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By Jonathan Martin |
Presented by Kalshi |
With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Sunday morning. Where are the D.C. hotspots for gathering on election night? We want to hear from you — and maybe see you there. Give us all the tips (and don’t forget to send us good SPOTTEDs!): playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Danielle Brown, National Field Co-Director of Black Voters Matter, speaks about redistricting at the South Carolina Statehouse on Friday, May 8, 2026, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Collins) | Jeffrey Collins/AP |
TUPELO, Mississippi — The “Blacklash” has arrived. The first hint appeared in the 2025 elections, when Democrats won larger-than-expected margins in Virginia and New Jersey. Then, beginning early this year, the turnout numbers in primaries were unmistakable. And now, the story is blaring in neon as early and absentee votes soar. Black voters are fired up, ready to go and poised to turn a good night on Tuesday for Democrats into a Blue Tsunami. Their motivation can be traced to President Donald Trump’s return to power and then back-to-back events: the White House-led effort to dilute minority-heavy districts to elect more Republicans and the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act. “Trump has tried to neuter them,” former President Bill Clinton told me about Black voters. “You know, he did all that reapportionment, which really infuriated them. And everybody knows that he’s turned the Justice Department into a political operation, not a justice operation.” I spoke to the former president Friday night. He had just addressed the capacity crowd of a Tupelo church-turned-event-center. As Clinton explained, there’s something else at play — an unmistakable and all-too-familiar whiff in the air. “Historically discriminated-against groups have an uncanny feel detector to them,” as he put it. Since the start of October, I have visited Florida, Texas, Georgia, Mississippi and South Carolina, states that for the most part I never thought I’d set foot in during a midterm election. Battleground Texarkana was not on my bingo card. Yet the combination of poor or mediocre GOP candidates, better-than-average Democrats and, most of all, the sour national political environment for Republicans has surprisingly thrust these states into play. The biggest driver, for Black people and everybody else, is of course the cost of living. Gas and groceries are the same forbidding price for every voter. Yet the policies making life less affordable can feel targeted at Black Americans, especially in working-class communities. There is something deeper going on, though. I began to glimpse it when I visited a Black church with David Jolly, the Florida Democrat running for governor, at the start of the month. And I’ve seen it in every state since: angry but energized Black voters — many surprisingly young — showing up at events. It’s a shift from 2024, when Trump roughly doubled his share of young Black men. But now, with Trump in office, many of the Black voters I met were voicing frustration with the Republicans in power. I warned Republicans in a column earlier this year about the unintended consequences, namely galvanizing Black voters, they were tempting with their redistricting push. It was bound to infuriate Black Americans and particularly those community leaders already uneasy with the shift in power in Washington.
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By casting far more ballots than expected by strategists in either party, Black voters are fundamentally shifting the midterm landscape, nudging swing states left and making red states suddenly competitive. With white votes lagging so far, Republicans are confronting an increasingly dire scenario — mobilize their conservative base on Election Day or face once-in-a-generation losses. The GOP’s problem is especially acute across the South, where the electorate is most inelastic. Republican victories here are predicated on driving up turnout among whites and winning them overwhelmingly, to stave off a Black vote that’s almost wholly Democratic but typically ebbs in non-presidential years. But GOP candidates are at risk on all three fronts this year: Early balloting suggests they’re facing a turnout deficit; polls indicate they’re bleeding some white support; and Black participation is overwhelming. In the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida and even Louisiana, Black voters’ early balloting is far exceeding their showing in the last midterm election, which fundamentally changes what percent of each state’s total vote they make up. There’s still time for GOP candidates to push their sleepy voters. And a good-enough Election Day showing by Republicans will likely prevent electoral catastrophe in the most racially polarized Southern states, such as Louisiana and Mississippi. However, it’s likely too late for Republicans in races across Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas, while South Carolina and Florida are now teetering and hang in the balance. Six days before the election, over a quarter of Black Southerners had already voted. That’s a rate that was higher than turnout from the overall electorate, according to GOP strategist Mark Harris’ research. At the same point in 2022, Black turnout trailed the overall rate by just under 3 points; in 2024, it lagged by nearly 6. Black votes could help propel Democrats to the unlikeliest of victories in the South Carolina Senate race and would land even more stunning upsets in Mississippi, Florida and Louisiana, where Democrats have Black Senate nominees. This year could also finally end the country’s longstanding reluctance to elect Black governors. With the certain reelection of Maryland’s Wes Moore, the only sitting African American chief executive, it’s possible there could be as many as six Black governors next year. One of them may be a Republican, should Byron Donalds prevail in Florida, and in South Carolina the Black Democrat running could at least drive turnout to propel Annie Andrews, who’s running for the Senate. Roy Cooper and Jon Ossoff are all but locks to win Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia, respectively, and James Talarico is increasingly likely to prevail in Texas, too. A Talarico win paired with Jolly springing an upset in Florida would represent the most consequential storyline of this midterm, Democrats picking the GOP’s electoral lock on the two biggest prizes of the Sun Belt outside California. And if it happens, it will be because of lackluster Republican performance, pre-Trump Republicans drifting away and Hispanics shifting back to Democrats. But a historic night, or even a good one, would not have happened without the Blacklash. Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster who coined the term, said 2026 is about to show that “the South got something to say.” Read JMart’s full column here And don’t miss JMart’s latest “On The Road” sitdown with Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock over biscuits, eggs and out-of-this-world grits at The Flying Biscuit a few miles from his church. Watch the full interview … Read the Q&A
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Kathy Hochul on Trump, Mamdani and New York’s future In the latest episode of On the Road, Jonathan Martin sits down with Gov. Kathy Hochul to discuss her working relationship with Mayor Zohran Mamdani, conversations with Trump over immigration enforcement and her approach to governing New York in 2026.
Watch now. |
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SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) on the reported doppelganger scheme by Mary Peltola’s team, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “There’s no way that this went on for a year that they weren’t informing her on. It’s just a complete fabrication. And she’s got caught lying, and she’s still lying to the Alaskan people, to the media, to all of us.” … Jake Tapper: “Are you only going to accept the election results if you win?” Sullivan: “No, I’m going to accept the election results.” — Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) on Democratic fighting in the Michigan Senate race, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I spoke last night to Haley Stevens, and I spoke to Abdul [El-Sayed] as well, and my wonderful friend Haley Stevens wants me to represent to you and everybody else I talk to that she is voting straight down the line on the Democratic ticket, and she’s going to be celebrating with Democrats across the country when we win on Tuesday night.” But but but: Stevens appeared with Republican Mike Rogers at a Detroit church service this morning, after she was uninvited from a Democratic church event today, and said investing in Black businesses is “the policy that Mike’s going to take on.” — Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) on how Democrats would try to end the Iran war if they retake Congress, on “Fox News Sunday”: “The House and the Senate should stop the funding for any further actions in the Iran war. That’s what we did to stop the Vietnam War, and we need to stop this war in Iran. And by the way, the president can’t veto that. The House and the Senate have the power on the appropriations bills. If you believe the war should continue, you should vote Republican. You really should.” 6 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. DEMOCRACY WATCH: The legal fight over the Alaska Senate race goes on, as the state government slammed the Justice Department’s preemptive lawsuit as “meritless” and urged a court to throw it out yesterday, per the Anchorage Daily News. The state AG’s office said it would be “both disturbing and impossible” to segregate ballots for the lesser-known Dan Sullivan, as DOJ had requested Friday. The scandal over whether Peltola’s backers employed dirty tricks to get Sullivan into the race could also have consequences for Alaska’s vote this week on whether to retain its ranked-choice system, NYT’s Anna Griffin reports. Beyond Alaska: In crucial races around the country, more than 40 third-party candidates have gotten some $16.5 million from super PACs that in many cases are linked to national Democrats or Republicans, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports. The California crackdown: Gov. Gavin Newsom warned federal judges in his state that the Trump administration might interfere with the election and try to prevent the certification of a Democratic victory, per Bloomberg. And the first outside analysis of the DOJ’s allegation that there may be 21,000 non-citizens on California’s voter rolls, conducted by UCLA’s Voting Rights Project, found that 42% of the names don’t appear to correspond to anyone on the rolls, per POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney. Some others may actually be citizens. Federal prosecutor Bill Essayli attacked their findings as a “bogus report by [an] activist illegal immigrant rights group.” Mail mess: The head of elections in Broward County, Florida, warned that problems with mail delays might prevent people’s mail ballots from getting counted, urging voters to go in person instead, NYT’s Evan Gorelick reports.
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
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2. THE GREAT GROVEL: There’s an under-the-radar absence in the pitched legal fights against the Trump administration over possible election interference: Most of the major law firms that struck deals to capitulate to Trump’s pressure are sitting out, NYT’s Michael Schmidt and Jim Rutenberg report. Some lawyers at these firms are secretly helping out with such cases, without their bosses’ knowledge. But for Paul Weiss and others, it’s a major shift away from a history of prominent voting rights work. Additional top firms have also steered clear of sensitive cases, as the political chill spreads. 3. MEDIAWATCH: A federal judge threw out Trump’s suit against the WSJ publisher over its reporting about a birthday note to Jeffrey Epstein, per WSJ’s Corinne Ramey and Arian Campo-Flores. It’s the second time judge Darrin Gayles has refused Trump’s effort to sue for defamation, this time dismissing it with prejudice and deeming the president’s claims meritless. 4. FUN READ: Seventeen POLITICO reporters and editors weighed in for a POLITICO Magazine roundup of the most important or telling midterm races — from the most prominent to interesting under-the-radar picks. Dive in to learn about what California’s 11th District will reveal about the intra-Democratic fight over AI risks, whether the Texas Senate race can scramble the national political map, how the New Hampshire Senate race could cement a partisan realignment on trade and more. 5. THE POLITICO POLL: “Progressives and moderate Dems are already jockeying to claim credit for Tuesday,” by POLITICO’s Erin Doherty and colleagues: “[T]he bigger the win, the more Democrats appear inclined to see it as a mandate to run more progressive candidates. A smaller-than-expected victory next week would leave the party — and voters — torn over which direction to go. … More than a dozen Democratic Party operatives and strategists said in interviews that both factions are already preparing to see a blue wave as validation of its own approach.” 6. ALL EYES ON MICHIGAN: “Why El-Sayed’s final campaign swing includes a Black church in Detroit,” by POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels: “Black faith leaders and elected officials in Michigan who support Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said they’re working to overcome a sense of distrust that has hindered the progressive candidate’s appeal among Black voters.”
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A message from Kalshi:  
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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HAPPY HALLOWEEN — President Donald Trump held a big Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago last night, with a jungle theme — though Trump played himself, NYT’s Tyler Pager reports from the scene. Attendees included Speaker Mike Johnson, U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor, and (as Trump put it) “all my rich members” and “the biggest guys on Wall Street.” But the event was scariest of all for Alina Habba Mildon, who received a remarkably harsh tongue-lashing from the president: He said his former lawyer’s $50 million deal with a Venezuelan billionaire was “totally obnoxious and outrageous.” TRANSITION — Warren Ryan is now a managing director in Kroll’s investigations, diligence, and compliance practice. He previously spent a decade at the Treasury Department, mostly in the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes. WEDDING — Ellie Acra, director of public affairs at BAR Communications and a Trump White House alum, and Caleb Stapp, a land acquisitions analyst at Thompson Thrift, got married Oct. 24 in their hometown of Greensburg, Indiana. They met at Purdue University. Pic by Whitney Skogman … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) and Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) … Charles Koch … Apple’s Tim Cook … David Bossie of Citizens United … Matthew Palmisano … Senate Chaplain Barry Black … Katie Walsh Shields … Society for the Rule of Law’s Gregg Nunziata … Vanessa Ambrosini … NYT’s Carlos Lozada … Megan Wilson … Business Roundtable’s Liz Dougherty … Anthony DeAngelo … DOD’s Suzanne Zurn … Grace Bellone … Chloe Taylor of HawkPartners … Tyler Hernandez … Bill Deere of the UNRWA … Leslie Pollner … Sarakshi Rai of The Hill … John Stipicevic … CNN’s Marshall Cohen … Alex Byers … former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) … Cami Bissen … American Conservation Coalition’s Lucero Cantu … Kendra Morgan … Peter Durkin … Frederick Bell … Clare Steinberg … Jess Andrews Vinson … Michael Bartels Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord.
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
Kalshi — the American exchange. Free markets. Fair markets. Transparent markets.
Learn more. |
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