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By Eli Okun |
Presented by |
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With help from Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Sunday morning. This is Eli Okun in the driver’s seat today. What’s your pick for the sleeper race of the cycle? Drop me a line.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Two months out, polls indicate a backlash to President Donald Trump has positioned Democrats to retake the House. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP |
START YOUR ENGINES: Labor Day weekend marks the traditional start of the general-election season. It’s the moment campaigns kick into third gear, tuned-out voters begin to pay attention, and Congress mostly abandons the work of legislating to hit the trail back home. Two months out, polls indicate a backlash to President Donald Trump has positioned Democrats to retake the House. Control of the Senate, once considered a reach for Dems, now looks closer to a tossup. Republicans face historical headwinds as the party in power. But a lot can still change. So Playbook talked with members of Congress, candidates and political strategists to run down the midterms’ biggest questions — and the races that will provide some answers. 1. Will economic discontent blot out everything else? The simplest explanation is the likeliest: Americans say the economy and cost of living are their No. 1 issue, people have been struggling with inflation, and incumbents are on track to get punished. A change in the war, either an escalation or peace deal, could provide an October surprise. But its inflationary effects on top of tariffs, housing shortages and social safety net cuts have made it harder for many voters to afford daily life. Republicans hope running on a record of tax cuts and economic policy moves can sway voters — or that other issues will become more salient. One race to watch: Democrats are targeting California’s Central Valley, where GOP Rep. David Valadao’s district has the country’s highest share of Medicaid recipients, and working-class people are struggling. Some drive several hours to Tijuana for cheaper meds amid sky-high gas prices, said Democratic challenger Randy Villegas. “We’re on the front lines of every single one of these issues,” he told Playbook.
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2. Can the GOP make hay of Democrats swinging left? The surge of progressive and democratic socialist candidates dominated Democratic chatter all summer. Now Republicans want to keep it going all fall, painting the entire party as far-left, socialist or communist — including at this week’s midterm convention. Describing their opposition as too extreme will be one of the GOP’s chief strategies for blunting dissatisfaction with Trump, seeking to turn the midterm from a referendum into a choice election. One race to watch: Though most insurgent leftist victories came in safe Democratic races, William Lawrence will provide a rare test case in a swing Michigan House seat. GOP Rep. Tom Barrett told Playbook he’s focused on highlighting Lawrence’s history and drawing a clear contrast for voters: “He tries to distance himself now, but you can’t erase 20 years being a radical activist.” 3. How successfully have Republicans tilted the playing field? Unprecedented Trump-driven gerrymanders snatched several House seats for the GOP, outpacing Democratic attempts to counter. Though the exact margin is still TBD as litigation continues in Missouri, the gambit could give Republicans a crucial bulwark against Democratic gains. One race to watch: After the Supreme Court’s Callais decision, primary turnout indicates outraged Southern Black Dems are showing up big. Could it be enough to save a couple of redrawn seats? Gerrymandering is “not going unnoticed or un-responded to by voters in the district, both Black voters and white voters,” said Rep. Shomari Figures, who’s trying to hang on in Alabama. “People are tired with the gamesmanship.” 4. Can Republicans dance the Trump two-step? Trump’s unpopularity could incentivize Republicans to keep their distance. But the GOP tends to perform better — and beat its polls — when he’s on the ballot, activating the MAGA base. What’s a vulnerable Republican to do? Lean into Trump, advised GOP strategist Rob Burgess, CEO of Connector and a veteran of two Trump campaigns. “I don’t think there’s any need to try to put the president at an arm’s distance,” he said: Instead, Republican candidates should place Trump and a proactive agenda front and center — just like the president himself reportedly plans to do with MAGA Inc. ads. One race to watch: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) is the rare Republican who’s carved out his own moderate brand distinct from Trump, and it has carried him to victory repeatedly in a competitive seat. Can that formula keep Bucks County red again in a blue-leaning year?
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5. How will big money and dark money shape the campaign? The political system is already awash in more than $1 billion of megadonor money and plenty of secretive spending. But Republicans have been waiting to see where and how much two deep-pocketed groups in particular start playing: Trump’s MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk’s America PAC. One race to watch: Like many Republicans outraised by Democratic competitors, Texas AG Ken Paxton could be heavily reliant on super PACs and other outside groups. And as of yesterday, it’s starting to happen: In its first splash of the general election, MAGA Inc. disclosed $10 million for Paxton. 6. How far will the Hispanic boomerang go? Nowhere in Trump’s domestic agenda has he been more aggressive and effective than the immigration crackdown. Despite a calmer southern border, mass deportations that go way beyond violent criminals have triggered a political backlash in Latino communities that swung right hard in 2024. That frustration has compounded sharp affordability frustrations among many Hispanics. So Democrats hope they can halt and reverse Republicans’ recent momentum across the map. One race to watch: The Rio Grande Valley is top priority for Dems to claw back ground in Texas, but if Hispanic voters really pivot hard, the majority-Latino 23rd District sprawling between San Antonio and El Paso could get competitive too. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout told Playbook she hears a lot of “buyers’ remorse” from Trump voters: “They thought they were going to get lower gas prices and lower grocery prices, and we were only going to be focusing on immigration in regard to known criminals, and instead we’re seeing children rounded up and pregnant women and non-violent offenders.” 7. How high can a Democratic wave crest? It would take only a small shift — or a modest polling error in Democrats’ direction — to make this an election in which Dems are not just favorites but behemoths. If the environment gets bluer, the party can expand its targets, but national Democrats will also have to decide how to apportion finite financial resources. One race to watch: The Senate map advantages Republicans, but Democrats hope Adam Hamilton could give them an outside shot in ruby-red Kansas, where GOP Sen. Roger Marshall has started to go negative against the pastor. If Republican voters don’t show up, and Trump keeps flailing with independents, a blue wave might be able to overcome the nation’s hardening partisanship in a state that hasn’t voted Dem for Senate since 1932.
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Watch Susan Collins on On the Road with Jonathan Martin Sen. Susan Collins joins Jonathan Martin at Perry’s Lobster Shack in coastal Maine for a conversation on her reelection fight, Trump’s second administration, the future of the Republican Party and whether there is still room for a political middle.
Watch now. |
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7 MORE THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. BERN NOTICE: Who will pick up the progressive torch from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) once the octogenarian cedes control of the left wing? Sanders sat down with Playbook’s Will Steakin for a rare expansive interview about his legacy. Those around him, like longtime aide David Sirota, have one view. “Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Party could be Barry Goldwater to the Republican Party,” Sirota told Will, referencing the hard-right would-be president who laid the groundwork for Ronald Reagan’s ascension years later. Just don’t ask Sanders about it, Will writes for POLITICO Magazine. “‘It’s interesting,’ Sanders told me when I asked about Sirota’s analogy, in a way that meant he didn’t find it interesting at all. ‘But you know what? It’s not something I stay up nights thinking about.’” It’s a similar answer he has to who might become the left’s standard-bearer after him. “He has no interest in anointing an heir or talking about an heir and rejects the very premise that the movement he built should belong to any one person after him,” Will writes. 2. WAR REPORT: The Iran war escalated anew after the U.S. attacked three Iranian oil tankers, retaliation following Tehran’s attempt to strike U.S. naval ships, per POLITICO’s Scott Waldman. The announcements from CENTCOM and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran not to go after the U.S. military again. “This is just wildly dangerous” as Iran gets more aggressive and targets warships, one analyst told Scott. Overnight, Iran claimed to have hit a U.S. ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. said that was a “total lie.” On ABC’s “This Week” this morning, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said military action, rather than a negotiated deal, may be the route to constraining Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “There may not be a nuclear agreement. It may be simply destroying their capabilities to do it. An agreement may await the next administration in Iran. We simply don’t know that,” he said. “We are degrading their capacity to develop nuclear weapons and ultimately to deliver them if they develop them.” Is the U.S. still in a “war” with Iran? “We’re still in a conflict, for sure,” Wright said.
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A message from Anthropic:  
How a small pathology lab is giving more patients next-day answers |
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3. FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE: U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today after lengthy talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow yesterday. It’s the men’s first trip to Kyiv despite multiple meetings with Putin since last year. Yesterday’s conversations produced no immediate breakthrough in Putin’s Ukraine war, but the discussions of U.S.-Russian economic cooperation could lead to significant announcements in the coming weeks, Bloomberg reports. 4. FAMILY PLANNING: “Trump Officials Draft Plan to Pay At-Home Parents, Using Funds for Working Ones,” by NYT’s Coral Davenport: “The Trump administration is moving to allow married couples with a stay-at-home spouse to collect child care subsidies, a policy championed by Vice President JD Vance, using funds from a federal program intended to assist working parents … The change would create the only federal subsidy to pay parents to stay home and raise their children, one of the most significant efforts to date by the Trump administration to harness federal funds to promote a traditional view of families.” 5. THE DATA DIVIDE: Democrats want to turn the data center debate into a winner for them this fall, and they’re settling on thematic attack lines after months of probing and message-testing, POLITICO’s Jason Beeferman reports. The two themes center on costs and corruption, with explicit instructions to paint data centers as sores for voters in their districts. House Democrats’ campaign arm recently updated the webpage it uses to quietly communicate with super PACs, signaling them to focus on data centers in 11 different battleground races, and an internal House Majority PAC memo advises attacking vulnerable Republicans with language touching on the “conspiratorial nerve that runs through the data center discourse among voters.”
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6. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: Axios’ Alex Isenstadt scooped the lineup of speakers for the GOP’s midterm convention this week. On the list: Trump, Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Karoline Leavitt, Donald Trump Jr., Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), Paxton, Mike Rogers, Michael Whatley, Reps. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) — and many more. 7. COVID CONTRETEMPS: “Inside the D.O.J.’s Investigation of Fauci and Other Virus Scientists,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mueller and Glenn Thrush: Dan Bongino “and other officials helped set in motion a sprawling and aggressive investigative effort that has outlasted his tenure … As part of that effort, F.B.I. agents and federal prosecutors have sought evidence related to at least eight scientists, among them a Nobel laureate and influential former government researchers like [Anthony] Fauci. Investigators have demanded phone, email, grant and payment records, as well as grand jury testimony by scientists.”
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Follow the politics of rising power demand POLITICO Surge is here. This free daily newsletter tracks how AI, data centers, electrification and grid pressure are reshaping energy policy, infrastructure and climate politics.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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IN MEMORIAM — “Robin Morgan, Voice of Radical Feminism, Dies at 85,” by NYT’s Rebecca Chace: “She edited the landmark 1970 anthology ‘Sisterhood Is Powerful,’ led Ms. magazine and helped build the institutions of the modern feminist movement.” FETTERMAN BITES BACK — In response to the latest viral WSJ story in which former aides detailed Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) lack of engagement with his job, Fetterman fought back today in a statement to CNN’s Manu Raju that called the allegations “lies, half-truths, innuendos, smears and anonymous.” He responded to each damaging anecdote, saying he did meet with hospital officials and family members of police officers who’d been killed. CENTER OF ATTENTION — Part of the ceiling in the Kennedy Center’s grand foyer fell down during intense storms this weekend. The theater’s Trump-aligned leaders say it’s the latest evidence that the shutdown and renovations he wants are essential, per the AP. Roma Daravi decried “decades of neglect and deferred maintenance by the previous leadership.” THE SHROUDS — The White House took down drapes that had covered construction work on the North Portico’s column and entrance for months, WaPo’s Dan Diamond reports. The newly revealed scaffolding is expected to come down soon too, all ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s arrival this month. TRANSITIONS — OpenAI is adding Jessica Schumer, Caulder Harvill-Childs and Thomas MacLellan to work on state-level policy, Axios’ Maria Curi scooped. The group collectively brings Democratic, Republican and industry experience; Schumer is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s daughter. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Bill Keating (D-Mass.), Danny Davis (D-Ill.) and Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) … former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie … Carly Fiorina … Fox News’ Gillian Turner … Brittany Bramell Punaro … Brookings’ Nicol Turner Lee … Ryan Mahoney … Clyde Prestowitz of the Economic Strategy Institute … Lizzie Ulmer … Sinclair’s Steve Chaggaris … Dan Ronayne … Jana Barresi of Lowe’s … Joshua Baca … POLITICO’s Jack Larsen and Kari Oakes … John Hagner … BBC’s Krystal Campos … Paul Volpe … NPR’s Claire Harbage … Meredith McPhillips … CNN’s Tala Alrajjal and Scott McCrary … HuffPost’s Brianna Tucker … former Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter … Liz Jennings Shrum … former Reps. Sander Levin (D-Mich.), John Kline (R-Minn.) and Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) … Alina Bondarenko … Bloomberg’s Jason Schechter … Elizabeth Vargas … Eva Miller … Kathy Grannis Allen Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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