Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: Probing the polling problem

Probing the polling problem

Sep 08, 2026

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THE CATCH-UP

A string of unexpected independent poll results in this year’s midterm elections is bringing national attention to a slate of candidates who otherwise would be considered long shots as campaigns turn to the general election sprint — but some recent major misses are raising questions about whether those findings can be trusted.

Independent polls — those conducted without coordination with a campaign — this year have put Democratic Senate candidates ahead in deep-red Texas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1988, as well as Alaska and Iowa, which haven’t since 2008. They have Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading GOP Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, which President Donald Trump won by more than 11 points in 2024. In ruby-red Arkansas, which Trump won by more than 30 points, one independent poll has Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner in a statistical dead heat against GOP Sen. Tom Cotton.

In New Hampshire today, progressive first-time candidate Karishma Manzur will test whether a late surge in a recent UNH poll could spell an upset against Rep. Chris Pappas in the state’s Democratic Senate primary.

Democrats, in turn, are expanding the map and injecting resources into a handful of red-state races where polls are giving them hope against historical trends. Shoffner told Playbook that the Arkansas poll, released last month, has “absolutely, 100 percent” legitimized her candidacy for national Democrats and increased donor interest in her race, though she acknowledged it’s still “an uphill battle.”

“We are a very unique state. This is the argument I've been making to national donors. I think there is a little more interest in it,” she said. In an interview with Playbook back in March, Shoffner slammed national Democrats for jumping on an affordability-centered message without focusing on rural red states like hers, which tend to be the poorest in the country.

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Still, some high-profile polling flops in the primaries are raising the specter of doubt.

In Michigan, a series of polls that projected Abdul El-Sayed beating Rep. Haley Stevens in a double-digit landslide for the Democratic Senate nomination crumbled on primary day, which stretched past sunrise the next morning. El-Sayed ultimately eked out a victory of about 1 point.

And in Wisconsin, a slate of Marquette Law School polls — considered one of the best in the business — had state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist with extremely limited campaign resources, consistently ahead of the pack that top challengers dropped out, only for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley to jump back in late. On primary day, Hong lost to Crowley by about 4,000 votes.

Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll, attributed that miss to the challenges of polling in primaries, which tend to have more candidates and more undecided voters than general elections. In the six previous Senate and gubernatorial primaries the poll has projected over the past 15 years, it got all of the nominees correct — but the percentages were still off, Franklin told Playbook.

The national polling landscape has changed this year, Franklin said. The newfound ubiquity of betting markets is entering into an echo chamber of voters and polls, he said, and high-quality polling is getting increasingly expensive while advancements in AI have made low-quality polling easier and less costly.

Franklin’s takeaway from Wisconsin? Politics is still primarily about the candidates — and the expected outcome can shift week to week, or even moment to moment.

“People look for those polls to be a crystal ball well away from the election, which is sort of the presumption that campaigns don't matter,” he said. “But sometimes campaigns really do matter.”

Good Tuesday afternoon. This is Irie Sentner, locking in for autumn and the final months of the midterms. Get in touch.

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. IRAN LATEST: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s crackdown on Iran continues. The Trump administration today hit Tehran with new sanctions on its aviation industry, the latest escalation of its push to force concessions from Iran by choking off its economy, AP’s Farnoush Amiri reports. Despite Trump’s promise yesterday that oil prices will drop — he projected gas would fall below $2 per gallon — “when we WIN the war with Iran,” the markets aren’t buying it yet: The Dow dropped today and Brent crude is approaching $120 per barrel, per WSJ.

Across the Middle East: Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked four cities in U.S.-allied Saudi Arabia, injuring 73, per Reuters’ Enas Alashray and colleagues. “The reports of such large numbers of wounded suggested the attacks were among the biggest carried out against Saudi Arabia since the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran in February.”

2. UKRAINE LATEST: “Russian strikes on Kyiv resume after pause for Witkoff and Kushner visit,” by POLITICO’s Daria Zakharova: “At least 12 people were killed overnight Monday into Tuesday in the first Russian airstrikes on Kyiv since the three-day ceasefire prompted by the visit of U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, authorities in the capital said.”

3. MARSHALL LAW: “A Doctor Sued 700 Patients for Debts; 81 Were Arrested. Now He’s a Senator,” by NYT’s Sarah Kliff: Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) “filed lawsuits against more than 700 patients with outstanding bills during his decades-long career as an obstetrician-gynecologist, according to a New York Times analysis of Kansas court records. … Patients were arrested in 81 of those cases for missing court dates, the record show. In an additional 13 lawsuits, Mr. Marshall’s lawyers sought warrants but it is unclear whether an arrest occurred. … They also garnished patients’ paychecks and bank accounts. They routinely charged patients an 18 percent annual interest rate.”

The response: “In response to detailed questions from the Times, a spokeswoman for Mr. Marshall said that he spent decades caring for patients regardless of their ability to pay. … ‘Judges issue warrants when people repeatedly miss court dates, not doctors,’ the spokeswoman, Payton Fuller, wrote in a statement.”

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4. CASH DASH: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is launching a new “Ready for the Fight” PAC that plans to invest $20 million into boosting Democratic House candidates for the midterms, POLITICO’s Shia Kapos scoops from Chicago. The PAC is already planning to reserve air time against embattled Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th Congressional District and Brandon Herrera, a Republican candidate in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.

5. THE TURNING POINT: “After Charlie Kirk’s death, Turning Point forges ahead, with eyes on JD Vance,” by WaPo’s Natalie Allison: “To some extent, they’re gearing up for the midterm contest just eight weeks away, in which Republicans are bracing for losses. One reason those losses seem likely is erosion among the young voters Kirk played a major role in rallying in 2024. But Turning Point’s main focus is now 2028, when the group intends to play a key part in getting Kirk’s close friend, Vice President JD Vance, elected president.”

6. TRADING SPACES: E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is preparing to announce a new alliance that will range from trade to security, as both the E.U. and Canada’s relationships with the U.S. continue to erode, Bloomberg’s Andrea Palasciano and colleagues report. Canadian PM Mark Carney will attend von der Leyen’s speech in Strasbourg, France, next week and address European lawmakers the following day.

Meanwhile: France and Canada are joining the U.K. in imposing trade sanctions against illegal Israeli settlements after Israel announced plans to build 1,200 new homes in the E1 area east of Jerusalem, POLITICO’s Dan Bloom and colleagues report from London.

7. HOW WE GOT HERE: “Cyclospora outbreak followed years of declining FDA foreign inspections,” by AP’s Matthew Perrone: “Food and Drug Administration inspections of foreign food sites — including the Mexican farm linked to the ongoing outbreak — are down nearly 35% since 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to agency records reviewed by The Associated Press. The pandemic kicked off a wave of retirements and departures among FDA inspectors that continues to this day.”

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TALK OF THE TOWN

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM — Lonnie Bunch, who has served as the Smithsonian Institution’s secretary for seven years, announced today that he will step down from the top job at the world’s largest museum network amid President Donald Trump’s crackdown on its autonomy. More from NYT’s Robin Pogrebin and Graham Bowley

ARCH ENEMIES — The Democratic veterans’ group VoteVets today launched a new messaging campaign against Trump’s planned massive arch, calling the monument illegal and arguing it would diminish the experience of visiting Arlington National Cemetery, WaPo’s Dan Diamond reports.

WELCOME TO THE FUTURE — “Robots are delivering the impersonal touch to D.C. takeout,” by WaPo’s Liam Scott: “This summer, California-based companies Coco Robotics and competitor Serve Robotics launched in Washington, using robots to deliver food from participating restaurants to hungry residents in neighborhoods including Bloomingdale, Dupont Circle and Logan Circle.”

POLITICO MOVES — POLITICO this morning welcomed its fall 2026 cohort of editorial interns, who will be joining us through December. They include Molly Reinmann (New York), Safa Wahidi (policy), Teresa Do (engineering), Anthony Cruz (energy and environment), Riley Ramirez (California), Seth Pollak (audio/video) and Casey He (breaking).

TRANSITION — Blake Bitter has joined EY’s International Corporate Tax Advisory team as a principal. He previously served as counsel in the Tax Department at Weil, Gotshal & Manges.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.

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