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By Adam Wren, Will Steakin and Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Tuesday morning. Who hasn’t had a Coors Light or three in the midst of election anxiety? Send us your coping tips. In today’s Playbook … — Elon Musk emerges as a top 2027 target for Oversight Dems. — Thom Tillis counts down to “whoop-ass” in 14 days. — The Boldfaces: Greg Casar, Pramila Jayapal, Ashley St. Clair, James Blair, Andy Beshear, JB Pritzker, Sergey Brin, Pete Hegseth, David Flippo, Eliott Rodriguez, Maria Elvira Salazar and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Elon Musk is injecting main character energy into the midterms, and congressional Democrats with a growing itch to reclaim oversight powers are taking notice. The eccentric former DOGE frontman already poured $158 million into backing Ken Paxton in Texas, where several of his businesses — which boast multibillion-dollar federal contracts — are headquartered. “Talarico hates Texas,” Musk posted to X about Democratic nominee James Talarico this week. “Control of the senate will decide the future of America,” he added. Talarico is happy to oblige Musk’s offer to play foil down the homestretch. “This election is about whether or not you want a senator who serves you or who serves their billionaire megadonors,” Talarico said in Plano Sunday. “And Ken Paxton has the ultimate megadonor. Elon Musk is trying to buy this fantasy in Texas.” That’s all the excuse House Democrats need to seek retribution. “Our committees need to be doing oversight both into the Trump administration, but I think even more importantly or equally importantly into the corporations and ultra rich people who have tried to corrupt our government,” Texas Rep. Greg Casar, a member of the House Oversight Committee and chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told Playbook in an interview. “And, of course, Elon Musk is on that list because it takes two to tango.” They’re tying those investigations to Musk’s midterm money bomb, with Casar saying Democrats “absolutely should be looking into how Elon Musk, by trying to spend $300 million in the midterm elections” and support “Republican politicians, is trying to buy his way into billions of dollars more in federal government money.” Starlink disruptions in Ukraine last week further inflamed oversight interest. “What happens when one guy gets a giant contract from the government and then uses it to do something that shuts down communication in a war that has been extremely important to the United States to support Ukraine?” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who sits on the Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an interview. “There’s a lot of different parts of the corruption around Musk, but also around the broader constellation of players,” Jayapal added. Musk, through spokespeople for his companies and his America PAC, did not respond to Playbook’s request for comment.
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A message from OpenAI: How a college freshman is helping firefighters detect wildfires with ChatGPT.
Ryan Honary began developing wildfire detection technology as a fifth-grade science project. Years and many accolades later, that experiment became SensoRy AI—a wildfire detection system that uses ChatGPT to turn sensor data into clear, actionable alerts. Those alerts go straight to departments like Laguna Beach Fire Department, giving responders an early signal when a fire starts. Learn more. |
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“Multiple committees are now gaming out how they will target Musk next term, with senior members and aides considering how he fits into their panel’s jurisdiction,” POLITICO’s Riley Rogerson, Chris Marquette and Playbook report. “Any number of committees in both chambers could stake a claim to probing a piece of Musk’s dealings with the federal government.” One potential witness who’s caught Democrats’ eye: Ashley St. Clair, the former MAGA influencer who shares a child with Musk. St. Clair has raised questions about Musk's claims to have access to real-time election data in 2024, and shared text messages allegedly sent by the world's richest man in the new “Musk” documentary, in which he wrote he had “10,000 lasers in space” and boasted of a move on the political chessboard his opponents wouldn't anticipate. “I think there is a preponderance of evidence that at least this man needs to be asked some questions,” St. Clair told Playbook. “The American people have a right to ask, ‘Well, how did you have the best real-time data?’” St. Clair warned that Musk's influence extends far beyond the hundreds of millions he's pouring into elections. “One really, really under-discussed asset that he has is Twitter, X, and the amount of propaganda that's able to be pushed on there at any given moment,” she said. “Elon can push this message out to millions of voters, and simultaneously he could have access to exactly what's going to sway a voter, what might change their mind.” “If we thought Cambridge Analytica was bad, this seemingly is Cambridge Analytica on rabies and steroids,” St. Clair said. On today’s Playbook Podcast: Dasha, Adam and Will examine how Musk emerged as a top target for Oversight Dems, offer an update on the Susie Wiles saga and chime in on local Indiana Democrat Jaime West’s admission that she was drinking before her viral candidate interview. Listen and subscribe on Apple and Spotify
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A message from OpenAI: 
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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THE POTUS ROADSHOW: Trump is heading to Greenville, North Carolina, for a campaign rally at 7 p.m. tonight, descending again on the state where GOP Senate hopes have dwindled and where VP JD Vance stumped yesterday. It’s the second stop on a seven-day blitz of campaign travel across ruby red areas to boost GOP turnout — under the new lines, Trump would have carried the Greenville area by 14 points. He’ll hit South Carolina tomorrow.
- Speaking of the veep: Trump and Vance are expected to “make an announcement” at 1:30 p.m. today from the Oval Office.
- Back traveling with Trump: On Air Force One during Trump’s trip to Kansas yesterday was none other than James Blair, one of Trump’s top outside political advisers who’s been embroiled in the Republika Srpska saga, per NY Post’s Emily Goodin.
THE BATTLE FOR OKLAHOMA: The Democratic Governors Association, led by Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, is investing $500,000 in Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race, Playbook’s Megan Messerly has learned, making an unusually aggressive play in a state Trump won by 34 points just two years ago. The investment comes as Republican Mike Mazzei, Trump’s pick in a bitter GOP primary, finds himself in a surprisingly competitive race against Democratic state Rep. Cyndi Munson.
- An internal Munson poll obtained by Playbook shows Mazzei leading 49% to 45%, within the survey’s margin of error. DGA officials say the investment is driven in part by Munson’s potential crossover appeal among supporters of Mazzei’s primary opponent, Gentner Drummond. Three Republicans familiar with the race privately described Mazzei as a weaker-than-average candidate, highlighting the risks of Trump putting his finger on the scale in GOP primaries. “Will he win? Yes,” said one Republican familiar with the race. “Will it be way too close? Yes.”
PRITZKER PONIES UP: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is pouring tens of millions of dollars of his own money into boosting Black and Hispanic candidates this cycle — moves that could help him win over critical voters in 2028, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish reports from Chicago. Pritzker is investing at least $38 million in battleground races, with much of that spending going to candidates of color, some of whom haven’t drawn much other investment from national Democrats. He’s also splashing cash in all six early states on the Democratic presidential nominating calendar.
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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ON THE ROAD AGAIN: POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin returns “On the Road” and sits down with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis over eggs, grits and biscuits at the Carolina Family Restaurant in Charlotte. We won’t bury the lede: Tillis has a countdown clock on his phone leading up to “whoop-ass.” No, seriously the app is counting down the days to what he thinks will be his party’s reckoning on Nov. 3. Tillis and JMart discuss how it got to this point, why he blames Trump’s advisers and what he makes of Vance’s chances in 2028.
- On 2028: “There's no question in my mind that the president is going to pick the Republican nominee,” Tillis said. “And if we don't have a very different posture, then that pretty much seals the fate of whoever that nominee is, in my opinion, because that would be another referendum on Trump.” Watch the full episode on YouTube … Read the interview
DOWN-BALLOT DEMS: Democratic candidates are running ahead of Republicans in attorney general races across several battleground states, according to new polling from Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group obtained by POLITICO's Erin Doherty. Across seven states surveyed, Republicans held on average a five-point advantage in party ID, but voters favored Democrats on the generic vote for AG 47% to 45% on average. It's another sign of the potential reach of a Democratic wave in November — including in longtime red states.
- In Arizona, Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen 50% to 43%. In Kansas, Democrat Chris Mann leads Republican incumbent Kris Kobach 49% to 45%, despite an electorate that identifies as Republican by an 18-point margin. Democrats also lead by seven points in Wisconsin and three points in Georgia, Michigan and Nevada, while the race in Iowa is within the margin of error. See the memo
IT’S TAXING: Google co-founder Sergey Brin has become a political force in California trying to defeat the proposed billionaire tax, POLITICO’s Will McCarthy and Jeremy White report. Brin has spent about 40 times what he’s invested in politics in the previous two decades, including a $100 million effort against the proposed tax and millions more for ballot measures to invalidate the tax. “They’ve awakened him,” one consultant said. “He wants to be a political player.” BET ON IT: The first criminal case on prediction market betting is heading to trial, and it could pave the way for more prosecutions as the industry rapidly grows, POLITICO’s Erica Orden reports. The case centers on whether U.S. Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke used confidential information to bet on Polymarket on the capture of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. If the district judge lets the case move forward, it could spur more similar cases.
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A message from OpenAI: 
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel yesterday, just eight days before the country’s elections, Axios’ Barak Ravid scoops. Trump backed Netanyahu’s reelection, but Vance declined to do so yesterday, saying he’s “not getting involved,” POLITICO’s Alex Gangitano writes.
- War report: Iran is doing its own maximum pressure campaign, escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz with the hope that conflict and high gas prices can “punish” Trump and create leverage ahead the midterms, WaPo’s Susannah George reports.
2. TO PUTIN, WITH LOVE: As tensions fray with Ukraine, the Trump administration hasn’t approved the latest transfers of Patriot missiles the country needs to protect from Russian attacks, WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum and colleagues report. GOP lawmakers incensed by the dismissal of Ukraine are searching for possible next steps if Trump doesn’t change course, POLITICO’s Mark Satter and Leo Shane III write. 3. DRIP DRIP DRIP: Nevada GOP candidate David Flippo’s campaign credited a dead woman from a powerful local family on a donation, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and Olivia Beavers scoop. A $7,000 donation from Marilynn Mack was reattributed in part to her mother, Joyce Mack, who died in 2024. Filippo’s campaign chalked it up to a clerical error and amended the donation. 4. TRAIL MIX: A new GOP-aligned super PAC, Enough Promises Ohio, has tripled its money in the Ohio Senate race to boost a long-shot socialist candidate and spoil Democrat Sherrod Brown’s campaign, POLITICO’s Jason Beeferman reports. … Trump is churning out promises on investments in Alaska in the final stretch of its competitive Senate race, but it’s a gamble for turnout — especially if the investments don’t materialize, POLITICO’s Scott Waldman writes. 5. CUTTING DEEP: Battleground Democrats are coalescing behind a health care-related line of attack, bashing the GOP’s deep cuts to Medicaid in their megalaw last year, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein report. Republicans including Maine Sen. Susan Collins are playing defense by touting the rural health fund created with the law.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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THE POLITICS OF A COFFEE — They’re calling it Pastelito-gate. Evidently for many Cuban exiles, where politicians grab a cafecito in Miami is that serious, Playbook’s Ali Bianco writes in. After House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries joined Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, who’s running in the closely watched 27th District, for a coffee at the Cuban exile-owned Cao Bakery, conservative Cubans tore into the bakery for hosting them and accused them of supporting socialism. The attacks spread to Vicky Bakery — another local spot founded under the same Cao family, but now owned and operated completely separately. The controversy was such that both bakeries had to post public statements disavowing socialism. Cao Bakery stated they “didn’t know” Rodriguez’s quick visit would become a press moment with the minority leader (who does not identify as a socialist) and acknowledged the event “hurts.” Vicki Bakery had to distance itself from Cao Bakery. And topping it all off, GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar then posted a photo at Vicky Bakery and is slamming the episode as a disqualifier against Rodriguez. MEDIAWATCH — “Jon Stewart to Stay at ‘The Daily Show’ Through the 2028 Election,” by NYT’s John Koblin: “Jon Stewart is staying with ‘The Daily Show’ through the next presidential election. Comedy Central announced on Monday that Mr. Stewart signed a new deal that will keep him as host of the late-night show for one day a week through December 2028.” OUT AND ABOUT — The 13th annual America Abroad Media Awards took place last night at the Fairmont Hotel, honoring the Netflix series “The Diplomat,” Saudi actress Fatima Al Banawi, Sir Niall Ferguson and G42 and Bee:wild's AI for Good Initiative. Former Amb. Jim Jeffrey, Morgan Ortagus and former Amb. Bill Burns, who joined by video, presented the award for “The Diplomat” to creator Debora Cahn and actors Ali Ahn and Ato Essandoh. Other presenters included Brett McGurk, Adrienne Arsht and Elliott Abrams. SPOTTED: Jacob Helberg, John Jovanovic, Brendan Hanrahan, UAE Amb. Yousef Al Otaiba, German Amb. Jens Hanefeld, Amos Hochstein, Aaron Lobel, Esin Erkan, Marty Edelman, Daphne Oz, Yitz Applbaum, Elliot Ackerman, Lea Ackerman, Jennifer Isham, Chris Isham, Juan Zarate, Jonathan Greenblatt, Shaista Mahmood, Ray Mahmood, Levi Shemtov, Barak Ravid, Jason Rezaian, Yeganeh Rezaian and Kylie Atwood. TRANSITIONS — Mary Elizabeth Taylor is joining Block as head of Americas public policy and government relations. She most recently worked at Chainalysis and is a State Department, Trump White House and Mitch McConnell alum. … Karina Lipsman has joined defense AI company Modern Intelligence as VP of government relations. She previously worked at Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. ENGAGED — Reid Dagul, special assistant to the president in the White House Office of Legislative Affairs, and Katie Wilson, director of operations for Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), got engaged last Thursday at the Occidental. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Josh Rogin, a global security analyst for WaPo Intelligence, and Ali Rogin, justice correspondent for PBS News Hour, on Friday welcomed Samuel Abraham Rogin, who came in at 8lbs 10oz. He joins big sister Anne. Instapic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: CIA Director John Ratcliffe … former VP Kamala Harris … Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) … Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) … former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis … Arthel Neville … Greg Lowman of Fidelity … John Grandy … Michael Vazquez of Grindr … Ann Gerhart … AARP’s Khelan Bhatia … Anneke Green … POLITICO’s Jean Chemnick and Saqib Rahim … Hanna van Loon of the American Conservation Coalition … Lamia Rezgui … Ramón Correa-Colón of the Institute of Internal Auditors … Katherine DePalma … Tom Kahn of American University … Pablo Manríquez … NYT’s Matt Apuzzo … Ali Isse of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) office … Christie Boyden … Checkmate Government Relations’ Townes Holland … Chuck McCutcheon … Eliza Relman Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord.
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A message from OpenAI: Using ChatGPT to detect wildfires early.
Detecting a wildfire early can mean the difference between containment and catastrophe. That’s what SensoRy AI is built for. After seeing the devastation of the 2018 Camp Fire in fifth grade, Ryan Honary thought there had to be a better way. He turned that thought into a science project, using a few wires, a heat detector, and a hair dryer. Five years later, that science project became SensoRy AI, a wildfire detection system that identifies fires at ignition and immediately alerts firefighters and officials. ChatGPT then translates complex sensor data into clear, actionable alerts responders can act on. Today, SensoRy AI is being used by the Laguna Beach Fire Department and deployed across three Southern California cities. It has already detected fires in the field and is expanding to more than 100 sensors across the state. Explore the story. |
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