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By Will Steakin, Adam Wren and Dasha Burns |
Presented by Kalshi |
With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner POLITICO Named Digiday’s Most Innovative Publisher Yesterday POLITICO was named 2026 Most Innovative Publisher by Digiday. We are proud of this honor and of the incredible efforts of our team around the world. We also know the credit starts with you, our readers and subscribers. Everything we have built this year, including our expansions to Australia and Spain, Decoded by POLITICO, the POLITICO Pub and our mobile app, began with the same question: What do the people who count on us need next? Your feedback is how we find the answer, and your trust is what we work to earn every day. Thank you. We are not finished. There is more coming, and we will keep building it for you. — POLITICO CEO Goli Sheikholeslami and Global Editor-in-Chief Jonathan Greenberger Good Wednesday morning. Don’t hesitate to get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Even Republicans can see Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s appeal. — POLITICO Poll: Most American voters are tuned out of Israeli politics. — The Boldfaces: Andrew Kolvet, Matt Gaetz, Marco Rubio, Kevin Warsh, Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, Abdul El-Sayed, Don Bacon, Cassidy Hutchinson, Mark Carney, Neil Young and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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KISSIMMEE, Fla. — Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is defying Republicans’ midterm boogeyman expectations, according to none other than Republicans themselves. The progressive standard bearer’s final midterm blitz through Nevada, Maine, Michigan and Florida showcase appeal that’s “better than a lot of politicians,” a senior Republican operative working on midterm races across the map told Playbook. “Better than most Republicans.” “A big thing that’s broken about consultant brain is the idea that she’s so far underwater it will hurt Democrats and help Republicans,” the operative said. “It doesn’t help us.” The Republican authority on star power agrees. “Somehow I don’t mind AOC that much,” President Donald Trump, who’s also gone out of his way to rub shoulders with NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdami, said last weekend in Michigan. “I don’t know why she doesn’t bug me too much.” Some have a theory. “When he sees a Democrat with game, he can sort of match their energy. It’s almost intuitive,” Andrew Kolvet, executive producer of “The Charlie Kirk Show” and a spokesperson for Turning Point USA, told Playbook of Trump. “AOC and Mamdani, yes they have awful policies and ideas, but they are inarguably the best raw political talents of the far left.” Her campaign stops over the past six weeks look more like those of potential 2028 contenders Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg than those of a progressive firebrand once considered too polarizing for swing districts. AOC will wrap up her midterm push next week with home events in New York after hitting Virginia on Friday, according to a person familiar with the plans. Ocasio-Cortez has drawn relatively consistent support among Democratic midterm voters in The POLITICO Poll’s weekly surveys. Across the past four weeks, 14% to 17% said AOC is among the most beneficial supporters of Democratic candidates. In each of the past two weeks, she ranked among the top five — behind Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, and just ahead of Pete Buttigieg. “She’s always been a team player, she’s always wanted to do everything she can to help Democrats win,” a person familiar with the congresswoman’s thinking told Playbook. “Now people are waking up to the power that she has to bring people out in surprising places and the candidates who invited her to campaign are going to feel really good about it when polls close on November 3rd.” But one Republican populist from Florida isn’t sold. “I think for every young, female, non-white voter AOC turns out in Florida she probably also turns out 1.2 anti-socialist Sunshine State boomers,” former Rep. Matt Gaetz told Playbook. On today’s Playbook Podcast: Dasha and Megan Messerly analyze the GOP shift on AOC, plus Marco Rubio’s rare trip with Trump and what Israel’s election results could mean for the U.S. Listen and subscribe on Apple or Spotify
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Tune in for POLITICO Elections Live: POLITICO is bringing together Adam, Dasha and Will alongside JMart and Senior Executive Editor Alex Burns for up-to-the-minute midterms results on Election Day, beginning at 9 p.m. Eastern. POLITICO.com and the POLITICO app will carry the live show alongside full election night coverage, and the program will also stream on YouTube. Read more in Variety
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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BIBI IN A CORNER: Israel’s preliminary election results pointed to no clear winner after PM Benjamin Netanyahu faced a tough challenge from centrists. It may be weeks before we know whether his opposition can coalesce to form a new government,AP’s Tia Goldenberg and Cara Anna report.
- One thing is already clear: Most American voters are tuned out of Israeli politics, and any new Israeli leader is likely to be greeted by U.S. voters with shrugging indifference, POLITICO’s Alex Burns writes, citing new data from The POLITICO Poll in advance of yesterday’s election. It’s a sharp reality check on any hopes the Israeli election could help reset U.S.-Israel relations and ease tensions over Gaza and the war with Iran.
POLL POSITION: Campaigns are running out of time to pitch their closing messages to swing voters. But voters say political ads can be persuasive — just not for them, according to the latest POLITICO Poll. Over half (57%) say political ads have not changed their own voting plans, but nearly two-thirds believe ads change at least some people’s plans, including 18% who say they influence a lot of people, POLITICO’s Anna Wiederkehr writes in. Only 18% believe political ads do not change anyone’s views.
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- Younger voters, however, are more willing to say ads worked on them: 36% of 18- to 24-year-olds and 34% of 25- to 34-year-olds say ads changed their voting plans, compared with 10% of those 65 and older.
ON THE ROAD: After greeting the Artemis III crew in the Oval Office at 1:30 p.m., Trump is heading back again to — you guessed it — Ohio for his latest campaign rally in Chillicothe at 7 p.m. Meanwhile, VP JD Vance is heading to Kinston, North Carolina, for a rally.
- But who does the GOP really want on the road? Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who Republicans have been clamoring to see stump as one of the party’s strongest messengers, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and colleagues write. He came closer than he’s been yet, after Trump coaxed him on stage yesterday during a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, to tout an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude.
FED UP: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said AI could provide a “huge benefit” to the economy, but the surge of data centers has been stoking inflation and causing shortages in electricity and construction. It’s creating a double-edged sword for Fed policymakers: “Raise interest rates too sharply to fight inflation and risk damaging a key driver of the economy. Move too slowly and risk entrenched inflation,” POLITICO’s Victoria Guida writes.
- We’ll find out today: Warsh will announce the Fed’s latest move on interest rates at 2:30 p.m. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady.
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Special Coverage of Milken’s Future of Health Summit POLITICO’s Pulse will bring you special coverage from the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit, Nov. 11–13, in Washington, D.C. Follow reporting on the ideas, innovations and policy decisions shaping the future of health. Sign up for Pulseto follow the Summit. |
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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WATCH THE MIDWEST: From western Wisconsin to southern Minnesota to eastern Iowa, Americans are feeling the pinch in their pocketbooks. But do they blame Trump enough to vote for a Democrat? POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports why it’s not quite so easy for Dems to claw back gains in rural America. If they can’t win there now, against brutal headwinds hitting the GOP, one House Democrat warned, “it seems like we’re in for a world of hurt in 2028.” THE NEXT LEFT: Abdul El-Sayed seems to be backing away from his prediction to Playbook that he’d win Michigan by 7 points in a few days. “We’ll see,” he told POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky. He’s still standing by his progressive bona fides, but his tactical adjustments at the eleventh hour may be a reality check on some of his bigger aspirations. “He repeatedly redirected questions about what next Tuesday’s results would mean for the progressive movement, saying he was focused on the task at hand,” Lisa writes. WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE GOP: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) wants his GOP colleagues on the campaign trail to know he’s there to help. And while his unifying message might seem generic, to his colleagues it’s emblematic of the shadow battle quietly ensuing to lead what may be a smaller House GOP caucus out of power, POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Meredith Lee Hill report from South Carolina.
- Vibe check: “Interviews with three dozen GOP lawmakers and senior Republican aides revealed the widespread expectation that their House majority is coming to an end and that many are skeptical Speaker Mike Johnson would run for minority leader in that scenario. They are keeping a close eye on two potential alternatives — Jordan, who has run twice before to lead House Republicans, and Majority Leader Steve Scalise.”
COMING ATTRACTIONS: Trump will need near-unanimous support in Congress to clear his $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget after the midterms. Yet he may have just alienated the faction he needs the most: GOP defense hawks, POLITICO’s Connor O'Brien and Mark Satter report. Trump’s recent openness to Russia has alarmed the same GOP lawmakers who’ve been pushing for a bigger defense budget. “He can’t even see Russia as our adversary,” retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told our colleagues. “Why do I want to fund his agenda?”
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
Kalshi — the American exchange. Free markets. Fair markets. Transparent markets.
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. NOT SO FAST: A federal grand jury declined to indict Cassidy Hutchinson, the former White House aide who gave sworn testimony to lawmakers about Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021, WaPo’s Salvador Rizzo and colleagues report. It’s the latest failed attempt by the DOJ to secure prosecutions against one of Trump’s perceived political enemies. 2. TO PUTIN, WITH LOVE: The Trump administration is weighing another economic concession to Russia: easing sanctions on the country’s government investment fund, which the Biden administration had denounced as a “slush fund,” NYT’s Anton Troianovski scoops. Russian officials have pushed for it as part of the moves to ship over Russian diesel.
- Meanwhile in Canada: Talks to calm the trade war with Ottawa have ramped up after Trump and PM Mark Carney spoke by phone last week, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers and colleagues scoop. But no concessions are on the table yet, leaving the prospect of a deal with a way to go.
3. THE LAST FRONTIER: Alaska asked a federal court to dismiss DOJ’s lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race if Democrat Mary Peltola wins, per NYT’s Billy Witz. And the intrigue in Alaska continues down ballot, as voters will decide yet again whether they want to keep or scrap the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which could substantially reshape the state’s competitiveness, POLITICO’s Casey He writes. 4. GETTING OUT THE VOTE: With less than a week to go, the administration is ramping up its messaging around noncitizen voting, making last-minute demands to screen thousands more ballots based on data Democrats have decried as “cartoonishly unreliable,” POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Myah Ward report.
- A federal judge signaled that he’ll reject the DOJ effort to force California to set aside and review votes cast by people on a list of 20,000 registered voters DHS identified as possible noncitizens, Kyle writes in. The Clinton-appointed judge said DOJ can prosecute anyone it identifies as having cast an illegal ballot.
5. COMING TO AMERICA: The Trump administration is granting a visa to failed Brazilian presidential candidate FlΓ‘vio Bolsonaro, who fled out of fear of facing criminal charges and investigations in a number of corruption cases, per POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil and Cheyanne Daniels.
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A message from Kalshi: 
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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FACING THE MUSIC — Neil Young is suing Trump for $10 million for playing on his songs at a rally, The Washington Sun’s Michelle Del Rey reports. “Trump was not granted permission to play the song at the event, according to the copyright infringement lawsuit, filed Monday in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia.” TRANSITIONS — Gabriel Sterling has joined Secure Democracy Foundation as a senior fellow. He previously worked for the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) … Bill Gates … Bradley Cooper of HB Strategies … Oksana Markarova … Sarah Hohman of the National Association of Rural Health Clinics … Rachel Levine … Jessie Hernandez of Capgemini Government Solutions … Jason Rodriguez … CyrΓ© Velez of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office … Justin Discigil … ABC’s Quinn Scanlan … David Finkel … CNN’s Margaret Given … American Chemistry Council’s Kyle Parker … Jonny Slemrod of Harbinger Strategies … Rob Shrum … Steve Hartell of Amazon … Adam Bozzi … Griffin Anderson … former Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.) … Teresa Vilmain … Bridget Walsh of Global Business Alliance … Peter Morris … Doug Band … Meghan Caravano … Zach Hunter Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated Michael Calderone’s work affiliation. He is at N.Y. Mag.
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A message from Kalshi: Americans want the freedom to participate in prediction markets — and they deserve a safe, regulated, and transparent exchange to trade on. That's why we've been federally regulated from day one. We ban insider trading. We ban minors. We ban offshore activity. And we're going to keep it that way.
Kalshi — the American exchange. Free markets. Fair markets. Transparent markets.
Learn more. |
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