Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: High on hopium

High on hopium

Oct 13, 2026

By Adam Wren, Dasha Burns and Will Steakin

Presented by JPMorganChase

With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner

Good Tuesday morning. We're exactly three weeks out from Election Day, and early voting begins today in Georgia and Idaho. Get in touch.

In today’s Playbook …

— Abdul El-Sayed and Chris Pappas show off Democrats’ doubtless demeanor.

— Inside Kamala Harris’ wasted year.

— The Boldfaces: Patrick Ruffini, Nate Silver, Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola, Brooke Rollins, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., James Talarico, Ken Paxton, Kim Jong Un, Kimberly Guilfoyle and more.

DRIVING THE DAY

IONIA, Michigan — Three weeks out from Election Day, Democrats are trying on an uncharacteristic attitude: bravado.

Two purple state Democratic Senate candidates in recent exchanges with Playbook revealed just how cocksure they’ve become as their party eyes what could be its best midterm performance in two decades.

Take Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, who according to one polling average is running ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by just 2.7 points. Does he stand by his primary day prediction to Playbook that he would prevail in the general election by 7 points? “I think I'm going to win by seven,” El-Sayed told Playbook Sunday evening, perhaps buoyed by a crowd of more than 700 people in a deep-red county.

Still?

“Do you see what I'm running against?” El-Sayed said. “He's not a serious person, and they're not a serious campaign, and he's lazy, and he's entitled.” (Rogers, in a statement, told Playbook that El-Sayed was the lazy one, and added: “We’ve knocked over 4.5M doors, Democrats for Rogers signs are flying off our shelves, and we’ve visited every single county — most of them twice. We’re looking forward to beating him in November.”)

Or take Rep. Chris Pappas, who’s running against Republican John Sununu in New Hampshire. In late August, Pappas told Playbook the Granite State is not one the party “can take for granted.” He added that there’s “no path for the majority if Republicans pick up a seat in New Hampshire, and I’m making sure that folks here on the ground know it.”

Earlier this month, Pappas was sounding a new note when Playbook caught up with him on the trail in Concord and asked whether he’d like to see the party campaign apparatus invest more in New Hampshire rather than flirting with Adam Hamilton’s surging bid in Kansas against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall.

“Look at the numbers in Kansas,” Pappas told Playbook. “We’ve got to be playing there. And the fact is, we’ve got to expand the battlefield.”

The posturing points to the question: Are Democrats getting too cocky in a country where true wave elections are less likely than in the past?

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A collection of Republican operatives told Playbook in recent days they’re happy to have Democrats hopped up on hopium. “The whole battlefield is inside three points,” one Republican official familiar with MAGA Inc.’s strategy told Playbook.

Patrick Ruffini, a veteran Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights, said from what he’s seen Democrats may be overestimating how far a favorable political environment can carry them, particularly in deeply Republican states.

Nate Silver's FLIPR midterm forecasting model currently gives Democrats a 73.8% chance of winning the Senate — a figure that may sound familiar to Democrats who remember 2016, when his FiveThirtyEight model gave Hillary Clinton roughly a 71% chance of winning the presidency.

Silver told Playbook the political environment clearly favors Democrats but warned that even small polling errors could upend their hopes of capturing the chamber. "People should be aware that if you have a so-called systematic polling error, then it's not a bunch of independent coin flips," Silver said. "Every single state can be off by a couple of points."

Silver also cautioned against confusing a favorable Democratic environment with a historic landslide. “Waves are normal in midterms. A tsunami where it changes terrain, or a realigning election — inherently people should be skeptical of one of those until it happens,” he said.

Behind the scenes, at least some Democrats are in that skeptic camp. One top Democratic pollster privately fretted to us that the recent round of NYT/Siena polls were “too rosy.”

Watching House Democratic leaders travel around the country looking to expand the map, some members in battleground states are getting worried Election Day will be far closer than leadership expects. (House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ office pointed Playbook to remarks he made over the weekend in Pennsylvania: “We're running through the finish line. We take nothing for granted, but we're on the verge of taking back control of the House of Representatives.”)

“They're expecting a blue wave,” a moderate House Democrat in a close race told Playbook. “It’s starting to feel overhyped. Dems are going to win 20 seats? I don't know. It doesn't feel like that to me.”

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Dasha and Will explain why covering this midterms season feels different and unpack Kamala Harris’ wasted year with POLITICO’s Melanie Mason.

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THE DOWNLOAD

AT THE PODIUM: All eyes will be on new White House press secretary Katie Zacharia at her first briefing at 9:30 a.m. While Zacharia didn’t lobby for the job, she did find a way to audition. Zacharia looked at Trump’s public schedule every day, and monitored his Truth Social, and made sure she was on-air when she assumed he might be watching, according to a person familiar with Zacharia’s strategy.

It worked: Trump watching her on TV got him interested in her for the post, the person said, and a number of high-profile anchors — including from Fox News, Newsmax and OANN — advocated for her selection. Zacharia “has been well regarded in the White House,” a person close to the president said.

THE LAST FRONTIER: Trump will travel to Wasilla, Alaska, today for a rally at 7:30 p.m. Eastern as the state’s Senate race emerges as one of the nation’s most pivotal. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s trailing in the polls behind Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, is out with a new $1 million ad buy across broadcast and streaming in all Alaska markets — a notable amount considering the state only has about 740,000 people, Playbook’s Irie Sentner reports from Anchorage. The ad features a Yupik woman calling Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, “iqluutuq,” or a liar — and flashes images of “lower 48 liberals” Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. Watch the ad

Peltola, meanwhile, raised a state-record $17 million in Q3, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky writes in. (A rep for Sullivan declined to share what he raised.) And Senate Majority PAC is out with a $3.5 million ad, shared first with Playbook, hitting Sullivan for “voting to raise our costs even higher.” Watch the ad

ALSO ON THE TRAIL: VP JD Vance heads to Tyler, Texas — the latest stop in his red-state tour.

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THE FRONT PAGE

HARRIS’ WASTED YEAR: Nearly 20 Democratic strategists and allies told POLITICO’s Melanie Mason and Jeremy White that Kamala Harris has missed chances this year to rebrand herself with voters, if she chooses to run for president again. Rather than assuming a big public presence, wading into ideological debates or getting specific about a vision for Democrats, Harris has stayed fairly quiet, safe and above the fray. Many of Harris’ supporters are coming to that same conclusion, including in her home state, where several donors told POLITICO they’re actively shopping for candidates to back and have no desire to see Harris run.

THAT DUCK WON’T QUACK: Republicans have massive policy to-do lists for the lame duck session, but many are skeptical they can get much done, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Mia McCarthy report. Government funding and the National Defense Authorization Act top the must-pass agenda. Beyond that? It could be a heavy lift to pass the farm bill, surface transportation reauthorization, permitting reform, college sports legislation, a debt limit increase and more. Some Republicans worry Democrats won’t be incentivized to vote yes if they’re about to take the majority; others worry about post-election attendance and tight margins.

2027 DREAMING: If they retake Congress, Democrats are planning to start investigating potential quid pro quos in Trump’s international trade deals, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers and Oliver Ward report. Since they can’t effectively end his tariffs, grilling top officials and corporate executives with an anti-corruption approach could be Democrats’ main political weapon.

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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. TO RUSSIA, WITH LOVE: Trump’s new pivot toward Russia with the diesel deal is intended to help jumpstart talks to end the Ukraine war, Reuters’ Erin Banco and colleagues report. Trump held firm that it was the “right choice” — and that a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is in effect because he made it so. But in reality, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said lethal Russian energy strikes continued. And the backlash to Trump’s move was strong.. It’s “the biggest crisis between Washington and Kyiv” since early 2025, NYT’s Anton Troianovski and colleagues report.

2. TRAIL MIX: Speaker Mike Johnson plans to stick around as House GOP leader even if his party loses the chamber, he told CBS’ Bob Costa. More bites from around the country:

Texas: NYT’s Bayliss Wagner put to bed the false conspiracy theories about James Talarico: Security camera footage shows he was indeed at home, not at an Ohio mental health facility earlier this month. Meanwhile, WSJ’s Elizabeth Findell and colleagues scooped that on New Year’s Eve 2024, Ken Paxton partied in Dubai with his extramarital girlfriend and two fugitives from federal fraud charges in the U.S. (one a big Paxton donor). And they got video.
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed sharpened his stance against advanced AI, laying out an expansive agenda for reining in the tech via a kill switch and a new federal safety agency, POLITICO's Owen Dahlkamp reports.
Kansas: GOP strategist Chris Grant is parachuting in to help out GOP Sen. Roger Marshall’s campaign, Axios’ Alex Isenstadt scooped.
Nebraska: Cryptocurrency super PAC Fairshake is coming to GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts’ aid in Nebraska, per POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman.
Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown said he’d be against impeaching Trump, per The Columbus Dispatch’s Cole Behrens.
And a wild one: An error by ad buyer Cross Screen Media put an anti-Troy Jackson ad by the GOP PAC Defending Main Street on screens in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine, to the tune of $25,000. More from The Oregonian

3. THE ADS: The Trump administration kept airing its taxpayer-funded, campaign-style ads into yesterday despite a federal judge’s order blocking them from doing so, WaPo’s Scott Nover and colleagues scooped. DHS had said it would stop Sunday. The Justice Department apologized in court and said DHS hadn’t seen its email about the temporary restraining order until yesterday.

4. AVIAN FLUB: The Agriculture Department had a major plan to try to stop the avian flu by vaccinating poultry. But Secretary Brooke Rollins pulled back, in part out of concerns about running into HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s anti-vaccine views, POLITICO’s Rachel Shin and Marcia Brown report. USDA employees remain worried that the pause, which staff advised against, will damage efforts to blunt a cold-weather surge.

5. LITTLE ROCKET MAN: A Kim Jong Un face-to-face discussion on Trump’s Asia trip in November? “That would be exciting,” Trump told reporters, sounding open to the prospect. More from Bloomberg

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TALK OF THE TOWN

GREEK TRAGEDY — Kimberly Guilfoyle’s future as U.S. ambassador to Greece looks more grim by the hour since WSJ reported that she asked a Trump donor to pay a $100,000 credit-card bill shortly before her confirmation hearing and offered access to administration officials. “To anyone who knows anything about her, this is really not shocking whatsoever,” a person close to Trump told Dasha, adding that she crossed a big red line for the president: profiting off his name.

The inner circle is also holding their breath waiting for the next shoe to drop: “More could just come out. That's the problem,” the person said. “I mean, she does crazy shit all the time, right? Like who knows what else is out there?”

Guilfoyle did not respond to Playbook’s request for comment. A lawyer for Guilfoyle told WSJ she disputed the authenticity of the messages but declined to provide specifics, telling the outlet she had been paid to speak at events before her nomination and “was owed a balance for traveling to and supporting these patriotic events.”

JUDGE FOR YOURSELF — Federal judge Ana Reyes excoriated Trump officials for cutting down hundreds of trees at East Potomac Golf Links despite ongoing litigation, the latest instance of the administration barreling forth with changes to Washington before they can be stopped. Reyes yelled at administration officials, demanded the testimony of senior staffers and threatened contempt proceedings. The government has lost “all of its credibility” in the case, she fumed. Court proceedings continue today.

LOVE AND MONEY — “A Trump Loyalist, a Turkish Investor and a Battle for Wealth and Influence,” by NYT’s Anatoly Kurmanaev and Tyler Pager: “When President Trump’s former personal lawyer, Alina Habba, married a Turkish businessman [Turhan Mildon] last month, the lavish ceremony cemented their status as a MAGA power couple. … It was a striking official entry into Trumpworld for Mr. Mildon, who nearly a year ago faced the loss of his extensive business interests in Venezuela because of his ties to the inner circle of Nicolás Maduro.”

MEDIAWATCH — A Lesley Stahl piece on “60 Minutes” this weekend about Israeli settler violence stood out given the staunchly pro-Israel opinions of CBS’ leaders. But behind the scenes, it was an “extraordinarily contentious” process that saw Bari Weiss intervene intimately and Stahl consider quitting the show at one point, Status’ Oliver Darcy revealed last night. CBS rebutted the Status piece, which raises the specter of Weiss’ meddling as a continued editorial independence concern, as “a ludicrous, twisted narrative” about standard editorial feedback.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a reception at Joe’s Stone Crab for Rochefort and Virtus 9 to ring in the annual Association of the United States Army Conference: U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach, retired Gen. Edward Daly, Alex Lemond, Mike Walsh, Asli Karahan, Hunter Dean, Wes Spurlock, Rebecca Karabus, Nicole Daly, Conor Daly, Madison Brading and Emeril Camis-Bateman.

TRANSITIONS — Meghan Taira is joining Kalshi to oversee federal public policy, as it staffs up on the Democratic side of the aisle. She most recently worked at Resolution Public Affairs and is a Chuck Schumer alum. … Stephen Lewerenz is now a senior adviser at Nestpoint Group & Associates. He most recently worked for the Senate HELP Committee. … Martha Newell is now director of government affairs at the Carbon Removal Alliance. She previously worked at the National Mining Association.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Ben Koltun, SVP of U.S. government affairs at Citi, and Priya Gupta, a software engineer at Meta, got married Saturday at Whites Ferry Manor in Leesburg, Virginia. The wedding included a POLITICO-themed photo booth. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Jamie Rudin, Celina Holt, Gabrielle Fink, Daniel Fleiss, Maxwell Shulman and Candida Wolff.

— Jonathan Mantz, principal and commerce practice head at BGR Group, and Vickie Williamson, lead attorney at AARP Foundation, got married Sunday at Bernadette’s. Pic … SPOTTED: Terry and Dorothy McAuliffe, Chris Korge, Noah Mamet, Jake Tapper, Howard Wolfson, Andrew Reinsdorf, Ankit Desai and Nora Connors, Louis Lopez, Michael Meehan, Jay Dunn, Jake Perry, Eric Schwerin, Ann Rogers, Andy Barbour, Ed Rogers, Bob Wood, Erskine Wells, Keaghan Ames, Andy Lewin, Syd Terry and Larkin Parker, Justin Rzepka, Peter Lewis, Fred Turner, Maya Seiden and Sean Maloney.

BIRTHWEEK (was Saturday): ABC’s Juhi Doshi

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) … Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) … Fox News’ Harris Faulkner … Gerrit Lansing … former second gentleman Doug Emhoff … Michael Tomasky … NextLadder Ventures’ Clarence Wardell … Tiffany Trump … Ari Fleischer … FGS Global’s Nedra Pickler and Gregg Rothschild … Nate Brand … POLITICO’s Ry Rivard, Emily Cadei and Jenny Scarbrough … Joanna Burgos … The 19th’s Candice Norwood … Dawn Le … K&L Gates’ Dan Crowley … Kris Anderson … former Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Mo.) … Daryl Muller … NBC’s Rebecca Shabad … Judy Pino … BBC’s Alexis Saunders … Carla Sands … Magnitude Media’s Jerry Parshall … Christen Linke Young … Sarah Stevens … Alice Crites … Jack Krumholtz … Richard Siegel … Steve Roberts of Lex Politica … Sarah Callander … former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Donald McHenry (9-0), who celebrated on Nantucket

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