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By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss why President Donald Trump really needs a peace deal in Iran tonight … and what his chief of staff Susie Wiles will be advising Republican operatives at today’s strategy summit.
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Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, fresh off a sun-baked weekend in beautiful West Virginia, where the kids hunted for salamanders in an icy mountain lake and your author discovered the joys of hot pepper jelly. You’ll be unsurprised to hear the jar’s already half-empty … We’ll just have to go back soon. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Why a shift in tone on gas prices won’t save the GOP this fall. — Speaker Mike Johnson’s math headache is about to get worse. — Tim Walz’s next move … and why JD Vance is not impressed.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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DAY 52: We’re in week eight of Trump’s “little excursion” in Iran. It now looks certain the fallout will dominate world politics for months — perhaps years — to come. Brace, brace: Across Europe, Asia and Africa, governments are preparing for a sustained energy shock, with related fallout likely to include jet fuel shortages, food scarcity and spiralling inflation. Any optimism of a swift resolution to the crisis has long since dissipated, and around the world authorities are starting to recommend short- and long-term shifts — fuel efficiencies, homeworking, cheaper public transport, investment in (Chinese-built) renewable energy sources. Here in the U.S. — where we’re shielded from the worst of it — the most visible impact remains the price of gas at the pump. But here too, the administration is starting to prepare a longer-term strategy. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s admission on CNN that it “could be next year” before gas prices return to below $3-a-gallon sent alarm bells ringing for Republicans in battleground districts, for obvious reasons — that means after the midterm elections on Nov. 3. This was no slip of the tongue. Last week, Wright told Semafor prices will remain “high and maybe even rising” until “meaningful ship traffic” returns to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News last Sunday that gas prices could be “around the same” or “maybe a little bit higher” when we hit election season this fall. Reminder: This is the same president who initially said he could end the war “in two or three days.” That quickly became “four to five weeks,” which in turn got stretched to six. But Trump always insisted oil prices would quickly return to normal, once he decided to end the conflict. We’re now seeing an administration trying to prepare the public for more drawn-out effects. Brace yourselves: Strategists in and around the White House are under no illusions about how this is likely to play out. “The rhetoric around this stuff matters way less than the reality,” one person close to the White House tells Dasha. “It either will be or it won’t be. If we don't see the $3 gallon of gas, we’re gonna get killed.” It’s hard to argue. A Quinnipiac poll last week showed almost two-thirds of Americans (65 percent) blame Trump for the spike in gas prices, including 73 percent of independent voters. Trump has tied himself personally to a painful and highly visible cost of living increase, at a time when millions of Americans were already feeling the pinch. It's also an unusual one. Economic shocks are normally too complex to pin on any one politician. In 2022, President Joe Biden could credibly claim he was responsible for neither the Covid after-shocks, nor the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which together triggered America’s last inflationary crisis (even if Republicans could credibly claim his spending policies made things worse). Biden was blamed regardless.
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No wonder White House chief of staff Susie Wiles is convening a summit of GOP operatives at the Waldorf Astoria in D.C. today, as West Wing Playbook reported. The meeting at the former Trump Hotel offers a much-needed opportunity to discuss a midterms strategy blown off course by Trump’s overseas adventures. As Dasha predicts on today’s Playbook Podcast, the best Republican strategy in the current circumstances could be to go as negative as possible against the (still widely unpopular) Democratic Party. In the meantime, Trump could really do with a breakthrough on Iran, as his negotiators prepare to return to Pakistan for more peace talks. We’re still awaiting final confirmation, but the expectation is that a team led by VP JD Vance and supported by chief envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — a duo now referred to in diplomatic circles as “Witkush” — will arrive in Islamabad for talks this evening. The two-week ceasefire expires tomorrow night. But but but: At the time of writing, Iran has yet to confirm it’s even taking part. Once again, Tehran is flexing its muscles, just as it did over the weekend with the abrupt reclosure of the strait, only hours after Trump said it had reopened. This is a regime that clearly believes it is holding powerful cards. Trump, by contrast, continues to oscillate between threats of mass violence and claims of an imminent breakthrough. A war of attrition: “Tehran will not bargain away its sources of leverage,” the conservative, Trump-critical Cato Institute’s Jon Hoffman tells Dasha. “Tehran believes it is creating a new status quo between it and Washington. Tehran likely feels it has not inflicted a sufficient level of pain to keep this [war] from happening again and will therefore want real concessions and guarantees from the United States during negotiations. Absent that, they'll return to war, since this is a war of attrition they are better suited to win. All they have to do to win is survive.” Counterpoint: Trump insists his blockade will quickly bring Iran to its knees — claiming over the weekend that the Iranian economy is losing $500 million a day. Last night, the U.S. Navy opened fire on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship to disable its engines after it apparently refused to stop despite repeated warnings. “Helicopter-borne Marines then swooped down and seized the vessel” in the Arabian Sea, the NYT reports. “It was the first time a vessel was reported to have tried to evade the U.S.-imposed blockade on any ship entering or exiting Iranian ports since it took effect last week.” Trump seemed pleased with the outcome … but oil prices soared higher last night following the incident, and experts predicted it would make ships even less likely to brave the strait. FURTHER READING — How it’s playing: “They’re Young. They’re Conservative. And They’re Split Over the War,” by NYT’s Troy Closson: “[In] nearly two dozen interviews with current and recent college students, a sharp divide emerged over the war with Iran — a divide that could imperil that support. Most of them led conservative political organizations and voted for the first time in 2024, for Mr. Trump. … young Republicans disagreed over whether the ongoing conflict represents a milestone for a bold administration — or the nadir of one that has lost the plot.”
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ON THE HILL NUMBERS GAME: Democrats’ newest member of Congress, Analilia Mejia, will be sworn in by Speaker Mike Johnson this evening following her victory in last Thursday’s New Jersey special election. Her arrival in the House will cut even further into Johnson’s razor-thin vote margin ahead of a series of legislative battles in the coming days. FIGHT ON, FISA: The battle over a government spy law — given a two-week extension last Friday — is looking like a serious crisis for Johnson. Republicans have only a handful of legislative days to find a new path to extend Section 702 of FISA, but so far the White House and GOP leaders haven’t found a way to unite their divided conference, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and colleagues report. “I don’t know how we solve it,” one House Republican told our colleagues. And while some House GOP members think they can get a multiyear extension over the finish line, others are skeptical much will advance before the new deadline of April 30. This could get complicated: If the House can’t figure out a plan, it may fall to the Senate — which already has its hands full this week with a budget blueprint to advance the reconciliation process and reopen DHS. “Senate Republicans will still be able to move the budget resolution this week as planned,” our POLITICO colleagues write. “But House Republicans will need to either quickly resolve their differences over the future of Section 702 or risk this policy fight colliding next week with expected disagreements over the scope of the reconciliation package.” Coming attractions: Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham is expected to release the budget text early this week, with an initial vote as soon as Wednesday. Also watch for the ongoing saga of potential expulsion votes — the House Ethics Committee is expected to release its decision on Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick tomorrow, and a vote could come soon after. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress BUT TOMORROW’S MAIN EVENT … will focus on Kevin Warsh, whose nomination hearing in the Senate Banking Committee is scheduled for Tuesday morning. He may yet face an immovable object in Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who vowed to block any nomination to the Federal Reserve while the government probe into Chair Jerome Powell carries on. Senators and aides say Tillis, who’s on his way out, is in his “YOLO era” and won’t stand down from the fight, WSJ’s Lindsay Wise writes. “If you’re asking me if I think that Tillis is bluffing, the short answer is no. Long answer is hell no,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told the WSJ.
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TRAIL MIX FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Minnesota moves: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is today launching Small Town PAC, a new federal PAC to recruit and support Democratic candidates and expand the map, Playbook's Adam Wren scoops. The name references his time representing a rural, conservative district in Congress. Small Town PAC is one of the first indicators of how Walz plans to use his platform and fundraising prowess ahead of the midterms and 2028, a person familiar with his plans told Adam. In a statement shared with Playbook, Walz had sharp words for VP JD Vance. “Republicans like JD Vance like to portray their small-town neighbors as petty, resentful, and small-minded. I disagree. I think the problem facing small towns are Republicans like JD Vance.” Walz said he plans “to find some teachers, some nurses, some laborers, vets, and young people in small towns across the country who can represent their communities better than Silicon Valley can.” The VP’s office hit back: “The problem facing many small towns in Minnesota is that Tim Walz gives their money to fraudulent daycares,” a Vance spokesperson said in a statement. CASH DASH: The NRCC raised $47.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, a haul the group is calling the “strongest first quarter in its history,” POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scoops. The figure includes a whopping $28.1 million from March alone. AD IT UP: VoteVets, the Democratic super PAC, is rolling out its third TV ad backing Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek in the state's contested Democratic Senate primary with state Sen. Zach Wahls, Adam writes in. The ad, "For Iowa," is part of a $900,000 ad buy and hits Trump over what it describes as “family kickbacks, a gifted private jet from the Middle East, and $4 billion for him; Medicaid cuts, tariffs and sky-high prices for us.” Watch the ad LET THE BATTLE BEGIN: Democratic officials are kicking off a swing through five major cities that are finalists to host the party’s 2028 convention — Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver and Philadelphia, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports. “Already, whisper campaigns are pointing out the potential flaws of each finalist: Atlanta doesn't have enough union hotels, Chicago hosted the convention in 2024, Boston signals ‘liberal elite,’ Denver isn't in a swing state — and Philadelphia, the 2016 host, is a reminder of the year Hillary Clinton lost the election.”
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BEST OF THE REST WHAT THE FBI DIRECTOR IS UP TO THIS MORNING: Suing the Atlantic, Kash Patel announced on Fox News, following Sarah Fitzpatrick's buzzy Friday night article that described an air of chaos around his leadership. (You probably saw the accusations of heavy drinking, unexplained absence and more.) Patel bagged a slot on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” — which just happens to be one of Trump’s favorite shows — to vehemently deny the charges, telling Maria Bartiromo he’ll sue The Atlantic for defamation today. But the rumors around his position continue to grow. SPEAKING OF WHICH: The ongoing watchdog probe into Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and her closest aides, which has already led to multiple resignations, could mean yet another hole in the Cabinet for Trump to fill. The probe has pulled in dozens of DOL staffers for interviews and become a “distraction” for the agency, POLITICO’s Nick Niedzwiadek writes. “Trump has begun mulling whether to remove Chavez-DeRemer and other top officials in recent weeks,” he reports. “The outcome of [the] investigation could force the White House’s hand.” PAYBACK TIME: The refund system for businesses that paid tariffs since ruled illegal by the Supreme Court kicks off today — meaning importers and brokers can start claiming refunds as of 8 a.m. via Customs and Border Protection, per AP’s Mae Anderson. CBP said in court filings that over 330,000 importers paid a total of $166 billion on over 53 million shipments since Trump introduced the tariffs. SPORTS BLINK: “How the World Cup got so complicated,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Miller and Ry Rivard: “[As] kickoff approaches, an unexpected convergence of threats — from labor strife and high ticket prices to geopolitical turmoil and culture-war politics fanned by Donald Trump — is turning the event into a nationwide stress test for the governmental institutions charged with pulling it off.”
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POLITICO Pro Policy challenges are evolving — and the stakes keep rising. POLITICO Pro delivers authoritative reporting, expert analysis, and powerful tools to help professionals understand and anticipate the business of government, in Washington and beyond. Learn More about POLITICO Pro. |
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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COUNTDOWN TO 250 — Trump’s “Garden of Heroes,” an expansive sculpture garden to mark America’s 250th anniversary, is unlikely to get even its first statue in time for July Fourth, CNN’s Sunlen Serfaty reports. “Foundries and artists from across the country who applied to work on the massive, classical-style, sculptures – which would take months to build – haven’t heard from the Trump administration. And plans for the garden haven’t been submitted to the Commission of Fine Arts or the National Capital Planning Commission — two government agencies whose approval is needed before it can be built.” TRANSITIONS — Former Rep. Paul Ryan is joining the strategic advisory board for EdgeRunner AI, a defense tech startup, POLITICO’s Tyler Katzenberger scoops for Pros. … Dunn Isaacson Rhee is adding Danielle Conley and Jude Volek as partners. Both previously worked at Latham & Watkins, and Conley is a former deputy White House counsel and associate deputy AG. … Connor Lounsbury is now a senior media adviser for Middle Seat, which is expanding its TV practice. He previously worked for Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), and is a Wes Moore and Chrissy Houlahan alum. … … Samuel Gregg has been named president of the American Institute for Economic Research. He currently holds the Friedrich Hayek chair. … Rosie Wilson is now comms director for the House Ways and Means Committee under Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.). She previously worked for the House Republican Conference. … Rodericka Applewhaite is now rapid response director at Majority Democrats. She previously worked in the Biden White House, and is a Gretchen Whitmer and Pete Buttigieg alum. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — John Millerick, senior congressional liaison at the Australian Embassy and a Katie Porter and Henry Cuellar alum, and Michelle Millerick, VP of policy at the California Hospital Association, welcomed Olivia Honey Millerick on April 8. Pic — Jake Rubenstein and Caroline Cori Rubenstein, both Terry McAuliffe alums, welcomed Eloise “L. Louise” Elizabeth Rubenstein yesterday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) … Fox News’ Jennifer Griffin … Brett McGurk … NBC’s Carol Lee … WSJ’s Molly Ball … POLITICO’s David Siders, Shar Uddin and Jose Ramirez … Evan Smith … Colin Reed of South & Hill Strategies … Lee Moak … Floodlight’s Emily Holden … Kyle Feldscher … Emily Rodriguez … Lee Ferran … Josh Delaney … Tess Whittlesey … Lyft’s Heather Foster … Sarah Ferris … Marc Rotenberg of the Center for AI and Digital Policy … Conner Swanson … Ashley Woolheater … Ethan Susseles … Eric Bovim … Penta’s Melissa Manson … Patrick Collins … former Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) … Mary Springer … former Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) … Lindsey Mask … Zachary Baum … Rational 360’s Jay Hauck … Leon Harris … Denise Gitsham Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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