Poll: Voters are excited. Democrats are angry.

Nov 03, 2026

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THE CATCH-UP

Voters across both parties are enthusiastic about Election Day — but Democrats are angrier and more worried than their Republican counterparts.

Majorities of both Democratic midterm voters (54%) and Republican midterm voters (53%) say they’re excited for today’s midterm contest, according to the latest results from the POLITICO Poll, reported here for the first time. That eagerness is being driven by the polar ends of both parties: excitement rises to 64% among MAGA Republicans and 58% of progressive Democrats.

But half of Democrats also say they’re worried about the election, the poll found — 12 percentage points higher than for Republicans. Progressives were three times more likely to say they were anxious than MAGA Republicans (net 39% compared to 13%).

“I believe that we’re on the verge to victory,” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told volunteers yesterday at a canvass launch attended by Playbook in Decatur, Georgia. For a moment, the crowd hushed.

“Y’all are quiet,” Warnock continued. “Y’all believe that? I feel you. You all are nauseously optimistic.”

A chart shows data from the POLITICO Poll

More than a third of Democrats say they feel angry coming into the election, a figure that rose to 40% among progressives. Just 21% of Republicans said they were angry.

Taken together, the results indicate that despite major headwinds for the GOP and polling that paints a persistently rosy outlook for Democrats, Democratic voters are broadly concerned after getting swept out of power across the House, Senate and White House just two years ago.

National Democrats have expanded their map this year deep into GOP territory and believe they are competitive in states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. But the party remains leaderless, factionalized and cash-strapped — and the past decade offers several stinging memories of Democratic disappointment.

Voters and politicos also have reason to doubt recent polls that have Democrats ahead in key battleground Senate races across the map, including in Texas and Kansas, which haven’t elected Democrats to the chamber since 1988 and 1932, respectively. Pollsters tend to struggle to reach GOP voters, a detail the White House and national Republicans have hitched their hopes on in recent days.

The POLITICO Poll also suggests this year’s midterms — for Democrats, at least — is still largely about Trump, whose approval rating is at a near career-low 32%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released today. Democrats up and down the ballot have cast the president as corrupt and tied his policies to the affordability crisis — messaging that’s translated to anger among Democratic voters and concern among Republican voters that their candidates aren’t talking enough about the economy.

Like in most elections, the economy is the top concern this cycle for voters across both parties. But The POLITICO Poll found that while a plurality of Republican midterm voters (44%) said cost of living and affordability are among the top issues they care about, just 23% believed that was the Republican Party’s top priority — a 21-point gap, POLITICO’s Erin Doherty and colleagues report.

Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters said they wanted to hear more about the economy and cost of living from their party.

In Trump’s midterm closing pitch Monday at the Reflecting Pool, he waxed poetic about pipes, grass and the White House ballroom. He said he had “won” the war with Iran before claiming “it’s not a war.” The economy, he said, was unprecedentedly strong.

“For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms,” he said. “But we gave this a very strong shot.”

Stay tuned for all the latest developments throughout the day with POLITICO’s live blog and tune in for POLITICO Elections Live with Adam, Dasha and Will at 9 p.m.

Good Tuesday afternoon and happy Election Day. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. This is Irie Sentner, coming to you from beautiful Atlanta. Get in touch.

A message from OpenAI:

OpenAI is Fighting Deepfakes

Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, OpenAI is continuing our work to help people access reliable voting information. If users try to create realistic imagery around a topic related to election interference, they’ll get a cartoon version instead.

Learn More

5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. FOR YOUR RADAR: “British lobbyist in DC who overstayed visa ordered deported — but given months to leave country,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman: “A prominent Washington lobbyist from Britain who was well known for his work on behalf of Qatar has been detained for overstaying his visa by eight years — though, unlike many others caught in the crackdown on illegal immigration, he has been given months to leave the U.S.

“Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents took Paul Hamill into custody in early October from his residence in Northwest D.C. and held him overnight at a detention center, according to three people familiar with the detention, including a law enforcement official. They were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive situation. Hamill declined to comment. Hamill is planning to leave by the end of the year, according to a person who he recently told. He does not appear to be fighting his final removal order and is instead characterizing the incident as an opportunity to start a new life, according to the person.”

2. WAR AND PEACE: Trump today said he had made a deal with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would cease $4 billion in funding to Israel after ‌this year, though it was not immediately clear what funding he meant or how it would be stopped. The Israeli embassy could not immediately be reached for comment. The Pentagon and the White House did not respond to a request for comment. More from POLITICO’s Ben Johansen and Paul McLeary

The president said on “Fox and Friends” that Israel no longer needed the funding and that some Democrats — including Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed — were using U.S. funding to Israel as a “bad talking point” to criticize Republicans. And others took notice of the timing too: “Amazing how being on the verge of Republicans getting wiped out in the midterms changes hearts and minds,” former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greenewrote on X.

Diplomacy watch: First lady Melania Trump announced she will host Russian and Ukrainian officials at the White House on Thursday to discuss the localized ceasefire she says she brokered in Oleshky, Ukraine. The announcement did not specify who will attend the meeting or provide details about the agenda. More from Ben

Raphael Warnock on the midterms and Democrats’ path forward

In the latest episode of On the Road, Jonathan Martin sits down with Sen. Raphael Warnock in Atlanta to discuss the battle for the Senate, Democrats’ prospects across the South and what he believes the party needs to build a lasting majority.

Watch now.

3. WHAT WE’RE WATCHING: If the “blue wave” really does materialize, we may know as early as 9 p.m. Eastern, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish reports. Some states that are likely to report early returns could spell doom for Republicans and could offer a signal of when the balance-of-power calls could be made. Parts of Kentucky and Indiana will close their polls first at 6 p.m. The first state to post comprehensive results will likely be Florida, where polls fully close at 8 p.m. And early returns out of Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 p.m., could hint at how other Midwest races will unfold later in the night.

But but but: It could be a while before we fully know who will control the House and Senate. In 2022, the AP called control of the Senate four days after Election Day and the House eight days after. And in Maine and Alaska, two key states that are likely to tip the scales of the Senate, ranked choice voting may delay the results. More from AP’s Mike Catalini

4. DEMOCRACY DIGEST: Democratic attorneys general are bracing for potential interference today from the Trump administration and rogue elections officials, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports. “[Trump] is the threat,” California AG Rob Bonta said in an interview. “He’s the interference.” Washington AG Nick Brown said: “I worry a lot about a number of people I would consider election deniers in positions of authority.” The White House brushed aside those concerns. “President Trump has done more than any other President to ensure we have free and fair elections,” said White House spokesperson Lauren Bis.

In the courts: A federal appeals court overnight restored nationwide restrictions on the DOJ’s ability to pressure states to adopt the Trump administration's preferred ballot security measures, Kyle reports. The unusual flurry of activity for the typically slow-moving court led to confusion among Trump allies.

5. THE TURNOUT QUESTION: More than 57 million voters cast their ballots before Election Day this year, shattering early voting records — and Democrats are leading. But that may not translate in the final results, The Washington Sun’s Ayah Ali-Ahmad and Andrew Van Dam report. States that will determine congressional control like Texas, Georgia, Michigan, New York and Ohio don’t report party data. And in most of the states that do, ballots from registered Democrats declined in the final days of early voting.

A message from OpenAI:

TALK OF THE TOWN

REMEMBER TO VOTE — If you’re registered to vote in D.C., here’s where you can cast your ballot.

NEWS YOU CAN USE — “The Best D.C. Bars For Watching the Midterms,” by The Washington Sun: “In case you’re in need of election night plans and want the option of watching the results with a buzz, here is a roundup of places showing the midterms.”

Speaking of: After Playbook reported yesterday that Butterworth’s was booked up by a small, non-political organization that meets there monthly tonight, the MAGA hotspot hangout clarified that the upstairs will be occupied by the DC Republican Party for election night.

ON A TECHNICALITY — D.C. Councilmember Robert White resigned Monday, just one day before he’s expected to win election as the District’s first new delegate to Congress in more than three decades. He did so reluctantly due to a 1970 law that prevents paid elected public officials from being elected to post, saying: “I’m stepping aside even though I don’t believe I need to because we don’t need controversy in this city.” More from City Cast DC’s Ben Brasch

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