just days ago that he was ‘near death.’ [Robert] Gilman, a former Marine, had been detained since 2022. A US State Department spokesperson said Gilman was released on humanitarian grounds, noting that his release ‘was not part of an exchange, and no other concessions were provided.’” 3. WAR REPORT: Violence flared in the Middle East this morning as the U.S. attacked a ship that was trying to get out of the American blockade of Iranian ports, WSJ’s Jared Malsin scooped. No casualties were reported right away. Meanwhile, despite public indications to the contrary, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said the U.S. and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement” regarding the contested Strait of Hormuz, per Bloomberg. His comments helped ease oil prices a bit after they breached $90 a barrel earlier in the day.   Catch up on On the Road with Jonathan Martin Season 2 is underway. Jonathan Martin sits down with key political players in the places that shaped them for conversations on power, strategy, 2028 and what comes next for American politics. Watch now.     4. OVERSIGHT OVERVIEW: A new legal opinion from the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel could make it harder for Democrats to conduct oversight of private citizens who’ve tried to influence the White House, per Punchbowl. The OLC memo determines the president can make executive privilege claims extending to the messages his advisers have with “private advisers,” which could block Congress from digging into such communications. Usually, executive privilege has applied only to people within the executive branch. 5. THE POLITICS OF DATA CENTERS: Texas AG Ken Paxton hasn’t spoken out much about data centers, even as state Rep. James Talarico urges more regulations amid a voter backlash. Behind the scenes, Paxton’s political operation has been backed by the data center industry, which has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to him, NOTUS’ Taylor Giorno reports. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro’s touting of data center development last year has turned into a potential political liability — and he’s changed his tune about the projects, the Philly Inquirer’s Michelle Baruchman and Gillian McGoldrick report. 6. KFILE STRIKES AGAIN: CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski dug up some more controversial past comments by Abdul El-Sayed, some of which he has deleted from YouTube. The statements include suggesting a replacement of the Second Amendment with a constitutional right to health care; saying “fireworks suck” and pose health/safety risks; and questioning football. El-Sayed’s campaign disavowed some of these remarks as “[c]herry-picked” and said he loves football, respects the right to bear arms and celebrates the Fourth of July with fireworks. 7. TALES FROM THE CRYPTO: “Democrats brace for Wall Street regulators’ coming crypto plans,” by POLITICO’s Declan Harty: “The so-called Clarity Act’s setback has put the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission in position to drive crypto policymaking in Washington. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig are ready to go with a slate of crypto-focused plans — the first of which could come Friday at an SEC meeting. But they risk a backlash from the left as lawmakers fear they’re too cozy with the industry. … The coming clash will offer a glimpse of the challenge that Atkins and Selig could face if Republicans lose control of [Congress].” 8. IMMIGRATION FILES: “ICE Arrests Are Pushing Immigrant Families Deeper Into Poverty,” by Bloomberg’s Augusta Saraiva: “The loss of a paycheck often coincides with new legal fees, detention-related expenses and childcare costs, sometimes pushing an already-vulnerable family deeper into poverty. … [I]nterviews with local charities and city governments in communities at the epicenter of Trump’s immigration crackdown indicate that the effects are often large and long-lasting.”   A message from AHIP:   TALK OF THE TOWN IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED — The White House has asked the Justice Department to look into pursuing a new prosecution of Davey Hearn, likely a misdemeanor this time, over the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, WSJ’s Alex Leary and Sadie Gurman scooped. It’s a reflection of how intensely President Donald Trump is holding onto his baseless beliefs that vandalism is largely to blame for problems at the reflecting pool, even though U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro dropped her first Hearn case because it wasn’t supported by evidence. HISTORY LESSON — “Trump’s secret Air Force One switch crosses a new line with journalists,” by WaPo’s Scott Nover: “Bill Clinton’s White House used a similar plane-change maneuver in 2000. But unlike July’s flight, the press corps was briefed on the operation and its dangers.” TRANSITIONS — Kristen Tyagi is joining The Herald Group as a senior director. She previously worked at Parents for School Options, and is a DDC Public Affairs and Purple Strategies alum. … Eli Greenspan is now a senior policy adviser in Polsinelli’s public policy practice. He previously worked at Foley Hoag. … Michael Washburn will be the next executive director of the National Wildlife Federation Action Fund. He previously has led the Kentucky Waterways Alliance. … … Jade Byers is joining the American Federation for Children as director of comms. She previously worked for Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee. … Maura Allen is joining Share Our Strength as chief program officer. She most recently worked at ACDI/VOCA. … Polymarket is adding Travis VanderZanden as chief growth officer, Megan McGrath as chief compliance officer of the U.S. exchange, Natalie Oblazny as head of regulatory affairs for the U.S. exchange, Shana Bautista as global head of investigations and intelligence and Paul Jordan as chief risk officer for Polymarket U.S. More from CNBC Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.   Introducing Canberra Playbook Washington reads Playbook before Washington is awake. Now Canberra gets the same treatment: AUKUS, critical minerals and the Indo-Pacific's busiest policy agenda, every weekday morning. Canberra Playbook launches 17 August. 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