| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| 
President Joe Biden and congressional leaders are set to meet next week in hopes of finding a way to hike the debt ceiling and avoid economic ruin. | J. Scott Applewhite, File/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | PLEADING THE 25TH — “Is It Time for a Constitutional Amendment to Oust Incapacitated Senators?” by Joanne Kenen for POLITICO Magazine: “Questions about DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s future underscore the limited options available for easing out aging senators.” — ICYMI: “Feinstein ‘hopeful’ she can return to Senate next week, Schumer notes say,” by Katherine Tully-McManus and Nicholas Wu … “AOC says Feinstein’s refusal to retire is ‘causing great harm’ to US courts,” by the Guardian’s Martin Pengelly … Rep. AYANNA PRESSLEY (D-Mass.) also expressed support for Feinstein’s resignation, per GBH News’ Saraya Wintersmith. NOT-SO REALITY TV — “‘My job is not nearly as sexy’: The hits and misses of Netflix’s ‘The Diplomat,’” by Nahal Toosi and Rosa Prince: “State Department employees around the world have been bingeing ‘The Diplomat,’ a new Netflix show starring KERI RUSSELL. And many of them find it preposterous — and utterly amusing.” DEBT LIMIT REALITY CHECK — With the nation set to default on its payments as soon as June 1, President JOE BIDEN and congressional leaders are set to meet next week in hopes of finding a way to hike the debt ceiling and avoid economic ruin. But as key leaders took stock of the newly accelerated deadline yesterday, expectations for the Oval Office confab rapidly diminished. Expect the staring contest, in fact, to continue well into May — testing the nerves of political leaders, Wall Street investors and everyday Americans alike. A fundamental clash of perspectives is driving the impasse. For Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and fellow House Republicans, the ball is in Biden and Democrats’ court after uniting around a GOP debt ceiling proposal last week. It’s on them, in their view, to come down off their clean-hike demands and negotiate. “The Senate and the President need to get to work — and soon,” McCarthy said Monday. But Democrats are still convinced they have the upper hand, believing that it’s McCarthy who has to come off his position. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER yesterday insisted that Republicans had to start bargaining down from the House-passed proposal, which trades a yearlong debt limit hike with deep spending cuts and the reversal of key Biden initiatives. “This is not a plan,” the New York Democrat said when asked about the House proposal. “This is a hard-right-wing wish list that everyone knows has no chance of passing.”
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Learn about the new electric fleet. | | | Against that backdrop, various players are testing potential off-ramps — each of them problematic: — In the House, Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES revealed yesterday that a quietly filed shell bill could in theory be used to try to make an end-run around McCarthy. As reported by NYT’s Carl Hulse, Democrats started the process to launch a discharge petition targeting that “Swiss Army knife” measure, which could be amended with a debt patch.
- The problem: There aren’t the votes to discharge anything, with a number of moderate GOP lawmakers already panning the idea as Democratic leaders refuse to negotiate. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), for one, told CNN’s Manu Raju he had zero “appetite for a ‘my way or the highway’ stance.” Furthermore, Hulse notes, even in a best-case scenario, “the measure could take until June 12 or 13 to clear Congress,” according to a U.S. Chamber of Commerce analysis.
— At the White House, NYT’s Jim Tankersley reports that aides continue to explore whether the administration can unilaterally continue paying the nation’s bills even if Congress refuses to act. The idea, once deemed unthinkable even by Democratic administrations, would mean invoking a provision of the 14th Amendment, which says that “the validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned.”
- The problem: Any attempt to circumvent Congress would be subject to swift legal challenge, leaving the question ultimately in the hands of a conservative Supreme Court, and it would invite potentially ferocious political blowback for the Biden administration. Meanwhile, any attempt to skirt the debt ceiling would invite chaos in the financial markets. Even in the best-case scenario, Tankersley notes, it’s “likely to cause a surge in short-term borrowing costs because investors would demand a premium to buy debt that could be invalidated by a court.”
— In the Senate, Republicans are looking to two familiar faces — Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) — to break down the partisan logjam. As our colleague Burgess Everett writes this morning, the GOP’s thinking is that the two moderates could force Democrats to the negotiating table, allowing one of the chamber’s familiar “gangs” to swoop in and cut a deal. Manchin recently popped by McCarthy’s office, while Sinema “has quietly dined with McCarthy and signaled her hopes for a negotiated solution to GOP senators,” Burgess reports.
- The problem: The Senate leadership, let alone its rank-and-file, are on the sidelines — at least for now — as Republicans seek to empower McCarthy. (As Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL put it bluntly yesterday, “There is no solution in the Senate.”) There’s also no guarantee that the type of deals Manchinema forged in the last Congress could pass muster in a more conservative House.
— And on both sides of the Capitol, lawmakers are openly floating the idea of punting the issue for anywhere between a few weeks and a few months. Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) told PBS’s Lisa Desjardins that he’d be open to a 30-day extension if the White House is in bona fide negotiations. Meanwhile, Rep. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-Pa.), the top House Budget Committee Democrat, told Bloomberg TV that he’d be open to linking the debt deadline with the Sept. 30 appropriations deadline. “It would allow a little more breathing room,” he said.
- The problem: Schumer rejected a stopgap yesterday, and it’s unclear if Republicans would accept even a brief extension without some sort of concession from Democrats. Furthermore, even a small debt limit increase or suspension has historically allowed the Treasury Department to replenish its “extraordinary measures” capacity, making it all but impossible to pinpoint a new deadline.
Given that menu of flawed alternatives, genuine bipartisan negotiations could start looking pretty appealing by the end of the month. But the big unanswered question of the moment is: What will end the staring contest? Will it be pressure from the business community or a financial market freakout? Will frontline Republican or Democratic lawmakers start to get nervous and band together to force action? Or, like STEPH CURRY dropping 50 in Game 7, will some veteran player swoop in to save the day? Could McConnell reprise the role he played more than a decade ago, cutting a deal with Biden to avoid default? What about Rep. PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.), the House Financial Services Committee chair who we hear is watching the back and forth closely? Or maybe the leaders of the Problem Solvers Caucus, whose proposal to set up an outside fiscal commission has attracted support from dozens of centrist Republicans? Right now, we only know this: We’re still a ways away from any savior showing up.
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| | BIDEN’S WEDNESDAY:
11:45 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief, with VP KAMALA HARRIS also in attendance.
12:45 p.m.: Biden and Harris will have lunch together.
6:30 p.m.: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will host a dinner for Combatant Commanders.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1 p.m.
HARRIS’ WEDNESDAY:
5:15 p.m.: The VP will participate in a moderated conversation at the White House Asian American & Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Forum.
THE SENATE is in. Members will participate in the annual reading of MARTIN LUTHER KING JR.’s “Letter from Birmingham Jail” at 3:45 p.m. Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM and EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN will testify before Appropriations subcommittees at 10 a.m.
THE HOUSE is out. | | | | | | DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Members of the Writers Guild of America picket outside an entrance to Warner Bros. Studios on Tuesday, May 2, in Burbank, Calif. | Chris Pizzello/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH THE REELECT ROLLOUT — “Biden, Harris planning 1st 2024 fundraisers as soon as next week,” by Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt: “Some of the events being planned for Biden include a reception and dinner that could take place in New York City on May 10, the people said. … Harris, meanwhile, is being scheduled for what will likely be her own first fundraising event for the campaign on May 12 in the key swing state of Georgia.” DON VS. RON — “‘The DeSantis people are rookies’: Even Trump critics say he’s running circles around DeSantis,” by Sally Goldenberg and Meridith McGraw: “It’s a campaign operation characterized by an unusual level of organization and discipline — one that’s chipping away at his likely chief rival before he even jumps in the race.” THE DEBATE DEBATE — Trump is considering skipping the first one or two Republican presidential primary debates, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan scoop. “In private comments to aides and confidants in recent weeks, Mr. Trump has made it clear that he does not want to breathe life into his Republican challengers by sharing the stage with them,” they write. Another choice detail: “Trump has told advisers that the second debate is a nonstarter for him because it will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. The chairman of the library’s board of trustees, FREDERICK J. RYAN JR., also serves as the publisher and chief executive officer of The Washington Post, a fact that Mr. Trump regularly brings up.” Related read: “Republicans aim to disrupt general election debates amid Trump complaints,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey: “Top Republicans summoned the bureau chiefs of the five major television networks to the party’s Capitol Hill headquarters this spring for a secret meeting aimed at breaking the country’s 35-year-old system for presidential debates.” THE COMEBACK CONTINUES — CNN announced Monday that it will host a primetime town hall with Trump at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire next Wednesday with Kaitlan Collins moderating, marking the former president’s first appearance on the network since the 2016 campaign. More from CNN The counterpoint: “There remains little value in broadcasting Trump’s comments live,” by WaPo’s Philip Bump MORE POLITICS BY THE NUMBERS — “Black turnout dropped sharply in 2022 midterms, Census survey finds,” by WaPo’s Scott Clement and Lenny Bronner LOOK WHO’S BACK — “Former Nevada assemblyman, election denier Jim Marchant plans U.S. Senate run,” by the Nevada Independent’s Naoka Foreman and Gabby Birenbaum THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “The AI political campaign is here,” by CNN’s Donie O'Sullivan and Yahya Abou-Ghazala THE WHITE HOUSE DUCKLO AND COVER — As former Biden hand TJ DUCKLO prepares to return to the fold in a new role on the reelection campaign, some of his former colleagues are standing behind the previously ousted aide, while others are torching him with rare fiery quotes on the record. “It’s hard to believe that in the post-#MeToo, anti-bullying world we live in, that the president’s team would be this tone-deaf,” former first lady press secretary MICHAEL LaROSA told our colleagues Lauren Egan and Eli Stokols. (Ducklo declined to comment.) Read more in West Wing Playbook and subscribe AT 1600 PENN — “Muslim New Jersey mayor denied entry to White House calls for Biden end to ‘discriminatory’ practices,” by Daniel Han CONGRESS COMING ATTRACTIONS — The Senate Banking Committee will bring in the former CEOs of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank for a hearing on May 16, the panel announced yesterday. More from AP KNOWING HILLARY SCHOLTEN — “Rep. Hillary Scholten wants Democrats to reclaim faith, freedom and ‘compassionate conservatism,’” by The 19th News’ Grace Panetta KNOWING JAMAAL BOWMAN — “From TikTok to '90s rap, Jamaal Bowman is learning to raise his voice in Congress,” by NBC’s Scott Wong
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| | | | The McCain Institute will convene its 10th annual Sedona Forum on May 5-6, featuring lawmakers, journalists, military leaders, business executives, and more. This year’s theme, “Indispensable Power,” will examine the diplomatic, military, and economic means employed to protect democracy, human rights, and the global competitive edge. Established by Senator John McCain, the Sedona Forum is held each spring in the red rock country of Sedona, Arizona, to advance the mission of the McCain Institute – fighting for democracy, human dignity, and security. Visit TheSedonaForum.org to register for the livestream today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Doug Emhoff and Kamala Harris are a house divided for the Lakers-Warriors series. (Emhoff’s Lakers took a 1-0 lead late last night.) Chuck Schumer has a lot of street cred with Gen Z now. SPOTTED at the Raben Group’s launch event for its new Faith Strategies Group at the Washington City Church of the Brethren yesterday: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Derrick Harkins, Robert Jones and Nikki Toyama-Szeto. Pic FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Mari Manoogian is the new political director for The Next 50. She previously was a state representative in Michigan, served on state Sen. Mallory McMorrow's political team and was a senior adviser at New Blue Interactive. — Swing Left is bringing on a handful of new staffers: LeJamiel “Lee” Goodall will be managing director and previously was senior adviser to the GSA Deputy Administrator Katy Kale. Dan Kalik will be head of politics and strategy and previously was senior political adviser at MoveOn. Jade Tacka will be head of development and previously was senior finance adviser for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Michelle Alwardt will be operations lead and previously was managing director at Scale for Change. — Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group is bringing on former Egyptian diplomats Waguih Hanafi, Karim Haggag and Mohamed Hanafi as senior advisers as it launches a new strategic partnership with Cairo-based LYNX Strategic Business Advisors. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Josh Black is now senior director for multilateral affairs on the NSC staff at the White House. He was previously senior adviser to U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Dan Cluchey and Sarah Gouda have left the White House to join Fenway as principals. Cluchey most recently was senior presidential speechwriter to President Joe Biden. Gouda most recently was deputy director of speechwriting for VP Kamala Harris. TRANSITIONS — Jay Rhoden is now comms director for Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.). He previously was digital press secretary for Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.). … Reed Powell is now a legislative assistant for Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.). He most recently was a professional staff member for the House Communications Standards Commission and is a Jody Hice and Stephanie Bice campaign alum. … Lavin Gartland is now chief of staff at GOAPC. She previously was president and CEO of Lavin Gartland LLC. … Darcy Hirsh is joining Interfaith Alliance as senior director of policy and advocacy. She previously was associate VP for public affairs and government relations at The Jewish Federations of North America. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Katherine Haddad, senior director of government affairs at Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and Raaed Haddad, director of federal government affairs at the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America, welcomed John Awwad Haddad on April 12. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) (8-0) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) … NBC/MSNBC’s Willie Geist … Caroline Critchfield Hunter of Stand Together … Ben Ginsberg … Scott Kamins of Kamins Consulting … former Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) … POLITICO’s Matt Friedman, Anna Stubbs and David Nicks … Chip Rogers of the American Hotel and Lodging Association … Alex Loehr … SKDK’s Stephen Krupin ... Greg Clugston ... Linda Kenyon … Vic Goetz of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) office … NBC’s Stephen Labaton … Claudia Russo … Chris Bodenner … ACT | The App Association’s Chelsea Thomas … Ella Yates … Julia Convertini … Lindsey Kolb … Caitlin Peruccio … Sam Azzarelli of Firehouse Strategies … Tim Mulvey … Paul Kangas … Democratic strategist Max Burns (36) … Seth Flaxman of Democracy Works … Jason Killian Meath … former national climate adviser Gina McCarthy … Solvay’s Michael Blume … Charter’s Catherine Bohigian … Avi Weinryb … West End Strategy Team’s Carolyn Davis and Eleanor Donohue (24) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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