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By Dasha Burns, Will Steakin and Adam Wren |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Monday morning. We’re awaiting Trump’s scheduled announcement at 2 p.m. and wondering whether the briefing room is next in line for a White House makeover. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Donald Trump’s Front Row Joes are tired of the same old act. — Senate Republicans eye the exits after one final push. — The Boldfaces: Pam Bondi, Sean Spicer, Ken Paxton, James Talarico, Dario Amodei, Jack Smith, Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers, Rand Paul, Rob Bonta, Zohran Mamdani, Bruce Blakeman and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Donald Trump’s Joes are starting to feel like they overpaid for the front row. The Front Row Joes — the roving band of the president’s most ardent supporters, many of whom have dedicated portions of their lives to traveling to as many Trump rallies as possible — once represented unbreakable, unconditional, unprecedented devotion. So when Trisha Hope tells Playbook that Trump is “a fraud and liar,” and Rick Frazier says “he can’t be trusted,” Republicans should hear alarm bells. Hope joined the Front Row Joes in 2018 after publishing a book of Trump’s posts on then-Twitter called Just the Tweets. It helped pay for travel to rallies across the country in an RV she bought after giving up her apartment in Texas. During Trump’s first impeachment, she spent two weeks in Washington roaming Capitol Hill to defend the president: “I went to every single senator's office as well as Republican congressmen,” Hope said. “I did everything I could for him.” But now, the one scenario that would bring her back to Washington for Trump’s sake? “If we do lose the midterms and he is impeached again, I will be walking the halls of Congress in support of that impeachment,” Hope told Playbook. Hope saw her faith shaken during a July 8, 2025 Cabinet meeting when a reporter asked then-AG Pam Bondi about the Justice Department’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Before she could answer, Trump interrupted: “Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein? This guy’s been talked about for years.” “It was like a dagger in my heart,” Hope said. “It was like a light switch went on and a veil lifted, and I saw him for who he was, and I have not been able to unsee it since.” The war with Iran vindicated those feelings. “He’s said the war is over 600 different times. He tells us they don't have a military, they don’t have a navy. They’re still blowing up things. It’s just all lies.” Frazier, a founding Joe, shares her frustrations. “Epstein crimes and feeding the industrial military complex … those are big nos for me,” Frazier told Playbook. “He promoted himself as a no-war president. That didn’t work out.” Frazier has been to over 100 Trump rallies and creates content for the group. Now he’s feeling done with politics. “I’m to the point of not going to the polls in November,” he said.
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A message from Anthropic: How SoFlo Solar runs their business with help from Claude
Luis Galarza and Laura Gutierrez founded SoFlo Solar to restore solar power for homeowners left with broken systems after installers went out of business. Claude helps them diagnose equipment across manufacturers, translate for crews, and log every job.
Learn more |
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Sean Spicer, the former White House press secretary who also produced a documentary about the Front Row Joes, told Playbook defections from loyalists like Rick make him more concerned heading into November about the softer voters who helped put Trump over the top without ever fully identifying with MAGA. “Can another candidate even really pull off a rally?” Spicer said, noting it raises bigger questions about the party’s post-Trump future. “It’s like asking where Deadheads go after the Grateful Dead broke up.” Frazier and Hope are only two people, and Frazier himself says “95% of the Front Row Joes are unwavering.” Blake Marnell, widely known inside Trump world as “Brick Suit Guy,” told Playbook he wasn’t surprised some Joes had soured on Trump. “I think it’d be more surprising if you took any American president and tracked the people who followed him over time and didn’t find signs of disillusionment,” he said. Marnell already has a rental car booked for October and plans to crisscross the country for as many Trump rallies as he can. But Frazier lives in Ohio, and Hope lives in Texas — states where 5% or less could make all the difference come Nov. 3. SPEAKING OF TEXAS: Republicans are leading narrowly in all statewide races — except the Senate. Ken Paxton and James Talarico are in a dead heat, both at 48%, according to new polling from Chris Wilson of Status Intel conducted for Texans United for a Conservative Majority and shared exclusively with Playbook. The survey finds Paxton “trails the Republican generic position despite near-universal name recognition. His image is 41% favorable / 55% unfavorable (-14 net), compared with Talarico at 46% favorable / 49% unfavorable (-3 net).” “Partisan fundamentals remain favorable to Republicans,” the memo reads, “but candidate-specific image and definition can materially alter individual contests.” See the memo On today’s Playbook Podcast: Dasha and Will explain why Front Row Joes heading for the exits should alarm the GOP. Plus, the X post from White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino that critics are calling tone deaf, and the biggest AI-enthusiast, data center-friendly party in town.
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A message from Anthropic:  
Claude helps diagnose equipment, translate for crews, and log every job. Learn more |
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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BRAVE NEW WORLD: Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson will meet at the White House tomorrow with the giants of the AI industry. It’s the first action Johnson has pushed after the doomsday warnings from tech CEOs calling to rein in development. But GOP leadership hasn’t formally backed any major legislative action. It also comes soon after the private White House dinner Sunday night with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. BIG WEEK FOR THE SENATE: Senators are eyeing the exits by week’s end, and they could wrap up business as soon as Wednesday. There’s two major items on the to-do list: final passage of the sweeping bipartisan college sports bill, set for 5:30 p.m. today. And the Ratepayer Protection Act that could curb data center costs, which Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to bring up Wednesday. Bonus: there’s increasingly likely chances for a vote to limit member stock trading. The latest from POLITICO’s Inside Congress ONE TO WATCH: Former special counsel Jack Smith will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee at 9 a.m. tomorrow. It’ll be his second appearance before Congress as Republicans probe his investigation into Trump — with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), one of Smith’s greatest critics, at the helm. THEY’RE BACK (ALMOST): The Supreme Court justices will unofficially kick off their 2026-27 term today, coming together for a “long conference” to consider the petitions up for review over the summer recess (SCOTUSBlog’s Amy Howe has a great read from 2025 on how it works). The justices have no shortage of major agenda items to consider, and we could learn which petitions they grant as soon as the conference wraps.
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Shaping American Influence Meridian's 15th Annual Summit, "Shaping American Influence," returns October 16 in partnership with POLITICO.
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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COSTS AND BENEFITS: A new polling memo from Navigator Research being circulated to senior Hill leadership offices this morning is arguing Democrats’ affordability agenda is popular with over 70% of voters they polled, including 55% of MAGA Republicans. And the memo lays out one of Dems’ biggest hurdles: themselves. “Of those who oppose this agenda, skepticism stems from distrust over whether the agenda can become reality – a quarter (25%) say they do not trust Democrats to deliver and a fifth (20%) say they don’t have enough information,” the memo reads. Take a look here MICHIGAN MEN: A new internal poll of the Michigan Senate race shows Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed up over Mike Rogers by four points, 48%-44%. The survey, conducted by Democratic firm GBAO of 800 likely voters Sept. 19-22, also found that Trump's standing in Michigan dropped two points since August, to a 37% approval rate.
- Perhaps most concerning for Republicans, the polling memo notes: “Regardless of which candidate they support, 51 percent of voters say they are more concerned that ‘Mike Rogers won't stand up to Trump,’ compared to 38 percent who are more concerned that ‘Abdul El-Sayed is too risky for the economy.’” It comes as Rogers broke with Trump on the Iran war last week, saying it needs to “end quickly.” See the memo
KNOWING RAND PAUL: What do Democrats, Republicans, lobbyists and even the Trump administration all agree on when it comes to homeland security? They keep running into a Rand Paul-shaped wall. The Senate Homeland Security chair has become an “immovable roadblock” to some bipartisan proposals on everything from immigration to cybersecurity, POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil and Maggie Miller report. And Paul’s unlikely to back away from his tight ship in the Senate’s remaining legislative days. THE NEXT FOIL?: California AG Rob Bonta is itching for a fight with the administration to derail the push to gut climate regulations. He’s run point on lawsuits to stop the administration from ending offshore wind projects, blocking clean energy funding and more. But his fight on greenhouse gas emissions seems bound for a Supreme Court matchup. Bonta joined POLITICO’s Energy Podcast this week, telling Zack Colman he’s “confident because we have the facts and the law on our side.” Read more here … Watch the pod
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A message from Anthropic:  
How SoFlo Solar runs their business with help from Claude |
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. WAR REPORT: After rejecting a ceasefire proposal from Iran, Trump told Axios’ Barak Ravid that he expects mediators will engage in more talks this week. Qatar and other allies have been trying to revive negotiations, but Trump said Iran has “overplayed their hand.” But Iran stuck to its proposal yesterday, as Iranian officials said they were still waiting for a formal response and that only a “negotiated solution” can ease tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, per Bloomberg’s Eltaf Najafizada and Courtney Subramanian. 2. TRUMP ALL THE TIME: The administration has launched a third government-funded TV ad ahead of the midterms, featuring more imagery of Trump set to audio saying “this is the final battle” — and appearing nearly identical to a 2024 campaign ad, CNN’s Aileen Graef reports. The ad aired during two NFL games yesterday, and the administration has compared the spots to previous public service announcements, saying they are “very clearly not campaign ads.” 3. WILL HE, WON’T HE: Trump told reporters he’s looking “very seriously” at a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports to bring down prices, per Bloomberg’s María Paula Mijares Torres. “That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we’re looking at it very seriously — we may do it,” Trump said.
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A message from Anthropic: How SoFlo Solar runs their business with help from Claude
Luis Galarza and Laura Gutierrez founded SoFlo Solar to restore solar power for homeowners left with broken systems after installers went out of business. Claude helps them diagnose equipment across manufacturers, translate for crews, and log every job.
Learn more |
| |
|
4. DYNAMIC DUO: Trump’s bromance with NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani could not be coming at a worse time for the GOP, scrambling efforts to make Mamdani a midterms boogeyman as the GOP rails against socialism nationwide, POLITICO’s Nick Reisman writes. Republicans haven’t changed their messaging track, but operatives are warning that losing Mamdani as a foil looks “very bad” for New York GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Blakeman. 5. HOW FAR THE MAP GOES: How deep into red territory can the environment carry Democrats? They believe Mississippi, where Dems haven’t sent a candidate to the Senate in nearly 40 years but are backing Scott Colom, WSJ’s Maggie Severns reports. “Inspired by success in places like Georgia, they see Colom’s long-shot bid as a down payment for future victory in a state with a large Black population.”
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New: Decoded by POLITICO Decoded is a daily briefing on the people, policy battles and market shifts moving technology forward. It brings POLITICO’s global reporting together in one place so you can see what’s changing and what to watch next.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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OUT AND ABOUT — Australian Ambassador Greg Moriarty and CNN’s David Chalian hosted the 2026 Kangaroo Cup yesterday, a tennis tournament pitting team “administration” officials against team “media” at the ambassador’s residence. Guests enjoyed Australian negronis, light bites and a live tennis tournament on D.C.’s only grass tennis court, with Colin Gramley and Michelle Martinov emerging as victors. SPOTTED: Mike Needham, Grace Newton, Maria Giannopoulos, Samuel Markstein, Stephanie Penn, Shannon Gramley, Meghan Bauer, Patrick Gibbons, Anna Kelly, Jim Goyer, Hailey Borden, Alex Flemister, Olivia Wales, J.P. Freire, Roma Daravi, Lauren Faulkender, Arielle Goldberg, Zoe Sophos, Jeff Kessler, Bernd Debusmann, Hans Nichols, Erik Wemple, Jon Decker, Cathy Merrill, Kit Maher, Betsy Klein, Philip Rucker, Christine Brennan, Seval Oz, Sabrina Sigh, Manu Raju, Aidan McLaughlin, Josh Dawsey, Sam Feist, Francesca Chambers and Tammy Haddad. — A few hundred (mostly male) AI enthusiasts tried to party through the country’s growing AI revolt at Data After Dark, a pro-data center bash at PubKey featuring free drinks like Loudoun County Iced Teas and Closed Loop Spritzes — clever cocktail names that Playbook learned were concocted, down to the ingredients, with help from not one but two AI assistants, ChatGPT and Claude. Jonas Du, Ed Tarnowski and Casey Given co-hosted. SPOTTED: Daniel Di Martino, Nathan Leamer, Jared Zoneraich, Brittany Kaiser, Mike Hewitt, Jasmine Sun, Conner Brown, Bree Hathcox, Adam Thierer, David Meyer, Brock Pierce, Austin Alexander, Jim O’Neill, Adam Aleksic, Reem Ibrahim, Robby Soave, Jon Levine, Neil Chilson, August Atencio, Zach Graves, Ben Leo, Anika Horowitz and Sagnik Basu. — Nearly 5,000 people came out to MS NOW’s Together in Texas event this weekend at College Park Center at the University of Texas at Arlington. MS NOW White House reporter Laura Barrón-López received a standing ovation when she joined Rachel Maddow on stage to talk about covering the Trump White House. SPOTTED: Lawrence O’Donnell, Jen Psaki, Michael Steele, Stephanie Ruhle, Jacob Soboroff, Luke Russert, Ali Velshi, Ari Melber, Rev. Al Sharpton, Alicia Menendez, Symone Sanders Townsend, Eugene Daniels, Stacey Abrams, María Teresa Kumar and Bobby Pulido. MEDIA MOVE — Josh Siegel is now senior energy reporter at Punchbowl News. He most recently worked at POLITICO. ENGAGED — Cassie Semyon, Washington correspondent at Spectrum News, and Bradley Ingram, a VP at Zeno Group, got engaged over the weekend at the Red Fox Inn in Middleburg, Virginia. WEEKEND WEDDING — Andy Picon, an energy and environment reporter at POLITICO, and Claire Hazbun, a Ph.D. student in political science at Georgetown University, got married Friday in Constitution Gardens in Washington, D.C. Pic via Casey Anderson — Jane Fillion, who runs the press shop at the First Five Years Fund, and William Seabrook, federal affairs director for the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, got married Saturday at the Baltimore Museum of Art. The two met in the Longworth House Office Building thanks to Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) and former Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.). Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook’s own Will Steakin … Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-N.D.) … Jen O’Malley Dillon … Scott Mulhauser of Bully Pulpit International … Steve Schmidt … Del Quentin Wilber … Calley Means … POLITICO’s Patrick D’Silva, Ariana Lawson and Meredith Robbins … Bob McGovern … Matt Corridoni of Majority Democrats … Vanessa Valdivia … Katy Foley of Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso’s office …Chrys Kefalas of the National Association of Manufacturers … Brian Rogers of Bullpen Strategy Group … Puck’s Abby Livingston … Molly Crosby of Planned Parenthood … Rory Murphy of MGM Resorts International … Chris Geidner … William Thompson … Jon Summers … Laura Quinn of Catalist … Dan Crawford of Echo Communications Advisors … Ocean Conservancy’s Janis Searles Jones … former Reps. Curt Clawson (R-Fla.) and Steve Largent (R-Okla.) … Marty Machowsky … former Vermont Gov. Madeleine Kunin … Jon Hukill of Crimson Atlantic Communications … Jeanne Allen of the Center for Education Reform … Poppy MacDonald … Helen Aguirre Ferré … WaPo’s Emily Heil … Bhavna Ghia … Catherine Finley of Thorn Run Partners … Kelsie Wendelberger of the State Department … MS NOW’s Alex Tabet … Merchant McIntyre’s Julia Angelotti … Latino Victory’s Katharine Pichardo … American Cleaning Institute’s Wanda Stokes Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord.
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