Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: The Trump crunch cracking his coalition

The Trump crunch cracking his coalition

Sep 04, 2026

By Adam Wren, Will Steakin and Dasha Burns

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner

Happy Friday. If you thought this year’s redistricting arms race was settled, the Show-Me State showed us all why not. Get in touch.

In today’s Playbook …

— Republicans wonder how much Donald Trump could weigh them down.

— Missouri suddenly rescrambles the redistricting arms race.

— The Boldfaces: Tucker Carlson, Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers, Rebecca Katz, Mark Zuckerberg, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., John Fetterman, Hung Cao, Adam Telle, Don Lemon and more.

DRIVING THE DAY

Two years ago, Donald Trump built a GOP coalition “too big to rig.” Now, that coalition appears frayed beyond repair.

There are two millstones around MAGA’s neck right now, both of which represent key pieces of his 2024 comeback plan: a simmering war in the Middle East he promised to end and the breakup of the MAHA coalition that he promised to tend.

Republicans face a hard choice: Lash themselves to the MAGA mast, or go it alone.

The threat of a Trump drag is so dire that some at-risk Republicans have relayed to Trump’s political team that they don’t want him to visit their districts ahead of November, four Republicans involved in the conversations told POLITICO’s Andrew Howard and colleagues. And top GOP pollsters have advised some vulnerable incumbents and candidates to either not talk about Trump on the trail, or at least limit direct references to the president, our colleagues reported.

“We've told them he cannot come,” said a senior Republican involved in a competitive House race in a district Trump won by double digits in 2024. “I do not believe they would send him without our OK. And if they did, we probably wouldn't campaign with him.”

Many of the concerns center on the political and economic ramifications from Trump’s unpopular war with Iran. Party officials and operatives are resigned to a war that will extend beyond Election Day, an outcome many said they feared when the conflict began six months ago, POLITICO’s Alex Gangitano and colleagues report.

One Republican operative working on races across the country said “we’ve run out of time” to change voters’ minds on the war, which they indicated is already “baked in” to the election.

Aside from the economic woes blistering Republicans up and down the ballot, Trump’s alienation of the MAHA movement is threatening to break off even more base support — with real implications in November and beyond.

Top MAHA leaders are warning that Trump’s lack of results for the movement will lead to a stunted coalition in the midterms, POLITICO’s Cheyenne Haslett reports. The concern is that independent or Democratic moms who boosted Trump in 2024 will swing back to the other side come 2028.

A message from Anthropic:

How a small lab is giving more patients next-day answers. A kidney disease diagnosis is hard enough without a long wait for answers. As case loads grow at Arkana Labs, they’re using Claude to help process referral paperwork with 97–98% accuracy, so patients still get results the day after a biopsy. Learn more.

To understand how far to the right Trump has moved his coalition, how he bent traditional political lanes and how it’s nearly meeting the left in a horseshoe-like way, look no further than Tucker Carlson.

There he was gushing over Abdul El-Sayed, the Michigan Democratic Senate candidate who’s campaigned on an “America First” approach when it comes to the war in the Middle East.

“It’s literally Trumpian,” Carlson said on his podcast this week — a clip VP JD Vance indicated he saw.

As for El-Sayed’s Republican opponent? “I wouldn't vote for Mike Rogers at gun point,” Carlson said.

It was a vivid illustration of the peril for Republicans.

“Looks like Mike Rogers has a base problem,” a delighted Rebecca Katz, whose FIGHT Agency is advising El Sayed, told Playbook.

On today’s Playbook Podcast: POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Playbook’s Ali Bianco recap the first White House press briefing in 42 days, insights from a private phone call between Trump and Mark Zuckerberg, and a big redistricting shakeup.

A message from Anthropic:

Claude helps diagnose equipment, translate for crews, and log every job. Learn more.

THE DOWNLOAD

RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: Democrats may be one seat closer to flipping the House, after a surprise Missouri Supreme Court ruling blocked the GOP’s latest gerrymander. The immediate impact — barring any intervention from the U.S. Supreme Court — is that Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver likely keeps his seat for at least one more term, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard writes in.

But the ruling also presents both parties with a major test that could shape the 2028 redistricting battles, where a handful of states are likely to proceed with ballot measures that’ll need voter support. Missouri will prove whether red-state voters have the appetite to push forward a GOP gerrymander, like Virginia and California did for Democrats.

Looking further ahead: Dems also scored a state Supreme Court win in Maryland, where their own gerrymandering referendum (aimed at 2028) can now go on the ballot this fall, per POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy and Jalen Beckford.

BRAVE NEW WORLD: Washington is still searching for a way forward on AI. POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Business Insider’s Charles Rollet revealed a secret Mark Zuckerberg call with Trump last month, in which the Meta CEO raised concerns about a FINRA-esque national AI regulator. Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) laid out a much more skeptical approach calling for much more regulation — including a ban on “superintelligence,” per POLITICO’s Owen Dahlkamp.

JOBS DAY: After a summer of disappointing jobs numbers, the August report comes out at 8:30 a.m. Economists have predicted a small gain of 53,000 jobs.

Watch Susan Collins on On the Road with Jonathan Martin

Sen. Susan Collins joins Jonathan Martin at Perry’s Lobster Shack in coastal Maine for a conversation on her reelection fight, Trump’s second administration, the future of the Republican Party and whether there is still room for a political middle.

Watch now.

THE FRONT PAGE

VAX NOT: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has quietly detailed an Army doctor to advise HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., POLITICO’s Carmen Paun and Josh Gerstein scooped — and she’s investigating whether any troops died from a mandatory Covid-19 vaccine. Theresa Long said in a deposition she’s looking into thousands of unverified deaths, part of the administration’s broader campaign to denigrate vaccine mandates.

E-RING READING: Hung Cao is a controversial nominee for Navy secretary. But his chief impediment to confirmation may actually be logistical, POLITICO’s Leo Shane III and Connor O’Brien report: Because he was in active duty too recently, he needs a waiver — and Congress has scant time in D.C. to deliver it. Atop the Army, Trump yesterday sprang for an unexpected acting secretary pick in Adam Telle, per Connor. Currently in charge of the Army Corps of Engineers, the veteran Hill staffer replaces Dan Driscoll for now, leapfrogging Michael Obadal.

BIG MONEY: With primary season almost over, POLITICO’s Jessica Piper and Jason Beeferman have an invaluable guide to the impact of dominant AI and cryptocurrency super PAC spending in this year’s elections. The groups won about 90 percent of the races they waded into. That may be less impressive than it sounds: Plenty of those races were gimmes in which the spending wasn’t decisive, and the super PACs were less successful overall in Democratic primaries. Still, one-sixth of the next Congress will have been backed by them.

AD IT UP: Senate Leadership Fund is deploying some of its first negative ads in Ohio and Georgia against Sherrod Brown and Sen. Jon Ossoff, and hitting state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa. The trio of ads are each backed by seven figures. Watch: Georgia … Ohio … Iowa

A message from Anthropic:

How a small pathology lab is giving more patients next-day answers

5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. MAILING IT IN: The first mail ballots of the general election are going out today in North Carolina, even as litigation continues over federal rules. The Justice Department went back to the Supreme Court yesterday to try to get new U.S. Postal Service regulations unblocked, per POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein. But the judge who blocked them worried aloud at a hearing that allowing the rules to go forward could unleash “major disenfranchisement,” per the NYT.

2. THE NEXT FLASHPOINT: A remarkable new analysis from Reuters’ Nilo Tabrizy and colleagues concluded that a U.S. munition likely directly struck an Iranian wedding this week, killing four and injuring 68. If so, it would be one of the highest-profile instances of civilian casualties since the war’s early days. Vance said the administration is investigating but that he’s “extremely skeptical” of the report. He also said the war shouldn’t be called a war and that “there is no active shooting,” despite this week’s attacks.

3. TOP TALKER: The latest dispatch about Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) disinterest in doing much of his job dropped last night from WSJ’s Will Hobson and Siobhan Hughes, with some buzzy anecdotes. He forwent a meeting with disabled veterans to do a Fox hit about Israel, they report. He derided a meeting with Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia officials about Medicaid cuts. He skipped a funeral for police officers killed near his hometown. Fetterman’s main focus now seems to be conservative media and Israel. He didn’t respond to requests for comment.

4. THE MEASLES BACKSTORY: What was behind CDC Director Erica Schwartz’s controversial decision to ax two people in Pennsylvania from the agency’s list of measles-related deaths? Kennedy asked her to do so, despite CDC staffers disagreeing, Reuters’ Yasmeen Abutaleb and Dan Levine scooped.

5. CUBA LATEST: “US hits Cuba with new sanctions as island’s crises multiply,” by AP’s Dánica Coto: “Among those hit with sanctions are Fidel Ernesto Castro, grandson of former President Raúl Castro, and Cuba’s Oil Industry Supply Import Company, known as Abapet.”

A message from Anthropic:

How SoFlo Solar runs their business with help from Claude

Luis Galarza and Laura Gutierrez founded SoFlo Solar to restore solar power for homeowners left with broken systems after installers went out of business. Claude helps them diagnose equipment across manufacturers, translate for crews, and log every job. Learn more.

FRIDAY PROGRAMS …

C-SPAN “Ceasefire”: Reps. George Whitesides (D-Calif.) and Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.) … Chuck Rocha and Bryan Lanza.

PBS “Washington Week”: special edition with Josh Tyrangiel.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

NBC “Meet the Press”: Steve Kornacki with new polling … Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) … Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.). Panel: Matt Gorman, Steve Ricchetti, Julie Tsirkin and Amy Walter.

CNN “State of the Union”: Gina Hinojosa. Panel: Kristin Davison, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Kate Bedingfield and Jamal Simmons.

ABC “This Week”: Energy Secretary Chris Wright … Frank Kendall III … Utah Gov. Spencer Cox. Panel: Donna Brazile, Doug Heye, Susan Glasser and Charles Lane.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Energy Secretary Chris Wright … Andy McCarthy … Frank Siller. Panel: Michael Allen, Francesca Chambers, Marie Harf and Marc Thiessen.

MS NOW “The Weekend”: Norm Eisen … Susan Wild … Andrew Card.

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Panel: Scott Tranter, Jessica Taylor, Lynda Tran and Lisa Camooso Miller.

PBS “Compass Points”: Panel: Shuvaloy Majumdar, Christopher Sands and Robert Zoellick.

Follow the politics of rising power demand

POLITICO Surge is here. This free daily newsletter tracks how AI, data centers, electrification and grid pressure are reshaping energy policy, infrastructure and climate politics.

Subscribe Now.

TALK OF THE TOWN

DON LEMON 2028? During Gavin Newsom’s first stop on his “Take It Back” tour in South Carolina yesterday, the California governor was nearly upstaged by another photo line for a different sharply dressed man greeting attendees, Will reports from Hardeeville.

“Did you see me hiding?” Don Lemon told Playbook as he was swarmed by fans in the corner of the event. “I don’t want the governor to get mad at me, because it’s about him … I’m trying to hide.”

He wasn’t doing a particularly good job. Lemon was there covering Newsom’s South Carolina swing. But the former CNN anchor-turned-independent media firebrand — who has said he’s serious about a potential 2028 presidential run — told Playbook he was also doing some scouting.

“I’m not a politician. I’m a journalist. But now I get to learn about maybe what’s to come and how to do it,” Lemon said. “And maybe how to do it better.”

Lemon has built a sizable following for his independent news coverage, with millions of subscribers on YouTube and TikTok — platforms he could leverage if he goes from covering candidates to becoming one. In between posing for photos, Lemon told Playbook he’ll run if enough people keep approaching him like they did here in Hardeeville and asking him to. “I’m an American patriot. I’m a son of the South, and if people call on me to do it, I’ll do it,” he said.

Then, just as our interview wrapped, another fan walked up and asked if Playbook could take a photo of them with Lemon. “You’re gonna write about that, right?” Lemon asked.

IN MEMORIAM — “Former Rep. Charles Hatcher dies at age 87,” by Roll Call’s Victor Feldman: The Democrat “championed Georgia’s peanut industry for over a decade until losing his seat in [the] House in 1992 … Getting federal funds to rural businesses was also a priority for Hatcher. … Hatcher crossed party lines on several high-profile issues at the time. … At the same time, he was also a reliable vote for Democratic leadership.”

WHAT HAPPENED WITH MARIA BARTIROMO? — Explanations are starting to roll in for why the high-profile anchor is out at Fox. Status’ Oliver Darcy reports that she was ousted after telling the White House about TV execs’ guidance not to talk about Trump’s election fraud claims on the air.

INCOMING — Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the groundbreaking for Trump’s massive arch may begin within the next couple of weeks, per POLITICO’s Elleiana Green.

BEN TERRIS ON THE BALLROOM — “Ballroom Blitz,” in N.Y. Mag: “Since Trump’s return to the White House, his administration has made changes to more than 100 structures in Washington, D.C. The total price tag: somewhere north of a billion dollars. … Trump is aware of [the political] concerns. He just doesn’t really care. ‘I think the people should be thankful for it,’ he says.”

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM — Among the Republicans opting out of the party’s midterm convention next week, you can add little-seen first lady Melania Trump to the list, the Washington Examiner’s Hailey Bullis and Naomi Lim scooped.

FENCED IN — The National Capital Planning Commission moved forward the Trump administration’s plan to put up permanent fencing around Lafayette Square, per WaPo, and to create a White House visitor screening center.

TRANSITIONS — Aleeke Spence is joining data security company Cohesity as director of government affairs. He most recently worked at Adobe. … Anna Lefer is joining the Working Families Party as chief development officer. She previously worked at the Arca Foundation and consulted for the AFL-CIO.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lauren LaBruna Smith, producer for “The Megyn Kelly Show,” and Riley Smith, head of finance for North America at Ligentia, recently welcomed Jacqueline Jean Smith. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) … Zach Leighton … CRC Advisors’ Laura Schlapp … Jerry Dunleavy … WSJ’s Dave Brown … POLITICO’s Mickey Djuric … Victoria Coates … CBS’ Kierra Frazier … Michael McAuliff … The Washington Times’ Susan Ferrechio … Dana Gartzke … The Atlantic’s Nancy Youssef … Kelu Chao … Govio’s Matt Sonneborn … Will Taliaferro … BGR Group’s Chad Horrell … Harold Ickes … former acting CIA Director Mike Morell … Sam Dagher … former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer … Hagar Hajjar Chemali … Claire Bischoff of JPMorgan Chase … Kim Wehle … Lisa Bianco … Emily Armstrong of Rep. Jahana Hayes’ (D-Conn.) office … Victoria (Cram) Hood … Anu Rangappa … Olivia Palombo of Fox News

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.

Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated Tiffany Waddell’s work affiliation. She is at Aflac.