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By Irie Sentner
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Presented by
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THE CATCH-UP |
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President Donald Trump’s power over the Republican Party is waning with voters.
Two-thirds of Americans say the president has lost at least some power in the GOP since the party’s steep midterm losses, according to new results from The POLITICO Poll taken after Election Day, reported here for the first time. That includes 83% of Democratic midterm voters and 57% of Republican midterm voters.
Just 40% of MAGA Trump voters, the president’s most loyal base, say he has just as much power as before.
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The survey, conducted by PF Global, lays bare the degree to which the influence of Trump, the country’s dominant political force for more than a decade, may be fading as he approaches his final two years in the White House — with a hostile Democratic Congress and a Republican Party seeking a path forward from a generational electoral loss.
Most Republicans remain reluctant to publicly point the finger at Trump. But Americans are blaming him for that midterm drubbing, which saw Democrats win at least 255 House seats, 54 Senate seats and 28 governors’ mansions. A majority (53%) of Americans said Republicans lost both chambers because of Trump’s actions since becoming president, including 33% of MAGA respondents.
The key driver of Democrats’ victory, in Americans’ minds, was Trump’s war with Iran. Half of Americans said Democrats would have either lost or won by smaller margins had the president not started the war, and 52% said it was among the biggest failures of Trump’s second term.
Asked what explained Democrats’ win, respondents most often cited cost of living (42%), followed by the Iran war (30%) and Trump’s personal conduct (27%).
Republicans’ electoral wipeout comes as the party searches for a leader to take up Trump’s mantle in 2028. For years, GOP leaders have clung closely to the president. But Trump’s deep unpopularity and the scale of voter dissatisfaction made evident by the midterm results are signaling to ambitious Republicans that sticking with Trump may now be a liability.
Americans still recognize Trump is a force in the party: A plurality (43%) said he has “lost some of his power but he still has a considerable amount.”
And though 56% of them said the GOP should distance itself from Trump and his agenda, a majority of Trump's MAGA base remains loyal. Meanwhile, 59% said the party should move closer to the president and his agenda.
Good Wednesday afternoon. This is Irie Sentner. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at isentner@politico.com.
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6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. BIDEN SPEAKS: Joe Biden gave an exclusive interview to People's Nick Maslow ahead of the release of the former president’s new book, “Promise Me, America,” next week. The 83-year-old detailed his fight with stage 4 prostate cancer (“I feel good,” he said), his decision to seek reelection and more. Some highlights:
- Would he have approached 2024 differently in hindsight? “If I had known that I was feeling lousy because I had cancer, I would have resigned. I would’ve not gone forward, because I don’t think an 80-year-old man with cancer should be running for [president]. But that wasn’t the case ... I believe that on an objective basis, I was the best-equipped person to do the job.”
- On the debate that derailed his reelection bid: “I don’t know anybody who hasn’t made a mistake in a debate. To me, it was not very consequential. First of all, I thought there’d be another debate, which there wasn’t. But notwithstanding the fact that there wasn’t another debate, it didn’t disturb me because it wasn’t consequential.”
- On claims that he hid his cancer diagnosis: “We let the public know when I found out, when I knew what was going on. I think it’s important for a national leader, as president, to let people know they go through some of the very same things that a lot of American people are going through ... I wasn’t hiding it at all.”
2. RIDING FOR RUBIO: After their midterms bloodbath, there’s a growing chorus of Hill Republicans who want to see Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the party’s 2028 nominee, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy report. “Many argue the race to carry the mantle is now wide open — including a faction who view Rubio as a better fit, given that voters may continue to tie [VP JD] Vance to the president’s unpopularity, interviews with roughly two dozen GOP lawmakers reveal,” Meredith and Mia write. The wipeout “certainly makes it harder for [JD Vance],” one GOP senator said. A House Republican called Rubio “our best hope” out of the wilderness.
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3. OVERSIGHT SHOWDOWN: White House counsel Will Scharf is threatening to criminally investigate Democrats over their threats to investigate Trump and his allies when they take control of Congress, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Chris Marquette report. Earlier this week, Scharf sent a letter to incoming House Oversight Chair Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), accusing Democrats of seeking to “abuse the legislative process to intimidate and to interfere with the lawful functioning of government” and that their probes could amount to “blatant criminality.”
Garcia responded in a statement that Congress “will not be deterred by baseless threats.” Kyle and Chris also note the White House’s involvement is a departure from precedent, as the Justice Department is typically the front line for engaging with Congress on oversight.
4. TO RUSSIA WITH LOVE: Jared Kushner today said he and Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow tomorrow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin after two days of trilateral peace talks with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Abu Dhabi ended without clear breakthroughs. Trump’s son-in-law said he and Witkoff would also later travel to Dublin to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. More from CNN’s Alejandra Jaramillo
5. VETERANS DAY READ: “For Families of Those Who Died in the Iran War, a Veterans Day of Profound Loss,” by NYT’s Christina Morales: “‘Veterans Day is very different now,’ said Charles Simmons, the father of Master Sgt. Tyler Simmons, who died in a refueling plane crash in Iraq in March. He added: ‘It takes on a whole different meaning because it’s come home. The bell tolls for thee.’”
6. CALL YOUR MOTHER: A historic number of women won congressional seats in this year’s midterms — and they leaned into their identities in a novel way, POLITICO’s Lauren Fedor and Erin Doherty report. Messaging about the culture war or the historic nature of their races was largely absent, a departure from past cycles, and they instead emphasized bread-and-butter concerns about how rising costs were squeezing their own families.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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FOLKS, THEY’RE … WRITING — The list of ambitious politicians publishing books ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run is long — and growing. Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is publishing “Repair: Healing a Divided Nation” on March 9, AP’s Hillel Italie reports. “In Maryland, I’ve seen what happens when good people do hard things, even in the face of unimaginable odds. This book documents those stories, as well as other memories of service from my life inside and outside of politics,” Moore said in a statement released by his publisher.
And that’s not all: Pete Buttigieg also announced a new book, titled “Next,” out Jan. 26. “Lately, a lot of people have been asking me about what’s next,” Buttigieg said in a cheeky video announcement. “And as chance would have it, I have been thinking about exactly that subject for about a year.”
BIG READ — “How Trump maneuvered to the brink of building his 250-foot triumphal arch,” by WaPo’s Dan Diamond: President Donald “Trump continues to want the arch, potentially emblazoned with his slogan, “Golden Age of America,” built outside the gates of Arlington National Cemetery, administration officials say. To do so, however, he’ll have to navigate new roadblocks: an incoming Congress that has vowed to oppose his projects, federal judges wary of how Trump outraced the courts to build his White House ballroom and growing resistance from Washington’s residents and leaders.”
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “D.C. needs to replace its troubled jail. The cost could be a problem,” by WaPo’s Ben Conarck and Meagan Flynn: “The price tag went from $463 million in 2024 for the initial phase of a two-part replacement plan to $1.4 billion last year for tearing down the 50-year-old structure and building a new jail.”
MEDIA MOVES — Erik Slavin, Amanda Mull and Annalisa Quinn (who wrote The Boston Globe’s viral Western Massachusetts lesbian bar story) are joining The Atlantic as staff writers. Bill Tipper is joining the magazine as a senior editor overseeing the creation and launch of The Atlantic Book Club. More from CNN’s Brian Stelter
TRANSITIONS — Peter Clerkin is joining Rep.-elect Katy Padilla Stout’s (D-Texas) office as chief of staff. He previously served as her campaign manager and is an SBA alum. … Edward Do is joining her office as comms director and advisor on East Asia foreign policy. He previously was her campaign comms director and is a Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) alum. … Shy Jackson is joining Akin’s white collar defense and government investigations practice. She joins from DOJ.
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