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By Irie Sentner
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Presented by
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THE CATCH-UP |
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THE LATEST CALLS: Democrat William Lawrence ousted GOP Rep. Tom Barrett in MI-07 … GOP Rep. Max Miller conceded to Democrat Brian Poindexter in OH-07 … Democrat Angela Gonzales-Torres ousted Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez in CA-34 … Democrat Randy Villegas ousted GOP Rep. David Valadao in CA-22 … Democrat Sean McCann ousted GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga in MI-04 … Democrat Christina Hines beat Republican Michael Bouchard in MI-10 … GOP Rep. and NRCC Chair Richard Hudson conceded his reelection bid (on his birthday) to Democrat Richard Ojeda in NC-09
YOUTH MOVEMENT: Democrats made massive gains in the midterms among young voters who’d swung hard to the right just two years ago. Can they keep them?
Voters between the ages 18-29 supported Democrats this cycle 70% to 28% — an overwhelming margin of more than 40 points and a 32-point shift from 2024, per NYT data. That trend was even more pronounced among young men, whom President Donald Trump targeted in 2024 and won with 56% of support. In Tuesday’s elections, the figures flipped: 58% of young men supported a Democratic House candidate, according to an analysis by Tufts’ CIRCLE.
The results represent a homecoming for Democrats of a group the party once considered among its most reliable voting blocs. But activists and analysts who spoke with Playbook today gave their party what’s becoming a familiar warning: they ought not take the shift for granted.
“We’ve been hearing just overwhelming dissatisfaction with both parties, and so I would really caution Democrats from assuming that this historic swing back in their direction means that all of these very movable young people are now loyal to them,” said Rachel Janfaza, who conducted nine focus groups with voters ages 17-33 this cycle.
But the returns could cement the ascendance of the young progressive activists in the party who backed younger, anti-establishment candidates that emerged victorious on Tuesday. Already, left-leaning Gen-Z-led groups are taking a victory lap as they start to amass congressional clout. And they’re cautioning that the Democratic old guard must work to realize their candidates’ campaign pledges in order to retain youth support heading into 2028.
“Now the onus is on Democratic leadership to respond to what is very clearly a mandate from voters across party lines to actually legislate with the urgency to tackle crises like affordability in the bold ways that voters actually want to see,” said Usamah Andrabi, communications director at Justice Democrats, citing Medicare for All, banning AI data centers and taxing billionaires. “If they want their majority to last more than one term, they now have to legislate and lead on these issues.”
That could intensify the generational and establishment clashes that have already roiled the party in recent years, particularly over corporate influence and support for Israel amid its war in Gaza. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries both appear on a glide path to becoming Democrats’ congressional leaders. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, another New York moderate, told POLITICO last night she intended to stay on as DSCC chair for another cycle. And Ken Martin told Playbook last night that he would “absolutely” remain DNC chair heading into 2028.
“We are sending people into office that, by and large, will be told that what they campaigned for is not possible,” said James Hernández, national co-chair of the Young Democratic Socialists of America. “The job of the movement is not necessarily to wait on whatever result we hear from Capitol Hill, but to provide a counterweight to that establishment to say ‘No, this is possible.’”
Last night’s results also amp up the pressure on Republicans to diagnose how and why they lost a demographic they’d nabbed so successfully in 2024 — and figure out a strategy to woo them back in 2028. And the knives are already out for Turning Point USA, the conservative youth voter engagement group that saw massive growth this year after the killing of its founder Charlie Kirk, yet still failed to stop the party’s Gen-Z leak.
“Turning Point needs a total revamp,” the influencer Cernovich wrote this morning in an expletive-ladened missive to his 1.4 million followers on X, urging the group to “Tell the donors it's Charlie’s vision going forward.”
Andrew Kolvet, a Turning Point USA spokesperson, attributed Republicans’ losses to the war with Iran, which he said on today’s “Charlie Kirk Show” had not “been properly sold to the American people.”
“This was a wave election year, and the wrong lesson to take is to stop doing the good things that make a significant impact in electoral results, namely chasing ballots in ground game and getting low-propensity voters out to the polls,” he told Playbook in an interview just after the show wrapped. “We should double down on those efforts, not blame them for not being enough to make up the margin in a wave year where the electorate swings 15 points to the left.”
THE OTHER BLOC BUSTERS: The historic landslide of Latino voters toward Democrats hit battleground after battleground Tuesday, crumbling the coalition that helped carry Trump to victory just one cycle ago, Playbook’s Ali Bianco and POLITICO’s Samuel Benson and Jessica Piper report. “This is an earthquake,” Democratic Latino operative Sergio Gonzalez told Ali. “Republicans were renting the Hispanic vote — yet governed like they owned it,” said Giancarlo Sopo, the GOP strategist behind Trump’s viral 2020 Spanish-language campaign jingle.
Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. This is Irie Sentner, heavily caffeinated and extremely amused by my X feed. Get in touch.
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Ryan Honary began developing wildfire detection technology as a fifth-grade science project. Years and many accolades later, that experiment became SensoRy AI—a wildfire detection system that uses ChatGPT to turn sensor data into clear, actionable alerts. Those alerts go straight to departments like Laguna Beach Fire Department, giving responders an early signal when a fire starts. Learn more.
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4 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. 2028 BEGINS: The starting gun for the White House sounded at midnight, and a freshly reelected Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is spiking the football — and already signaling his next race around the corner in a memo detailing his support for candidates across the map shared first with Playbook, Adam reports.
The memo is full of tells he’s eyeing a presidential bid: “This cycle was about more than just winning at home; it was about building a coalition of common-sense governance across the country. Governor Moore is in high demand in every type of district, everywhere in the country, no matter the region or the electorate,” it reads. Just in case that wasn’t clear enough, the memo ends with this in bold: Moore’s “dominant performance this cycle sends a clear message: he possesses the political muscle, the strategic discipline, and the popular mandate to lead Maryland — and help shape the national landscape — well into the future.” The memo
Meanwhile: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another name in the 2028 hopper, is pushing out a 75-page plan for the incoming blue Congress with ideas to address affordability and conduct strident oversight of the Trump administration, NBC’s Natasha Korecki reports. “I believe that on Day One — and I literally mean Day One — that they should begin to introduce legislation,” Pritzker told NBC. “I’m looking for very quick action.”
Just Vance: VP JD Vance was quick out of the gates to put more distance between himself and Trump’s war with Iran than he has before, blaming Republicans’ wipeout squarely on the conflict. “If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest,” Vance wrote in a post on X. “But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.” More from POLITICO’s Cheyenne Haslett and Ben Johansen
Ain’t no Sunshine: And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a bruising rebuke of his party’s performance, blaming everything from the Epstein files to members of Congress trading stocks, POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury and Riya Misra report from Tallahassee. “To call it a wave, I don’t think would be fully accurate,” DeSantis said this morning. “It’s the political equivalent of a meteor strike that went all around the United States, blue states, red states, everything in between.”
The stepback: The Democratic landslide was not just a rebuke of Trump but a political earthquake that could fundamentally transform the country’s electoral map, POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin writes in his latest column. Republicans’ path to 270 electoral votes appears considerably narrower, but the red-and-blue presidential map as we know it is crumbling too. “After a generation, it looks ossified — there’s just more swing states now,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa) said. “We had the same map for a quarter-century but that’s changed.”
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A message from OpenAI:
 
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2. SUCCESSION: Mike Johnson will not run to stay on as House GOP leader, setting up a contest between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan to lead the Republican conference, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy report. On a private call with staff this morning, the speaker said he had talked to Trump about the decision. He did not explicitly say whether he would be sworn in as a member in the next Congress or resign from his Louisiana seat.
Hours later, Jordan made his bid official, promising to establish a “Leadership team that is active and engaged, forward-thinking and straight-shooting.” And Scalise followed soon after: In a letter sent to House Republicans, Scalise highlighted the need for unity and a “clear vision and agenda” and said he’s “ready to lead on day one and chart our path back to the majority.”
More House contests: Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) launched her reelection bid as Republican conference chair, promising to “get back in the fight,” per Mia. … House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) has already begun making calls to remain Republican whip, Mia reports — but he has competition from Republican Study Committee Chair August Pfluger of Texas, who announced his intention to run for the position in a letter to colleagues this morning. … Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) formally announced his bid to retake the gavel of the Energy and Commerce Committee, per POLITICO’s Kelsey Brugger. … Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) is running to chair the House Transportation Committee, per POLITICO’s Sam Ogozalek.
3. BOLSONARO STEPS OUT: Flavio Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian presidential candidate who lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva last month, is slated to speak at a CPAC event in Mar-a-Lago on Thursday, according to details of the event obtained by POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman. It will be Bolsonaro’s first public appearance in the U.S. since he fled Brazil and landed in Florida amid multiple criminal probes targeting him. Trump is not expected to be in attendance on Thursday.
“This is a serious time in the fight against communism and its noxious lawfare and propaganda,” CPAC head Matt Schlapp said in a statement to Playbook. “CPAC is becoming the place where freedom fighters from around the globe come together to plot, plan, and support each other. We are honored that Flavio and Eduardo Bolsonaro will make time to address CPAC at its annual summit at Mar-a-Lago. The Bolsonaros have been through hell and back in their attempt to remove communists from power in Brazil. Sadly, America took a tragic turn toward socialism on Tuesday.
4. CULTURE WAR LATEST: The blue wave didn’t totally drown out down-ballot pushes on the right. The conservative movement to bar transgender athletes from women’s sports showed its message could resonate beyond Republican strongholds, POLITICO’s Bianca Quilantan reports. Voters in Arizona approved a ballot initiative further restricting transgender students from participating on sports teams that align with their gender identity. Similar measures in Colorado and Washington state are leading in early results, though votes are still being counted. In Nebraska, voters also added a ban to their state constitution.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The wife of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last year was paid by a top Washington consulting firm that did work on behalf of Lockheed Martin, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman reports. Jennifer Hegseth, a former longtime Fox News producer, was paid for consulting by Watchtower Strategy, according to Pete Hegseth’s annual financial disclosure report. She doesn’t list how much in income she made from the firm.
Watchtower is one of the top Trump-connected firms in Washington, offering strategic advice, advocacy and communication services. It was founded in January 2025 and includes former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Republican operatives Jeff Miller, Arthur Schwartz, Dan Conston and Brian O. Walsh.
Lockheed Martin was a client of Watchtower last year, POLITICO Influence reported. Asked if Lockheed still works with Watchtower, a spokesperson for Lockheed declined to directly answer but instead said they routinely work with a number of companies to support their business.
“It should be no surprise that a public affairs firm would want to work with one of the biggest former star producers at Fox News, the nation’s preeminent conservative news outlet,” a Watchtower spokesperson said in a statement. “Jen has assisted us in navigating conservative TV media and we appreciate her help. She has not interfaced with any clients nor does she provide any advice to Watchtower on defense matters.” The spokesperson declined to comment when asked if she still works for the firm.
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a statement: “Secretary Hegseth and his wife are in full compliance with all ethics laws and regulations, and their sole focus is serving our warfighters, President Trump, and the American people.” Jennifer Hegseth didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Jennifer Hegseth, the daughter of a Lockheed Martin executive, has been a highly visible Pentagon spouse. She also accompanied Hegseth to meetings with Republican senators as he was trying to win confirmation in the middle of a fight over his qualifications and an allegation of sexual assault that he denied.
PLAYING THE CLASSICS — Trump responded today to the midterms beatdown by calling the press in to view construction of the White House ballroom, POLITICO’s Cheyenne Haslett reports: “For 20 minutes, the president didn’t address the history-making renouncement of his administration that voters delivered Tuesday night. Instead, the president, standing in the construction site of the White House ballroom in front of a large beam, spoke to a crowd of construction workers about his many passion projects to ‘beautify Washington.’”
DSA IN THE DISTRICT — Janeese Lewis George won the D.C. mayoral election, but she is keeping her democratic socialist banner somewhat at bay. “During her victory speech, the mayor-elect made only a glancing reference to the DSA, thanking her ‘comrades’ for their support and otherwise repeating familiar pledges to fight for D.C. statehood, protect immigrant rights and preside over a government that works ‘as hard as’ working Washingtonians,” WaPo’s Paul Schwartzman reports.
Now comes the hard part: Executing her ambitious agenda “will be a challenge in a city facing a massive budget deficit, with a downtown still moribund three years after the pandemic and high interest rates discouraging new development. Whatever tax increases the new mayor may support to close the deficit will require the approval of D.C. Council members who themselves answer to constituents,” WaPo notes.
Up next: JLG has indicated she plans to stay on the city council through this year. When she leaves her post, it’ll set the stage for a special election, which could happen between mid-March to late June, City Cast DC’s Emma Uber writes. But with Robert White resigning his at-large council seat this week, that process will be a little different: “When a Democratic at-large member like White leaves, that member’s political party appoints an interim councilmember to fill in until the special election is held.”
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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord.
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